Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/02/13

LEADER POST for Monday (25/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5844, 5825 and 5813 while the previous low to watch is 5823. Resistances are at about 5863, 5880, 5889, 5916 and 5936. Three likely +WWs give about 5936 (once above 5819, which is not reached yet), 5958 (once above 5878) and 5963 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5828 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give about 6110 in case of a BO if nifty goes up and remains above 5855. Another falling channel seems to have broken out and can give 5910 unless nifty goes down and remains below 5805.

Nifty once again barely managed to close above 5850 continuing the bearish sentiment. However, it seems to have bounced off 100sma, which is now at 5842. Also, weekly candle is an imperfect inverted hammer while daily candle is an imperfect inverted hammer as well as a likely morning star, both being possible reversal signs. Reversal will be confirmed only if nifty closes above 5852, preferably at/above 5878 (better still 5887). Only if Nifty closes above 6000, it may go up further. If nifty closes below 5850 again, it may go down further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. As mentioned in the previous posts, volatility is increasing as budget and expiry day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.88 and VIX at 16.79. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains above 5870.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5868NF, TARGET 5913, SL 5838.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5870NF, target 5825, SL 5900.

5.         Target of -ww met.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was also met but without giving entry.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but quickly made a lower low before rising sharply to make a higher high than those on Friday. It finally closed -ve but above Friday's close. The target of -ww of the first post was met but the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit. Also, target of reverse trade was met without giving a chance of an entry. The daily candle is a hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.