Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/10/13

LEADER POST for Monday (07/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5895, 5850 and 5780 while resistances are at about 5959 and 6040. 200/100 dma are at about 5840/5805 while 50 wma is at about 5824. Three +WWs can give about 5937 (once above 5876), 5979 and 5995 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give 5877, 5872 (once below 5897), 5863 and 5846 (once below 5880) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). BO of a falling wedge can give about 6125 while BO of a falling channel can give 6030 if nifty if nifty continues to go up. A bearish flag can give 5875 unless killed above 5917.

Nifty rose after a gap down open but could not close strongly and just managed to close above 5900. The daily candle is an inverted hammer but may not be of concern as it is strictly not at the top of an uptrend. Also, weekly candle is bullish piercing and the +ve div on weekly chart persists. Nifty should remain above 5893 to sustain the upmove. If it goes below 5820, it may fall sharply. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5889 by afternoon.

3.         Immediate trend down, target 5893NF, SL 5975. Wait for 9.30 data.

4.         Target met before 9.30 itself.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5980NF, TARGET 5893, SL 6010.

6.         Targets of all four -WWs of the first post met.

7.         Target of bearish flag of the first post met.

8.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and fell sharply to make a lower low. But it rose sharply in the afternoon but could not make a higher high. Finally it closed mildly +ve but flat w.r.t. Friday's close. The targets of all the four -WWs and the bearish flag of the first post were met in the first 10 min. The target of 9.30 strategy trade was also met in the first 10 min i.e. without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.