Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/02/13

LEADER POST for Monday (11/02/13)

1.     Supports are at about 5881, 5869 and 5840 while resistances are at about 5916, 5928, 5941 and 5958. Four likely +WWs give about 5943 (once above 5919), 5979 (once above 5920), 5985 (once above 5909) and 6057 (once above 5959) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5855 and 5830 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6070. BO of a falling channel can give about 6110 if nifty goes and remains above 5924. However, the bottoms of this channel are at about 5862.

       Nifty finally cracked and barely managed to close above 5900 and is still bearish and can go down to about 5828/576...2/5680. It filled up the gap created between 31/12 and 1/1 thereby wiping out the gain made in Jan. The next gap is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it continus to go down, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI has developed a +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. It is still safe if next week's low is not below about 5905 or if it reverses sharply in spite of a lower low.

      Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6150. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

 

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless nifty remains below 5900.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5935NF, TARGET 5959, SL 5905.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5896NF, target 5870, SL 5926.

5.         SL hit.

6.         For practical purposes, SL of reverse trade also considered hit. Now, uptrend once again.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but reacted thereafter making a lower high/low than those on Friday. It tried to recover late in the day but couldn't and closed -ve and also below Friday's close. However, Nifty fut closed +ve and almost flat w.r.t. Friday's close. Nifty fut just touched the SL of 9.30 strategy before reversing. It then hit the SL of reverse trade also. However, target of original trade was not met. The daily candle of nifty fut is a likely but imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.