Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/08/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (29/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5188 and 5155 while resistances are at about 5317, 5410 and 5436. 200 wma is at about 5444. Four +WWs can give about 5361, 5400, 5431 and 5542 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5221 and 5140 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5520 if nifty remains above 5300. A bullish flag can give higher levels unless killed below 5190.

Nifty rallied strongly from day's low and closed well above 5250. The bearish sentiment is still exists. However, +ve div gives hopes a recovery. Also, daily candle is a hammer and imperfect morning star, a likely reversal sign. Weekly resistance is at about 5535. Oil price and INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. Additional tension is the likelihood of a US attack on Syria. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Thursday being an expiry day, trade carefully.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5316 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5323, TARGET 5288, SL 5353.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5332NF, target 5368, SL 5302.

5.         SL was hit.

6.         Target of first +ww of the first post met.

7.         Target of reverse trade met but without giving chance of an entry.

8.         Target of second +ww of the first post met while that of third +ww just missed.

9.         Target of bullish flag of the first post met.

10.       Nifty opened up with a gap, remained flat for about two hours before breaking out to make a higher and low than yesterday. It closed strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs and bullish flag of the first post were met while that of third +ww was narrowly missed. SL of 9.30 strategy was hit after first reaching within 10 points of the target and then target of reverse trade was met but without getting chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (30/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5315, 5290 and 5155 while resistances are at about 5410, 5441, 5477, 5510 and 5565. 200 wma is at about 5446. Three +WWs can give about 5437, 5453 and 5565 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Six -WWs can give about 5365/55 (once below 5403), 5347 (once below 5371), 5284 (once below 5361), 5227 (once below 5329) and 5216 (once below 5316) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5520 if nifty remains above 5300. A rising wedge and a rising channel BD can give 5305/5125 if nifty remains below 5405.

Nifty rallied strongly again and closed just above 5400, giving some hopes to the bulls. The medium term bearish sentiment is still exists. However, +ve div gives hopes a recovery. Weekly resistance is at about 5526. If Friday closes above 5372, weekly candle will be hammer while if it closes above 5557, monthly candle will be a hammer, an extremely rare candle. Oil price and INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. Additional tension is the likelihood of a US attack on Syria. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a flattish open unless it remains above 5408 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5402NF, TARGET 5360, SL 5432.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5397NF, target 5440, SL 5367.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of reverse trade met without getting chance of an entry.

7.         Target of reverse trade met without getting chance of an entry.

8.         Target of second +ww also met.

9.         SL of reverse trade also hit and target of original trade met without getting chance of an entry.

10.       SL hit again.

11.       Target met again but without getting chance of an entry.

12.       Nifty opened flat and rose sharply to make a higher high. But it fell sharply again, made a slightly lower low than morning and then shot up to make a higher high than morning before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy were hit thrice on either side and targets of respective trades were met without getting chance of an entry even once. The weekly candle is once again a hammer, twice in a row, which probably has never occurred before.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/08/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (28/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5425 and 5155 while resistances are at about 5315, 5420 and 5550. Three +WWs can give about 5307, 5357 and 5422 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5520 if nifty remains above 5300. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty closed strongly -ve, as suggested by Monday's NR7 day, and closed below 5300 after a long time, creating a small panic among traders and investors. However, +ve div has appeared again and a mild recovery is possible. Oil price and INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. Additional tension is the likely hood of a US attack on Syria. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5234 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5211NF, TARGET 5179, SL 5241.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5226NF, target 5258, SL 5196.

5.         Target met.

6.         SL hit and target of reverse trade also met without giving chance of an entry.

7.         Target of first +ww of the first post also met.

8.         Earlier in the day, target of bearish flag of the first post was met.

9.         Nifty opened gap down and quickly tanked to make a yearly low. But it suddenly took off after about an hour and rose almost 200 points from the day's low. It still made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve but slightly below yesterday's close. First the target of bearish flag of the first post was met. Then target of 9.30 strategy was met. However, later, SL of the strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met but without giving chance of an entry. Also met was target of first +WW of the first post. Daily candle is a hammer and an imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/08/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (27/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5405 and 5384 while resistances are at about 5522 and 5580. Five +WWs can give about 5495, 5559, 5602, 5631 and 5693 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5407, 5359 and 5328 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A rising wedge can give about 5350 unless nifty goes up again. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty closed -ve but managed to close above 100/200 wma again. However, daily candle is like an imperfect hanging man and though it is not at the top of an uptrend, nifty must close well above 5500 (preferably 5529) with a green candle for a further upmove. Also, Monday was a NR7 day and we may see a big move either way on Tuesday. INR continues to play spoilsport earlier and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. However, a low INR has also become attractive for FIIs and some fresh buying is expected unless it goes above 66. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5427 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY SELL ABOVE 5406NF, TARGET 5369, SL 5436.

