Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/02/13

LEADER POST for Monday (18/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5878, 5869, 5851, 5831, 5816 and 5780 while resistances are at about 5916, 5927 and 5980. Five likely +WWs give about 5916, 5923, 5938 (once above 5897), 5954 and 5965 (once above 5908) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5828 and 5802 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840. Nifty came within 14 of it on Friday and may still achieve it. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes down and remains below 5831. Another falling channel can give about 5964 once nifty remains above 5876. A bullish flag can give 5919 unless killed below 5870.

 

           Nifty closed... below 5900 again confirming bearish tone. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. However, the possibility of "three black crows" on weekly chart mentioned in previous posts fizzled out. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI shows +ve div, (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov, (c) daily candle is a likely morning star and (d) weekly candle is an imperfect inverted hammer, both of which can be signs of reversal. For reversal to happen, nifty must close well above 5900 (preferably at/above 5920) on Monday, preferably with a gap up open. Also, next week's candle should be a big green one. The latter may create a Mat Hold pattern, which is a very rare but bullish sign.

 

            Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6120. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.96 and VIX at 15.24. The pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a flat open unless it remains below 5870.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5877NF, TARGET 5850, SL 5907.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5912NF, target 5939, SL 5882.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Nifty opened flat and rose slowly. It did react late in the day but managed to make a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing +ve and also above Friday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The total range was narrow at about 33. The daily candle is a doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.