Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/02/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (14/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5926, 5906, 5896, 5874 and 5820 while resistances are at about 5949, 5958, 5968 and 6012. Three likely +WWs give about 5966 (once above 5947), 5986 and 6037 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5915 and 5888 (once below 5917) (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6080. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes and remains below 5874. A bearish flag gives lower level unless killed above 5949.

Nifty closed above a crucial level of 5930 but is still bearish. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it continues to go down, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI shows +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6120. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.99 and VIX at 15.14. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a flat open unless it remains below 5920.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5964NF, TARGET 5986, SL 5934.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5920NF, target 5897, SL 5850.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of reverse 9.30 strategy trade met.

7.         Targets of both the -WWs and bearish flag of the first post met.

8.         Nifty opened flat and went up for a while but then reacted to make a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of both -WWs and bearish flag of the first post were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and target of reverse trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.