Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (23/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5390, 5360, 5320 and 5298 while resistances are at about 5420, 5455 and 5585. The 100/200 wma are at about 5471/5440. Four +WWs can give about 5442, 5500, 5509 and 5584 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5398, 5381, 5340 and 5320 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty rose sharply and barely managed to close above 5400 again giving some hopes to the bulls. A +ve div persists on all TFs upto daily. However, unless Wednesday's high is crossed, higher levels are unlikely. But a close above 5420 on Friday will give a hammer on weekly, which is a likely reversal sign. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. However, such a low INR has also become attractive for FIIs and some fresh buying is expected unless it goes above 66. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Bulls will pray for a favourable outcome of Jackson Hole statement from US.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5428 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5427NF, TARGET 5379, SL 5457.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5412NF, target 5460, SL 5382.

5.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Target of reverse trade also met but without giving chance of an entry.

8.         Buy trigger level was missed by less than 1 point.

9.         Target of reverse trade met again.

10.       Target of first two -WWs and first +WW of the first post were met.

11.       Nifty opened up with a gap but quickly reacted to fill the gap and make a higher low. Then it shot up to make a higher high before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first two -WWs and first +WW of the first post were met. Also, target of 9.30 strategy was met but without giving chance of an entry. The SL was hit later and target of reverse trade was met twice, first without giving chance of an entry and later after missing buy trigger by less than 1 point. The daily candle is an imperfect hanging man while the weekly candle is a hammer.

The week's chart shows that further recovery is likely.

The intraday and weekly charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.