Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/09/13

LEADER POST for Friday (13/09/13)

1.         Support is at about 5800 while resistances are at about 5867, 5935 and 5985. 200/100 dma are at about 5836/5814 while 50wma is also at 5814. The nearest gap on lower side is at 5680. Four +WWs can give about 5887 (once above 5842), 5913 (once above 5809), 5914 (once above 5845) and 5923 (once above 5802) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5799 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge BD can give about 5580 and a rising channel BD can about 5320 in case nifty remains below 5880. A falling channel BO can give about 5930 if nifty remains above 5861. A HnS can give about 5780 (and lower levels) if nifty remains below 5888.

       
           Nifty reacted sharply but managed to close just above 5850 and abo...ve 100/200 dma. It thus confirmed bearishness of Wednesday's hanging man. It once again crossed below 200 dma before bouncing up. However, further fall is likely as daily candle is bearish engulfing. Nifty will have to close well above 5797 to avoid an inverted hammer on weekly chart. Break of 5795 could be bad but break of 5730 could be very bad. Oil price and INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. Additional tension due to likelihood of a US attack on Syria seems to be going away for the moment. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 5829 by afternoon.

3.         Pre-open candle was like a doji and hence choppiness may be seen.

4.         Once again, target met before 9.30.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5812NF, TARGET 5879, SL 5782.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and tried to rise but failed. It didn't react much either and thus made a lower high and a higher low than yesterday before closing +ve but flat w.r.t. yesterday's close (though nifty fut closed above yesterday's close). Target of 9.30 strategy was met before 9.30 again i.e. without giving chance of an entry. Daily candle is an imperfect Inside Bar and an imperfect inverted hammer. Also, Friday was not just a NR7 day but a NR26 day.

The week’s chart shows likelihood of a range bound market next week pending important news to come from FOMC and US Fed.

The intraday and week’s chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.