Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (19/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6005, 5955 and 5935 while resistances are at about 6067, 6110 and 6182. Three +WWs can give about 6070, 6119 and 6188 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5974/5921/5900 (once below 6050) and 5962 once below 6028 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700. Another smaller bullish flag can give about 6077 unless killed below 6005.

Nifty rose sharply to close above 6000 i.e. at a new high since 30/05 and looks bullish. Also RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much and higher levels look very likely. However, weekly candle is in a danger of becoming a hanging man and hence Friday's close is very important. Also, a break below 5935 will be worrisome but a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up

2.         PCR up at 1.36 and VIX down at 18.27. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain but possibly +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6057 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6034NF, TARGET 6008, SL 6064.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6073NF, target 6099, SL 6043.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, making a higher high. However, it could not sustain and slid down later in the day, still managing to make a higher low than Thursday. The target of first +ww of the first post was narrowly missed. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side due to high volatility but neither side targets were met. Friday was a NR7 day and the weekly candle is an imperfect hanging man.

8.         The whole week’s chart shows bullish tone. However, lower high and lower low made on Friday after the initial morning high may hint at lower levels on Monday. Tight SL for longs seems to be about 6000 but otherwise it is 5970. If SL is not triggered, much higher levels are possible next week and the one after that.

The intraday chart and week’s chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.