Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/08/13

LEADER POST for Monday (12/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5534, 5500, 5464 and 5415 while resistances are at about 5595, 5625 and 5740. A weekly TL is at about 5400 while the 100/200 wma are at about 5461/5438. A number of +WWs can give about 5709/5758 (once above 5631), 5700/5762 (once above 5607), 5726 (once above 5562) and 5731 (once above 5570) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5541 (once below 5581), 5518 (once below 5563) and 5454 (once below 5571). Three falling wedges/channels BO can give about 5695/5805/6045 if nifty goes and remains above 5512/5560. A rising wedge can give about 5515 in case of BD below 5562.

Nifty closed above 5550 but is still bearish. However, a +ve div persists on lower TFs and also +ve div has appeared on CCI and STS on daily and weekly charts. Also, daily candle is an imperfect bullish engulfing one and Thursday was a NR7 day for bank nifty and its daily candle was an inside bar. Hence, some recovery is likely. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5630. A close below 5500 can cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         PCR flat at 0.95 and VIX down at 21.19. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5606 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5604NF, TARGET 5640, SL 5574.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5594NF, target 5557, SL 5624.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Target of original trade met but without getting chance of an entry.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap, reacted a bit before rising sharply. It did react somewhat late in the day. However, it still made a higher high and low than those on Thursday before closing mildly +ve but well above Thursday's close. The SLs of either side trade of 9.30 strategy were hit and target of original trade was met but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.