Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/02/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (28/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5788, 5767 and 5724 while resistances are at about 5824, 5843 and 5907. The two gaps yet to be filled are at 5727 and 5648. Six likely +WWs give about 5839, 5856, 5864 (once above 5821), 5875, 5888 (once above 5818) and 5955 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5787 and 5766 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently).

A falling channel can give about 6110 in case of a BO if nifty goes up and remains above 5815. Another falling channel seems to have broken out and can give 5838 unless nifty goes below 5735. A falling wedge also seems to have broken out and can give about 5870 unless nifty goes below 5720. A bullish flag can give about 5858 unless killed below 5774. A rising channel can give about 5750 in case of a BD unless nifty goes up and remains above 5823. A HnS can give about 5550 in case of a BD unless nifty goes up and remains above 5970.

Nifty closed just below 5800 and can still be bearish. However, there is a mild +ve div on all indicators and the daily candle is a bullish Harami. Two unfilled gaps on higher side are 5855 and 5943. If nifty closes above 5900, it may go up further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will be high, Thursday being a budget and expiry day.

2.         PCR at 0.79 and VIX at 16.23. Pre-open data suggests a flat to -ve nifty after a gap up open unless nifty goes and remains above 5870 for some time.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5821NF, TARGET 5795, SL 5851.

4.         Target of first +ww was met soon after open.

5.         9.30 strategy target met.

6.         Target of first -ww also met.

7.         Target of second -ww also met.

8.         The rising channel BD also gave its target.

9.         Nifty opened gap up and remained flat for about two hours before falling sharply. It thus made a higher high and lower low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and both the -WWs of the first post were met as also the target of BD of a rising channel. The daily candle is a bearish engulfing to last two days' candles and can be a Last Engulfing Bottom, a likely reversal sign.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/02/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (27/02/13)

1.         Support is at about 5717 while resistances are at about 5780, 5806, 5840, 5882 and 5917. The two gaps yet to be filled are at 5727 and 5648. Four likely +WWs give about 5833 (once above 5796), 5879 (once above 5807), 5885 (once above 5816) and 5950 (once above 5805) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give about 6110 in case of a BO if nifty goes up and remains above 5830. Another falling channel can give 5838 in case of a BO above 5788. A falling wedge can give about 5870 in case of a BO above 5780. A bearish flag can give much lower level unless killed above 5800. A HnS can give about 5550 in case of a BD.

Nifty crashed and close below 5800 in line with the bearishness it displayed over the last few days. However, there is a mild +ve div on STS. If nifty closes above 5925, it may go up further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. As mentioned in the previous posts, volatility is increasing as budget and expiry day approaches.

2.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5801NF, TARGET 5825, SL 5771.

3.         If SL is hit, sell above 5762NF, target 5737, SL 5792.

4.         SL hit.

5.         SL of reverse trade hit.

6.         Nifty opened gap up and reacted immediately not only to fill the gap but also to visit yesterday's low to make a double bottom. It rose sharply thereafter to close +ve and also above yesterday's close. But it still made a lower high than yesterday (Nifty fut also made a lower low). The SLs of either side trades of 9.30 strategy were hit but neither side targets were met. The daily candle is a bullish Harami.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/02/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (26/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5841, 5821, 5811 and 5804 while resistances are at about 5857, 5898 and 5926. Three likely +WWs give about 5889, 5943 (once above 5813, which is not reached yet) and 5968 (once above 5877) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5790 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give about 6110 in case of a BO if nifty goes up and remains above 5845. Another falling channel can give 5970 in case of a BO above 5895. A bullish flag can give 5902 unless killed below 5843.

Nifty once again closed above 5850 confirming reversal indicated by Friday's inverted hammer, as indicated in Friday's post, however small it may be. Also, it not only recovered after crossing below 100 sma but RSI now shows a mild +ve div for the first time in many days. Only if Nifty closes above 6000, it may go up further. If nifty closes below 5800, it may go down further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. As mentioned in the previous posts, volatility is increasing as budget and expiry day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.87 and VIX at 16.73.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5817NF, TARGET 5788, SL 5847.