4.         Target of first -ww met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         Targets of all -WWs of the first post met.

7.         Target of BD of rising wedge of the first post met.

8.         Nifty opened gap down and continued to slide, making lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also strongly below yesterday's close. Thus yesterday's NR7 day yielded its effect. Targets of all the three -WWs and that of BD of rising wedge of the first post were met. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (23/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5390, 5360, 5320 and 5298 while resistances are at about 5420, 5455 and 5585. The 100/200 wma are at about 5471/5440. Four +WWs can give about 5442, 5500, 5509 and 5584 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5398, 5381, 5340 and 5320 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty rose sharply and barely managed to close above 5400 again giving some hopes to the bulls. A +ve div persists on all TFs upto daily. However, unless Wednesday's high is crossed, higher levels are unlikely. But a close above 5420 on Friday will give a hammer on weekly, which is a likely reversal sign. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. However, such a low INR has also become attractive for FIIs and some fresh buying is expected unless it goes above 66. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Bulls will pray for a favourable outcome of Jackson Hole statement from US.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5428 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5427NF, TARGET 5379, SL 5457.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5412NF, target 5460, SL 5382.

5.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Target of reverse trade also met but without giving chance of an entry.

8.         Buy trigger level was missed by less than 1 point.

9.         Target of reverse trade met again.

10.       Target of first two -WWs and first +WW of the first post were met.

11.       Nifty opened up with a gap but quickly reacted to fill the gap and make a higher low. Then it shot up to make a higher high before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first two -WWs and first +WW of the first post were met. Also, target of 9.30 strategy was met but without giving chance of an entry. The SL was hit later and target of reverse trade was met twice, first without giving chance of an entry and later after missing buy trigger by less than 1 point. The daily candle is an imperfect hanging man while the weekly candle is a hammer.

The week's chart shows that further recovery is likely.

The intraday and weekly charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/08/13

LEADER POST for Monday (26/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5438 and 5340 while resistances are at about 5485, 5532 and 5600. Three +WWs can give about 5512, 5590 and 5625 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5419, 5397, 5388 and 5326 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A rising wedge can give about 5350 if nifty goes down and remains below 5445. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty rose again and finally closed above 100/200 wma giving some hopes to the bulls. A +ve div persists on all TFs upto daily. Also, weekly candle is a hammer and is a likely reversal sign. However, daily candle is like an imperfect hanging man and though it is not at the top of an uptrend, nifty must close well above 5472 with a green candle for a possible further upmove. INR has played spoilsport earlier and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. However, such a low INR has also become attractive for FIIs and some fresh buying is expected unless it goes above 66. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Recent moves by RBI are likely to help banknifty.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5499 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5476NF, TARGET 5523, SL 5446.

4.         Target of first +ww met.

5.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         SL hit. Now sell above 5490NF, target 5441, SL 5520.

7.         Target of reverse trade was just missed.

8.         Nifty opened gap up, made a higher high but then quickly reacted. It rose again in the afternoon only to fall again. However, it made a higher low than that on Friday before closing -ve but above Friday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met as also that of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry. Later, its SL was hit and target of reverse trade was just missed. The daily candle is an imperfect evening doji star. Monday was also a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/08/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (22/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5250 while resistances are at about 5330, 5420 and 5580. Previous unfilled gap is at about 5238. The 100/200 wma are at about 5469/5440. Five +WWs can give about 5313, 5335, 5374, 5400 and 5472 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty crashed again and barely managed to close above 5300. Much lower levels look imminent. Though a +ve div persists on lower TFs, the same on daily charts has vanished. However, today's candle, which is bearish engulfing, can also be considered to be an outside bar, if it is at the end of a downtrend. If so, it is a likely reversal sign, confirmed only if Wednesday's low is not broken and instead the high is broken. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Bulls will have to pray for favourable outcome of Wednesday night's FOMC minutes and weekend's Jackson Hole statement from US.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 5483 by afternoon.

