Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (09/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5782 and 5767 while resistances are at about 5825, 5844, 5873, 5897 and 5927. The unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 5868/5682. Four +WWs can give about 5877, 5910 (once above 5819), 5934 and 5942 (once above 5829) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5720 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty recovered after a gap down opening and managed to close above 5800 but again below 200 sma and thus confirming the evening star of Friday and the hanging man of last week. The trend still appears to be bearish. Only if nifty closes above 50 sma (about 5922), it will give hopes to bulls. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.19 and VIX up at 19.34. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5834 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5860NF, TARGET 5894, SL 5830.

4.         Nifty opened up with a gap and went up to make a higher high but reacted immediately only to recover again. It made a higher low before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The total range was narrow at about 30 and hence none of the targets were met. The gap on upper side was narrowly missed from getting fully filled up. Today was a NR7 day again. The daily candle is like an evening star.

         The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (08/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5830, 5797 and 5749 while resistances are at about 5887, 5899 and 5933. The unfilled gaps on the lower side are at about 5837/5682. Three +WWs can give about 5884 (once above 5855), 5886 (once above 5865) and 5942 (once above 5831) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5833 (once below 5880), 5788 (once below 5863) and 5744 (once below 5886) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

           Nifty fell in spite of a gap up opening due to rising oil prices and falling INR, as was mentioned in Friday's thread. Though the day and week closed comfortably above 200/50 sma respectively, the daily candle is like an evening star while the weekly candle is like a hanging man, both bearish signs. The confirmation of this bearish sign will come if Monday closes Red and below Friday's close, particularly after a gap down open. If nifty closes above 50 sma (about 5924), it will give hopes to bullis. A close below 200 sma (about 5832) may cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

 

2.         PCR up at 1.18 and VIX up at 18.67.

3.         (Posted by LKL) “9:30 Strategy - SELL above 5856 NF target 5794 SL 5886. Target met without chance of entry".

4.         First lower gap of first post filled up soon after open.

5.         Targets of first two -WWs of the first post met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a gap and continued to go down. However, it recovered after about an hour. It made a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's close. The first gap on lower side was filled up soon after open. Targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met. The target of 9.30 strategy was also met soon after open but chance of an entry did not materialise. The daily candle is a hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (05/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5815, 5797, 5781 and 5739 while resistances are at about 5857, 5933 and 6038. The unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 5858/5682. Four +WWs can give about 5897 (once above 5833), 5904, 5941 (once above 5834) and 6043 (once above 5901) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5826 (once below 5855), 5767 (once below 5860) and 5739 (once below 5920) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty rose even after a gap up open and again closed above 5800 and also above 200sma. The daily an...d weekly charts show +ve divergence. If this week closes below 50 sma, which is presently at about 5747, it can cause further fall. Bulls can have hope if this week closes above 5747 and if Friday closes above 200 sma, which is presently at 5830. If Friday closes above 50 sma, which is presently at 5923, it will have bullish tone. Considering that a lot data, particularly the non-farm payroll data, is expected from US on Friday night, oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Likely levels on higher/lower side are about 6000/5951/5875 and about 5825/5756/5675.

3.         Nifty opened up with a big gap thereby filling up previous unfilled gap on the higher side. It made a higher high but could not sustain and reacted to make a higher low before closing -ve but above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met. The daily candle is like a evening star while weekly candle is like a hanging man. Today was also a NR7 day but not for nifty fut.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-04/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (04/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5749, 5690 and 5645 while resistances are at about 5808, 5826 and 5870. The unfilled gap on the lower side is at about 5682. Three +WWs give about 5888 (once above 5845), 5894 (once above 5825) and 5943 (once above 5837) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs give about 5668 (once below 5721) and 5615 (once below 5827) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag gets killed above 6012. A daily bullish flag gets killed below 5700.

Nifty fell even after a gap down open and closed below 5800 and also below 200sma and is clearly bearish. The weekly chart still shows +ve divergence. Bulls have hope only if about 5740 is held. A weekly close below 50 sma, which is presently at about 5747 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of the market. VIX and PCR are still high and can cause sharp volatility. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         If about 5740 is held, likely higher levels in next few days are 5822, 5865, 5919, 6016 and 6080. If about 5740 is broken convincingly, likely lower levels are 5720, 5659 and 5608.