4.         -ww target met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy trade met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a gap and kept sliding throught the day, making a new low since 30th Nov '12 thereby filling up the gap created on 30th Nov '12. The targets of -ww as well as 9.30 strategy trade were met. The daily candle is a big, Red Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/02/13

LEADER POST for Monday (25/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5844, 5825 and 5813 while the previous low to watch is 5823. Resistances are at about 5863, 5880, 5889, 5916 and 5936. Three likely +WWs give about 5936 (once above 5819, which is not reached yet), 5958 (once above 5878) and 5963 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5828 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give about 6110 in case of a BO if nifty goes up and remains above 5855. Another falling channel seems to have broken out and can give 5910 unless nifty goes down and remains below 5805.

Nifty once again barely managed to close above 5850 continuing the bearish sentiment. However, it seems to have bounced off 100sma, which is now at 5842. Also, weekly candle is an imperfect inverted hammer while daily candle is an imperfect inverted hammer as well as a likely morning star, both being possible reversal signs. Reversal will be confirmed only if nifty closes above 5852, preferably at/above 5878 (better still 5887). Only if Nifty closes above 6000, it may go up further. If nifty closes below 5850 again, it may go down further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. As mentioned in the previous posts, volatility is increasing as budget and expiry day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.88 and VIX at 16.79. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains above 5870.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5868NF, TARGET 5913, SL 5838.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5870NF, target 5825, SL 5900.

5.         Target of -ww met.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was also met but without giving entry.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but quickly made a lower low before rising sharply to make a higher high than those on Friday. It finally closed -ve but above Friday's close. The target of -ww of the first post was met but the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit. Also, target of reverse trade was met without giving a chance of an entry. The daily candle is a hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/02/13

LEADER POST for Friday (22/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5839, 5823 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5867, 5879, 5889 and 5947. Three likely +WWs give about 5931 (once above 5825, which is not reached yet), 5951 (once above 5879) and 5964 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5820 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give about 6110 in case of a BO if nifty goes up and remains above 5872. Another falling channel can give 5910 in case of BO above 5866.

Nifty fell sharply and barely managed to close above 5850 confirming the bearishness signalled by yesterday's morning star. The previous low to watch is 5823 while 100sma is at about 5839. Only if Nifty closes above 6000, it may go up further. If nifty closes below 5850 again, it may go down further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. As mentioned in the previous posts, volatility has started increasing as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.88 and VIX at 16.94. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains below 5837.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5810NF, TARGET 5869, SL 5780.

4.         Target met without giving an entry. Wait for a chance of an entry again. Higher possible target is 5889NF.

5.         Target of 5840of BD of the rising channel being mentioned for the last two weeks met today.

6.         Nifty opened gap down but soon went up. However, it reacted late in the day. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve but below yesterday's low. The target of BD of a rising channel being mentioned since last week was met in the open itself. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy trade but without giving an entry. The daily candle is an imperfect inverted hammer and also an imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/02/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (21/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5925, 5905, 5886 and 5830 while resistances are at about 5956, 5972, 5978 and 6010. Three likely +WWs give about 5966, 5973 and 6010 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5929, 5871 (once below 5916) and 5865 (once below 5927) (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes down and remains below 5886. A bullish flag gives higher target unless killed below 5915.

Nifty closed above 5900 again and indicates that higher levels are possible. However, the daily candle is an imperfect morning star, a likely reversal sign. Hence, bulls will hope for a gap up open with +ve close while bears will hope for the opposite. Only if Nifty closes above 6000, it may go up further but will be bullish only in case of a weekly close above 6140. If nifty closes below 5900 again, it may go down further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty up. Volatility will gradually increase as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.92 and VIX at 15.60. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5955.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5915NF, TARGET 5884, SL 5945.

4.         NS must go below 5900 to fall further.

5.         Target of first -ww was met.

6.         (Post by LKL) Target achieved….

7.         Targets of last two -WWs also met.

8.         Nifty opened gap down and continued to slide, making a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of all the three -WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/02/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (20/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5920, 5908, 5898 and 5889 while resistance is at about 5953. Other higher level to watch is 5969. Three likely +WWs give about 5962, 5969 and 5990 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). One likely -WW gives about 5884 (once below 5926) (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling channels seem to have broken out and can give about 5964/6110 unless nifty goes down and remains below 5888. A bullish flag gives higher target unless killed below 5907.

Nifty closed strongly above 5900 and gave impression of a reversal indicated by yesterday's doji. The signs in favour of bulls are (a) CCI shows +ve div, (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov and (c) last week's candle was an imperfect inverted hammer. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6140. If nifty closes below 5900 again, it may go down further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase as budget day approaches.

2.         I feel there will be follow through tmrw also but one can short around 5975-85 with about 6000 as SL. But 5970 should be crossed to begin with.

