LEADER POST for Monday (16/09/13)
Nifty managed to close just above 5850 again and above 100/200 dma. For the third time it crossed below 200 dma before bouncing up. It also broke below 50 wma and bounced back. Friday was a NR 7 (actually NR26) day. Daily candle is an Inside Bar, a likely sign of reversal. For reversal to be confirmed, nifty must close at a higher high. Break of 5795 could be bad but break of 5730 could be very bad. Oil price and INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. Additional tension due to likelihood of a US attack on Syria hasn't gone away. Next week's FOMC meet and RBI policy review may mean nervous and range bound markets. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.
1. Supports are at about
5805 and 5740 while resistances are at about 5921, 5940, 5968 and 5981. 200/100
dma are at about 5840/5819 while 50wma is also at 5811. Four +WWs can give
about 5921, 5940, 5968 and 5981 (once above 5802) (+WWs with higher targets are
not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5795 (-WWs with lower targets
are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge BD can give about 5580 and a
rising channel BD can about 5320 in case nifty remains below 5880. A falling
channel BO can give about 5930 if nifty remains above 5861. A HnS can give
about 5780 (and lower levels) if nifty remains below 5888.
Nifty managed to close just above 5850 again and above 100/200 dma. For the third time it crossed below 200 dma before bouncing up. It also broke below 50 wma and bounced back. Friday was a NR 7 (actually NR26) day. Daily candle is an Inside Bar, a likely sign of reversal. For reversal to be confirmed, nifty must close at a higher high. Break of 5795 could be bad but break of 5730 could be very bad. Oil price and INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. Additional tension due to likelihood of a US attack on Syria hasn't gone away. Next week's FOMC meet and RBI policy review may mean nervous and range bound markets. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.
3. Chart data not same as odin data. Also,
first 5tf candle is a doji. Hence be careful.
4. AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5952NF,
TARGET 6021, SL 5922.
5. If one goes by chart data, it's sell
above 5968NF, target 5931, SL 5998.
6. Trade as per chart data gave its target.
7. SL hit.
8. Targets of first two +WWs and that of
BO of falling channel of the first post were met at open itself.
9. Today's gap filled up.
10. Target of -ww missed by just 3 and hence
considered met.
11. Nifty
opened up with a big gap to make a higher high and started reacting slowly.
However, it tanked after announcement of inflation numbers to make a lower low
than that on Friday. It then rose a bit to close strongly -ve and slightly
below Friday's low.
For the fourth time in a row, it managed to bounce back from below 200 dma to
close at that level again. Because of wild intraday swings, targets of
first two +WWs and -ww as well as that of BO of falling channel of the first
post were met. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was
met without giving chance of an entry. Daily candle is bearish engulfing.
The
intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown
below.
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