Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/02/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (13/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5913, 5892 and 5837 while resistances are at about 5935 and 6134. Four likely +WWs give about 5971, 5994, 6016 and 6071 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5899 (once below 5920) and 5870 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6075. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes and remains below 5888. A bullish flag gives higher target unless killed below 5912.

Nifty closed above 5900 again but is still bearish. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it continues to go down, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI has developed a +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6150. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.99 and VIX at 15.31.

3.         The first 5tf candle is an inverted hammer. Hence be careful about volatility with possibility of SLs getting hit on either side.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5965NF, TARGET 5992, SL 5935.

5.         Target of first +ww missed by 1 ...... as of now.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Gap being filled.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and made a higher high than yesterday before reacting to fill the gap. It also made a higher low than yesterday before closing -ve but above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was narrowly missed but that of the bullish flag was met. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit late in the day. The daily candle is an imperfect star/inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.