3.         PCR down at 1.09 and VIX up at 18.91. Pre-open suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5794 by afternoon.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5797NF, TARGET 5837, SL 5767.

5.         Target achieved.

6.         Buy triggered again.

7.         Target met again.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and rose sharply to make a higher high. However, it then fell sharply but managed to make a higher low before recovering and closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met twice after chance of an entry came twice.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (03/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5830, 5805 and 5744 while resistances are at about 5879 and 5933. The unfilled gap on the lower side is at about 5682. Five +WWs give about 5879 (once above 5852), 5900, 5943, 5950 and 6008 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs give about 5844, and 5820 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag gets killed above 6012.

Nifty reacted but managed to close above 5850. The immediate trend looks to be +ve but the short term trend is still bearish. The rally of last few days still looks more due to short covering than heavy fresh buying. The weekly chart shows +ve divergence. If 5935/5932 NS/NF is crossed, expect a mini rally and once above 5973, 6000/6040 is possible. Much higher levels are possible only in case of a close above 6134. At the same time, if nifty doesn't remain above 5879 on Wednesday, 5833 and 5791 are possible. A weekly close below 5730 can cause further fall. VIX and PCR are still high and can cause sharp volatility. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR flat at 1.12 and VIX up at 18.21. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5812 by afternoon.

3.         Targets of both the -WWs of the first post met upon open.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STARTEGY, SELL ABOVE 5809NF, TARGET 5772, SL 5839.

5.         Target met without giving chance of an entry.

6.         Nifty opened down with a big gap and kept going down but it seemed to stabilise in the afternoon. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of both the -WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-02/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (02/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5876, 5849 and 5816 while resistances are at about 5933, 6017 and 6037. The unfilled gap on the lower side is at about 5700. Four +WWs give about 5941, 6004, 6011 and 6036 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs give about 5845 (once below 5872) and 5820 (once below 5858) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag gets killed above 6012.

Nifty rose again but failed to close above 5900. The immediate trend looks to be +ve but the short term trend is still bearish. The rally of last three days still looks more due to short covering than heavy fresh buying. The daily candle is once again a bullish Marubozo. Also, weekly chart shows +ve divergence. If 5935/5932 NS/NF is crossed, expect a mini rally and once above 5973, 6000-6040 are possible. Much higher levels are possible only in case of a close above 6134. At the same time, a weekly close below 5730 can cause further fall. VIX and PCR are still high and can cause sharp volatility. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR down at 1.12 and VIX up at 18.09. Pre-open data suggests uncertainty after a slight gap down open with a likely +ve bias unless nifty remains below 5885 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5863NF, TARGET 5833, SL 5893.

4.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap and tried to go up but failed and slowly slipped to make a lower high and higher low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The total range was about 46 points and hence none of the targets were met nor was SL triggered. The daily candle is an inside bar or an imperfect Harami. Also, today was a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (01/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5809, 5800, 5782 and 5763 while resistances are at about 5858, 5877, 5887 and 5907. The unfilled gap on the lower side is at about 5700. Four +WW gives about 5864, 5883, 5939 and 6004 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW gives about 5758 (once below 5825) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 5807.

Nifty opened up with a big gap and rose sharply thereafter to close above 5800. The weekly and monthly charts are still bearish though the week closed above 34 ema/50 sma and month closed above 5 sma. The rally of last two days looks more due to short covering than fresh buying. The daily candle is a bullish Marubozo while the monthly candle is an imperfect hammer. Also, weekly chart has developed +ve divergence. If 5864 is crossed, 5900 is possible and if 5932 is crossed, 6000 is possible. At the same time, if about 5571 is crossed on downside, further fall is possible. VIX and PCR are still high and can cause sharp volatility. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.15 and VIX at 17.95. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it remains above 5835 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5835NF, TARGET 5874, SL 5805.

4.         Target of first +ww of the first post met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met but without getting chance of an entry.

6.         Target of second +ww of the first post met.

7.         Target of bullish flag of the first post also met.

8.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap and remained in a narrow for a while before taking off again. It made a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing +ve and also above Friday's close. The targets of first two +WWs and the bullish flag of the first post were met. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy trade but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is once again a bullish Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.