3.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains above 5970.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5953NF, TARGET 5925, SL 5983.

5.         Targets of first two +WWs met.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap but reacted quickly thereafter, still making a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve but above yesterday's close. The target of first two +WWs of the first post were met as also the target of BO of a falling channel. The total range was about 33. The daily candle is like a morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/02/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (19/02/13)

1.         Support is about 5845, 5829 and 5780 while resistances are at about 5912 and 5919. Other higher levels to watch are 5964 and 6032. Three likely +WWs give about 5925, 5950 and 5976 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5888 and 5863 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840. Two falling channels seem to have broken out and can give about 5964/6110 unless nifty goes down and remains below 5839/5808.

Nifty closed below 5900 again and is still bearish. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI shows +ve div, (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov, (c) daily candle is a doji and (d) last week's candle was an imperfect inverted hammer. Bulls will hope for nifty to open gap up and close strongly +ve while bears will hope the opposite. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6120. If nifty closes below 5850, it will go down further. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase as budget day approaches.

2.         One possibility I see is a rise to 5960-80-6000 till coming Wednesday and then fall to recent low or lower till next Tuesday. But slow rise/fall to eat premium of options.

3.         PCR at 0.93 and VIX at 16.29. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a flattish open unless nifty goes below 5880.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5887NF, TARGET 5862, SL 5917.

5.         If SL is hit, buy below 5925NF, target 5951, SL 5895.

6.         Target of first -ww met.

7.         SL hit.

8.         Target of reverse trade met.

9.         Target of first +ww met.

10.       Nifty opened flat and remained flat till afternoon before making a sharp upmove triggering short covering. It thus made a higher high/low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of first -ww and first +ww of the first post were met. But SL of the 9.30 strategy trade was triggered and the target of reverses trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/02/13

LEADER POST for Monday (18/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5878, 5869, 5851, 5831, 5816 and 5780 while resistances are at about 5916, 5927 and 5980. Five likely +WWs give about 5916, 5923, 5938 (once above 5897), 5954 and 5965 (once above 5908) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5828 and 5802 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840. Nifty came within 14 of it on Friday and may still achieve it. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes down and remains below 5831. Another falling channel can give about 5964 once nifty remains above 5876. A bullish flag can give 5919 unless killed below 5870.

 

           Nifty closed... below 5900 again confirming bearish tone. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. However, the possibility of "three black crows" on weekly chart mentioned in previous posts fizzled out. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI shows +ve div, (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov, (c) daily candle is a likely morning star and (d) weekly candle is an imperfect inverted hammer, both of which can be signs of reversal. For reversal to happen, nifty must close well above 5900 (preferably at/above 5920) on Monday, preferably with a gap up open. Also, next week's candle should be a big green one. The latter may create a Mat Hold pattern, which is a very rare but bullish sign.

 

            Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6120. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.96 and VIX at 15.24. The pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a flat open unless it remains below 5870.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5877NF, TARGET 5850, SL 5907.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5912NF, target 5939, SL 5882.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Nifty opened flat and rose slowly. It did react late in the day but managed to make a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing +ve and also above Friday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The total range was narrow at about 33. The daily candle is a doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/02/13

LEADER POST for Friday (15/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5884, 5870, 5848 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5916, 5941 and 5950. Five likely +WWs give about 5908, 5928 (once above 5900), 5940, 5949 (once above 5910) and 5968 (once above 5923) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5833 and 5815 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6080. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes and remains below 5848. Another falling channel can give about 5964 once nifty breaks above 5916.

            Nifty closed below 5900 again confirming bearish tone. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it closes well below 5880 on Friday, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI shows +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. If nifty closes above 5900 on Friday, it will give an inverted hammer on weekly chart, which is a sign of likely reversal. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6120. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.98 and VIX at 15.09. The pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5900NF, TARGET 5934, SL 5870.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5881NF, target 5845, SL 5911.

5.         SL gone.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and continued to go down. It did recover a bit late in the day but still made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve but below yesterday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is a likely morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/02/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (14/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5926, 5906, 5896, 5874 and 5820 while resistances are at about 5949, 5958, 5968 and 6012. Three likely +WWs give about 5966 (once above 5947), 5986 and 6037 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5915 and 5888 (once below 5917) (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6080. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes and remains below 5874. A bearish flag gives lower level unless killed above 5949.

