Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/02/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (19/02/13)

1.         Support is about 5845, 5829 and 5780 while resistances are at about 5912 and 5919. Other higher levels to watch are 5964 and 6032. Three likely +WWs give about 5925, 5950 and 5976 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5888 and 5863 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840. Two falling channels seem to have broken out and can give about 5964/6110 unless nifty goes down and remains below 5839/5808.

Nifty closed below 5900 again and is still bearish. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI shows +ve div, (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov, (c) daily candle is a doji and (d) last week's candle was an imperfect inverted hammer. Bulls will hope for nifty to open gap up and close strongly +ve while bears will hope the opposite. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6120. If nifty closes below 5850, it will go down further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase as budget day approaches.

2.         One possibility I see is a rise to 5960-80-6000 till coming Wednesday and then fall to recent low or lower till next Tuesday. But slow rise/fall to eat premium of options.

3.         PCR at 0.93 and VIX at 16.29. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a flattish open unless nifty goes below 5880.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5887NF, TARGET 5862, SL 5917.

5.         If SL is hit, buy below 5925NF, target 5951, SL 5895.

6.         Target of first -ww met.

7.         SL hit.

8.         Target of reverse trade met.

9.         Target of first +ww met.

10.       Nifty opened flat and remained flat till afternoon before making a sharp upmove triggering short covering. It thus made a higher high/low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of first -ww and first +ww of the first post were met. But SL of the 9.30 strategy trade was triggered and the target of reverses trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.