LEADER POST for Monday (29/07/13)
1. Supports are at about 5840
and 5800 while resistances are at about 5935, 6002 and 6040. Previous gap on
lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5830, 5750 and
5630. However, it may be noted that 200dma is at about 5852, 26wema is at about
5861 and 50wma is at about 5792. Also, TL joining lows of shoulders of IHnS
gives about 5851. Hence and nifty may take support there. Four +WWs can give
about 5942 (once above 5888), 5951 (once above 5893), 6010 (once above 5953)
and 6022 (once above 5946) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of
now). A -WW can give about 5817 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned
presently). Two falling wedge break outs can give about 6045/85 if nifty
remains above 5878.
Nifty fell in spite of a gap up open and
closed below 5900 and is clearly bearish. Also, a mild -ve div is seen on
weekly chart. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs and a mild recovery is
likely. About 5850 can be the SL for longs while about 6110 the SL for shorts,
both SLs being on daily close basis. A break below 5830 can result in lower
levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in
the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity
can prevent further fall.
2. PCR unchanged at 1.0 and VIX up at
16.78. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a slight
gap down open unless it remains above 5870 by afternoon.
3. AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE
5895NF, TARGET 5871, SL 5925.
4. Target met.
5. Nifty opened down with a small gap,
reacted a bit and then recovered again. However, it fell again in the afternoon
to make a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing -ve and also
below Friday's low. The target of 9.30 strategy trade was met.
The intraday chart
of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.
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