3.         Immediate trend up, target 5299NF, SL 5225. Wait for 9.30 data.

4.         Again target met before 9.30. Now to see whether we get a chance of an entry later.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5229NF, TARGET 5299, SL 5199.

6.         Targets of first two +WWs of the first post met.

7.         Targets of third and fourth +WWs of the first post also met.

8.         Nifty opened gap down, rose sharply only to come down again before rising sharply to end at the day's high. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. Targets of four +WWs of the first post were met. Once again target of 9.30 strategy was met before 9.30 without giving chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/08/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (21/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5376, 5350, 5325 and 5285 while resistances are at about 5430, 5495 and 5585. Previous unfilled gap is at about 5238. The 100/200 wma are at about 5471/5440. Four +WWs can give about 5440 (once above 5380), 5455 (once above 5395), 5541 (once above 5475) and 5551 (once above 5487) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5350. An ascending triangle BO can give 5520 if nifty remains above 5420.

Nifty crashed again but did not break 5300 and then recovered smartly. It barely managed to close above 5400 again. Any lower close may take nifty down a lot. However, a +ve div persists on daily chart and on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Also, daily candle is like a hammer. Weekly resistance is at about 5650. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5494 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5500NF, TARGET 5450, SL 5530.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met due to gap up open.

6.         Gap filled.

7.         Target of BO of AT of the first post was almost met in the open itself.

8.         Nifty opened up with a big gap but reacted immediately. However, it later tanked in the afternoon due to sudden fall in INR. It thus made a higher high and lower low before closing strongly -ve and also strongly below yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met in the open. Also, target of BO of AT of the first post was almost met in the open itself. In addition, target of 9.30 strategy was met but before 9.30 itself and without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is huge, bearish engulfing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/08/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (20/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5410 and 5325 while resistance is at about 5585. Previous unfilled gap is at about 5238. The 100/200 wma are at about 5470/5440. Two +WWs can give about 5460 (once above 5407) and 5545 (once above 5489) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5350.

Nifty crashed again and barely managed to close above 5400. Any close below this may take nifty down a lot. However, a +ve div has appeared on daily chart and on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Weekly resistance is at about 5650. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5354 by afternoon.

3.         Freak low of 5200 and hence SL so high. Target already met.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5474NF, TARGET 5364, SL 5504.

5.         Nifty opened down with a big gap, made a lower low but then rose sharply. Target of 9.30 strategy was met before 9.30 itself. Finally it closed +ve but below yesterday's close.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/08/13

LEADER POST for Monday (19/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5485, 5455 and 5415 while resistances are at about 5590, 5670, 5695 and 5715. Previous lows are 5486 and 5477. The 100/200 wma are at about 5465/5439. Three +WWs can give about 5550 (once above 5509), 5595 (once above 5550) and 5617 (once above 5568) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5427 and 5389. A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5512.

Nifty crashed, confirming the evening star of Wednesday, and barely managed to close above 5000, a very crucial level. Any close below this may take nifty down a lot. However, a +ve div has appeared on daily chart and on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Weekly resistance is at about 5660. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it remains above 5500 by afternoon.

3.         Immediate trend down, target 5458NF, SL 5564. Wait for 9.30 data.

4.         Target already met.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5545NF, TARGET 5458, SL 5575.

6.         Target of first -ww of the first post met.

7.         Target of second -ww of the first post also met.

8.         Nifty opened down with a small gap but tanked immediately as INR fell. It closed strongly -ve and also strongly below Friday's close. The targets of both -WWs of the first post were met. The target of 9.30 strategy was met before 9.30 itself i.e. without giving chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (16/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5722, 5690, 5650 and 5621 while resistances are at about 5795, 5825 and 5840/5860. The 200dma is at about 5852. Five +WWs can give about 5765, 5796, 5821, 5895 and 5907 (once above 5760) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5716 (once below 5752), 5695 (once below 5738), 5689 (once below 5728) and 5657 (once below 5687). Two falling wedges/ channels BO can give about 5805/6045 while two rising channels/wedges can give about 5510/5580 if nifty goes and remains below 5730.

