Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/02/13

LEADER POST for Friday (15/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5884, 5870, 5848 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5916, 5941 and 5950. Five likely +WWs give about 5908, 5928 (once above 5900), 5940, 5949 (once above 5910) and 5968 (once above 5923) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5833 and 5815 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6080. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes and remains below 5848. Another falling channel can give about 5964 once nifty breaks above 5916.

            Nifty closed below 5900 again confirming bearish tone. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it closes well below 5880 on Friday, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI shows +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. If nifty closes above 5900 on Friday, it will give an inverted hammer on weekly chart, which is a sign of likely reversal. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6120. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.98 and VIX at 15.09. The pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5900NF, TARGET 5934, SL 5870.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5881NF, target 5845, SL 5911.

5.         SL gone.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and continued to go down. It did recover a bit late in the day but still made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve but below yesterday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is a likely morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.