Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/09/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (17/09/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5818, 5790 and 5745 while resistances are at about 5870, 5900 and 5945. 200/100 dma are at about 5840/5818 while 50wma is also at 5814 while a gap on lower side is at 5680. Five +WWs can give about 5883, 5900/16/30 and 5956 (once above 5802) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WW can give about 5745/30 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge BD can give about 5580 and a rising channel BD can about 5320 in case nifty continues to slide. A HnS can give about 5780 (and lower levels) if nifty remains below 5888. A horizontal channel can give about 6050 after a BO above 5945 or 5700 after a BD below 5810.

Nifty fell to close below 5850 but at/above 100/200 dma for the fourth time in a row after crossing below 200 dma. It also broke below 50 wma and bounced back. Daily candle is bearish engulfing but weekly chart is still bullish. A close below 5795 could be bad but a close below 5730 could be very bad. Weekly resistance is at about 5989. Oil price and INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. This week's FOMC meet and RBI policy review may mean nervous and/or range bound markets. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5824 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5844NF, TARGET 5806, SL 5874.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5855NF, target 5894, SL 5825.

5.         SL triggered.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and remained within a range before rising a bit later in the day. It made a lower high and higher low than yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. Daily candle is an inside bar and mildly bullish piercing. Today was also a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.