Nifty rose again but closed just below 5750 and we could see higher levels before next reaction sets in. Thursday was a NR4 day while it was a NR7 day for banknifty. However, daily candle is an evening star and nifty will have close higher on Friday with a green candle to nullify its bearish signal. A close below 5690 can cause further fall. INR can play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5706 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5716NF, TARGET 5673, SL 5746.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Targets of all -WWs of the first post met.

6.         Target of BD of one rising channel of the first post met.

7.         Target of BD of second rising wedge of the first post also met.

8.         Nifty opened down with a gap and just tanked, resulting in the biggest fall in two years, thanks to the confusion caused by govt. as regards apparent capital control. The targets of all the -WWs as well as those of the BD of rising channel/wedges of the first post were met. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a huge bearish Marubuzo while the weekly candle is an imperfect inverted hammer.

The week’s chart looks very bearish but the +ve div may result in some recovery next week.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/08/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (14/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5694, 5619 and 5590/5575 while resistances are at about 5720 and 5825/5840. The 200dam is at about 5852. Four +WWs can give about 5753, 5824, 5832 and 5866 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five -WWs can give about 5644 (once below 5680), 5641 (once below 5674), 5609 (once below 5667) and 5613/5564 (once below 5650). Two falling wedges/ channels BO can give about 5805/6045 while two rising channels/wedges can give about 5510/5580 in case of BD below 5546.

Nifty rose sharply but narrowly missed closing above 5700 and we could see higher levels before next reaction sets in. A close below 5500 can cause further fall. INR can play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.0 and VIX down at 19.26. Pre-open data suggests a flat to -ve nifty after small gap up open unless it remains above 5716 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5709NF, TARGET 5677, SL 5739.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5730NF, target 5763, SL 5700.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of first +ww of the first post met in the last 5 min.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and remained in a range of about 35 before making an upmove late in the day. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. Target of first +ww of the first post was met. But SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and, though target of reverse trade was not met, excellent buying opportunities were available that gave >50 point profit. Daily candle is an evening star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/08/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (13/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5590 and 5565/5554 while resistances are at about 5661/5677 and 5695. The 100/200 wma are at about 5466/5440 while 200dam is at 5851. Five +WWs can give about 5730/5798 (once above 5593), 5757/5823 (once above 5624) and 5810 (once above 5600) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5583 (once below 5622), 5580 (once below 5610), 5556 (once below 5596) and 5508 (once below 5578). Three falling wedges/ channels BO can give about 5695/5805/6045 if nifty goes and remains above 5512/5560. A rising channel can give about 5510 in case of BD below 5600.

Nifty closed above 5600 but is not out of the woods yet. Also, the daily candle is a Doji and can imply reversal or consolidation. Hence, we could see some volatility and large swings. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5685. A close below 5500 can cause further fall. INR continues to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5600 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5609NF, TARGET 5649, SL 5579.

4.         Targets of first two -WWs of the first post met.

5.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         Target of BO of first wedge of the first post met.

7.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap but that was the end of it. It rose sharply and kept rising making a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also strongly +ve above yesterday's close. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met also the target of BO of first falling wedge of the first post. However, target of 9.30 strategy trade was met without getting chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/08/13

LEADER POST for Monday (12/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5534, 5500, 5464 and 5415 while resistances are at about 5595, 5625 and 5740. A weekly TL is at about 5400 while the 100/200 wma are at about 5461/5438. A number of +WWs can give about 5709/5758 (once above 5631), 5700/5762 (once above 5607), 5726 (once above 5562) and 5731 (once above 5570) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5541 (once below 5581), 5518 (once below 5563) and 5454 (once below 5571). Three falling wedges/channels BO can give about 5695/5805/6045 if nifty goes and remains above 5512/5560. A rising wedge can give about 5515 in case of BD below 5562.

Nifty closed above 5550 but is still bearish. However, a +ve div persists on lower TFs and also +ve div has appeared on CCI and STS on daily and weekly charts. Also, daily candle is an imperfect bullish engulfing one and Thursday was a NR7 day for bank nifty and its daily candle was an inside bar. Hence, some recovery is likely. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5630. A close below 5500 can cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         PCR flat at 0.95 and VIX down at 21.19. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5606 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5604NF, TARGET 5640, SL 5574.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5594NF, target 5557, SL 5624.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Target of original trade met but without getting chance of an entry.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap, reacted a bit before rising sharply. It did react somewhat late in the day. However, it still made a higher high and low than those on Thursday before closing mildly +ve but well above Thursday's close. The SLs of either side trade of 9.30 strategy were hit and target of original trade was met but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/08/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (08/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5500 and 5415 while resistances are at about 5595, 5641 and 5740. A weekly TL is at about 5400 while the 100/200 wma are at about 5459/5437. Five +WWs can give about 5714/5723/5790 (once above 5588), 5722 (once above 5504) and 5739 (once above 5638) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW give about 5454. Three falling wedges/channels BO can give about 5695/5805/6045 if nifty goes and remains above 5550.

