Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/08/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (22/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5250 while resistances are at about 5330, 5420 and 5580. Previous unfilled gap is at about 5238. The 100/200 wma are at about 5469/5440. Five +WWs can give about 5313, 5335, 5374, 5400 and 5472 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty crashed again and barely managed to close above 5300. Much lower levels look imminent. Though a +ve div persists on lower TFs, the same on daily charts has vanished. However, today's candle, which is bearish engulfing, can also be considered to be an outside bar, if it is at the end of a downtrend. If so, it is a likely reversal sign, confirmed only if Wednesday's low is not broken and instead the high is broken. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Bulls will have to pray for favourable outcome of Wednesday night's FOMC minutes and weekend's Jackson Hole statement from US.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 5483 by afternoon.

3.         Immediate trend up, target 5299NF, SL 5225. Wait for 9.30 data.

4.         Again target met before 9.30. Now to see whether we get a chance of an entry later.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5229NF, TARGET 5299, SL 5199.

6.         Targets of first two +WWs of the first post met.

7.         Targets of third and fourth +WWs of the first post also met.

8.         Nifty opened gap down, rose sharply only to come down again before rising sharply to end at the day's high. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. Targets of four +WWs of the first post were met. Once again target of 9.30 strategy was met before 9.30 without giving chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.