Nifty closed above a crucial level of 5930 but is still bearish. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it continues to go down, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI shows +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6120. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.99 and VIX at 15.14. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a flat open unless it remains below 5920.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5964NF, TARGET 5986, SL 5934.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5920NF, target 5897, SL 5850.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of reverse 9.30 strategy trade met.

7.         Targets of both the -WWs and bearish flag of the first post met.

8.         Nifty opened flat and went up for a while but then reacted to make a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of both -WWs and bearish flag of the first post were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and target of reverse trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/02/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (13/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5913, 5892 and 5837 while resistances are at about 5935 and 6134. Four likely +WWs give about 5971, 5994, 6016 and 6071 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5899 (once below 5920) and 5870 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6075. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6110 unless nifty goes and remains below 5888. A bullish flag gives higher target unless killed below 5912.

Nifty closed above 5900 again but is still bearish. The next gap at lower level to be filled is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it continues to go down, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI has developed a +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6150. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.99 and VIX at 15.31.

3.         The first 5tf candle is an inverted hammer. Hence be careful about volatility with possibility of SLs getting hit on either side.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5965NF, TARGET 5992, SL 5935.

5.         Target of first +ww missed by 1 ...... as of now.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Gap being filled.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and made a higher high than yesterday before reacting to fill the gap. It also made a higher low than yesterday before closing -ve but above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was narrowly missed but that of the bullish flag was met. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit late in the day. The daily candle is an imperfect star/inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/02/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (12/02/13)

1.     Supports are at about 5893, 5873, 5855 and 5819 while resistances are at about 5915, 5920 and 5931. Three likely +WWs give about 5958 (once above 5910), 5997 (once above 5896) and 6057 (once above 5910) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5885, 5850 and 5825 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6075. BO of a falling channel can give about 6110 if nifty goes and remains above 5915. However, the bottoms of this channel are at about 5856. A bearish flag gives lower target unless killed above 5908.

       Nifty closed below 5900 and is bearish. The next gap at lower level... to be filled is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it continus to go down, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI has developed a +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. Also, daily candle of nifty fut is a likely but imperfect morning star, a sign of reversal. For such a reversal, nifty will have to open gap up and close +ve.

       Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6150. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

 

2.     AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5926NF, TARGET 5956, SL 5896.

 

3.     Target of first -ww missed by less than 2.

 

4.     Nifty opened down with a slight gap, tried to go down but later started rising to make a higher high/low than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of the first -ww was narrowly missed. Apart from the fact that it was a green daily candle, it was a relatively uneventful day, the total tange being about 40.

 

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/02/13

LEADER POST for Monday (11/02/13)

1.     Supports are at about 5881, 5869 and 5840 while resistances are at about 5916, 5928, 5941 and 5958. Four likely +WWs give about 5943 (once above 5919), 5979 (once above 5920), 5985 (once above 5909) and 6057 (once above 5959) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5855 and 5830 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6070. BO of a falling channel can give about 6110 if nifty goes and remains above 5924. However, the bottoms of this channel are at about 5862.

       Nifty finally cracked and barely managed to close above 5900 and is still bearish and can go down to about 5828/576...2/5680. It filled up the gap created between 31/12 and 1/1 thereby wiping out the gain made in Jan. The next gap is at 5727. Also, nifty is in the danger of forming "three black crows" on weekly chart if it continus to go down, which will be very bearish. The only hope for bulls is that (a) CCI has developed a +ve div and (b) nifty is as oversold as it was in third week of Nov. Bulls will thus hope that history will repeat. It is still safe if next week's low is not below about 5905 or if it reverses sharply in spite of a lower low.

      Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6150. Only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

 

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless nifty remains below 5900.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5935NF, TARGET 5959, SL 5905.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5896NF, target 5870, SL 5926.

5.         SL hit.

6.         For practical purposes, SL of reverse trade also considered hit. Now, uptrend once again.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but reacted thereafter making a lower high/low than those on Friday. It tried to recover late in the day but couldn't and closed -ve and also below Friday's close. However, Nifty fut closed +ve and almost flat w.r.t. Friday's close. Nifty fut just touched the SL of 9.30 strategy before reversing. It then hit the SL of reverse trade also. However, target of original trade was not met. The daily candle of nifty fut is a likely but imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/02/13

LEADER POST for Friday (08/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5926, 5918 and 5866 while resistances are at about 5945/50, 5957 and 6128. Seven likely +WWs give about 5957, 5968, 5981, 5991, 6011, 6031 (once above 5965) and 6057 (once above 5973) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5906 and 5888 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a rising wedge was met and now that of a BD of a rising channel mentioned last week is 5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6060. BO of two falling channels can give about 6110/5990 if nifty goes and remains above 5957/67. However, the bottoms of these two channels are at about 5893 and 5922.

Nifty closed below 5950 and is clearly bearish. A close below 5930 may take it down to about 5895/5828/5762/5680. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but will be bullish only above a weekly close of 6150. The daily candle is a doji/inverted hammer as well as an imperfect morning star, a likely reversal sign. For such a reversal, nifty must open gap up on Friday and close well above 5960, particularly because it's a weekly close. I feel that only global clues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 1.0 and VIX at 14.89.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5940NF, TARGET 5915, SL 5970.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5979NF, target 6005, SL 5949.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Original 9.30 strategy target met.

8.         Targets of both -WWs met.

9.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, kept going down slowly but remained flat thereafter before suddenly tanking late in the afternoon, making a lower high/low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of both -WWs of the first post were met. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy trade were hit on either side before giving target of the original trade.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/02/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (07/02/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5956, 5946, 5941 and 5888 while resistances are at about 5967, 5976 and 6126. The previous low level to watch is 5940. Six likely +WWs give about 5973, 5991, 6002, 6048 (once above 5982), 6052 (once above 5977) and 6100 (once above 5989) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5951 and 5891 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a wedge and a rising channel mentioned last week are 5940/5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6060. BO of a falling channel can give about 6110 if nifty goes and remains above 5975. BO of another falling channel can give 5990 if nifty goes up and remains above 5967. However, the bottoms of these two channels are at about 5911 and 5949.

Nifty closed below the crucial level of 6000 once again and is still bearish. The level of 5940 looks certain now. However, if it closes below 5940, next possible levels are about 5895/5828/5762/5680. Only if Nifty closes above 6000 (particularly 6035) it will go up further but is bullish only above a weekly close of 6150. I feel that only global clues and/or liquidity can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February as budget day approaches.

2.         PCR at 0.95 and VIX at 14.26. Pre-open data suggests -ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5941NF, TARGET 5910, SL 5971.

4.         First 5tf candle of NF is a doji and I won't be surprised by a sharp reversal with high volatility. If so, 6000NF is not ruled out.

5.         If SL is hit, buy below 5968NF, target 6000, SL 5938.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Target of first +ww met.

8.         Target of first -ww was also met.

9.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and rose to fill the gap but could not rise much further. It thus made a lower high/low than those yesterday before closing flat but below yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and first -ww of the first post were met due to volatility. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The target of BD of the first rising wedge mentioned last week was also met. The daily candle is a doji/inverted hammer as well as an imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/02/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (06/02/13)

1.   Supports are at about 5945, 5912 and 5894 while resistances are at about 5970, 5981, 5996, 6007, 6012 and 6125. The previous low level to watch is 5940. Four likely +WWs give about 5970, 6047 (once above 5977), 6064 (once above 6016), 6095 (once above 5987) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5918 and 5906 and 5820 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). The target of BD of a wedge and a rising channel mentioned last week are 5940/5840 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6058. BO of a falling channel can give about 6110 if nifty goes and remains above 5985. However, the bottom of this channel is at about 5928. A small horizontal channel will give 5992/5926 upon BO/B...D.

Nifty closed below the crucial level of 6000 once again and is bearish. The level of 5940 looks certain now. However, if it closes below 5940, next possible levels are about 5895/5828/5762/5680. Nifty may go up only if it closes above 6035 but is bullish only above a weekly close of 6160. The daily candle of nifty spot is a likely morning star while that of nifty fut is also an inverted hammer, a possible reversal sign, which can be confirmed only if nifty opens up with a gap and closes +ve and well above 5987 (say about 6005 or more). I feel that only global clues and/or liquidity can save nifty. Volatility will gradually increase in February.

 

2.   PCR at .96 and VIX at 14.61. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless nifty goes/remains below 5960.

 

3.   AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5970NF, TARGET 5943/27, SL 6000.

 

4.   Target of first +ww was met in open itself.

 

5.   Nifty opened up with a small gap but went down soon thereafter, making a higher high/low than those yesterday and filled the gap before closing -ve but slightly above yesterday's close (nifty fut closed slightly below yesterday's close). Target of first +ww of the first post was met but not that of 9.30 strategy as the total range was only about 37 (nifty fut range was about 27).

 

 The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.