Nifty closed below 5550 once again and also at a new low and is scarily bearish, particularly noting that VIX made a new 52 week high. However, a +ve div persists on lower TFs and mild recovery is likely. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5630. Daily close below 5500 can cause further fall. Only a hidden divergence in daily and weekly charts can result in a recovery. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it remains below 5510 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5533NF, TARGET 5510, SL 5563.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5570NF, target 5594, SL 5540.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap and after a minor hiccup, kept rising, thereby making a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. Though daily candle of nifty spot is non-descriptive, that of nifty fut is an inside bar.

The week’s chart shows that a possible recovery has started.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/08/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (07/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5500 and 5415 while resistances are at about 5578, 5595, 5641 and 5785. The weekly TL is at about 5407 while the 100/200 wma are at about 5461/5438. Four +WWs can give about 5609 (once above 5569) and 5704/5711/ 5765 (once above 5608) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three falling wedges/channels BO can give about 5695/5805/6045 if nifty goes and remains above 5640.

Nifty closed below 5550 for the first time since 12/04 and is scarily bearish, particularly noting that VIX made a 52 week high. However, a +ve div persists on lower TFs and mild recovery is likely. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5630. A weekly close below 5625 can cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to -ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains above 5550 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5579NF, TARGET 5536, SL 5609.

4.         Target met without giving chance of an entry.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy missed by about 8 points.

6.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap and quickly reacted to make a lower low. Then it rose sharply in the afternoon but that was short lived. Finally it closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met without giving chance of an entry. Entry was available late in the day but target was missed by about 8 points.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/08/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (06/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5659, 5627 and 5575 while resistances are at about 5748, 5812 and 5840. A number of +WWs can give about 5725/5793 (once above 5673), 5730/5777/5875 (once above 5625), 5815 (once above 5650) and 5818 (once above 5656) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5532 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling wedges/channel BO can give about 5805/6045 if nifty remains above 5680.

Nifty closed below 5700 again and is still clearly bearish. However, a +ve div is still seen on lower TFs. Also, daily candle is a "low price" Harami cross and a reversal is likely. Also, Monday was a NR7 day and hence Tuesday may see a big move either way. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5870. If support levels given above are breached or if RSI on daily chart goes below 37, much lower levels are likely. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a volatile but +ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains below 5664 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5685NF, TARGET 5645, SL 5715.

4.         Target met without giving chance of an entry.

5.         Target of -ww of the first post was met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a gap and kept sliding. The fall accelerated in the afternoon. Nifty thus made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also strongly below yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met but without giving chance of an entry. The target of -ww of the first post was also met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/08/13

LEADER POST for Monday (05/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5643, 5607 and 5559 while resistances are at about 5711, 5728, 5749, 5808 and 5837. Previous low is at 5566. A number of +WWs can give about 5703, 5759 (once above 5692), 5755/5779/5817 (once above 5674), 5809 (once above 5645) and 5812 (once above 5655) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5532 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling wedges/channel BO can give about 5805/6045 if nifty goes and remains above 5685/5700.

Nifty fell again and closed below 5700 for the first time since 27/06 and is clearly bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5870. If support levels given above are breached or if RSI on daily chart goes below 37, much lower levels are likely. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         PCR down at 0.99 and VIX up at 20.89. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to +ve nifty after a flattish open unless it remains below 5682 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5715NF, TARGET 5677, SL 5745.

4.         If SL is hit, by below 5724NF, target 5763, SL 5694.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of first +ww of the first post met.

7.         Target of reverse trade considered met but without giving chance of an entry.

8.         Nifty opened flattish but remained in a range of about 60. It made a lower high and a higher low than those on Friday before closing slightly +ve and also slightly above Friday's close. Target of first +ww of the first post was met. But the SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was considered met as it was missed by a fraction. However, chance of an entry was not possible. Daily candle is a "low price" harami cross and it was a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-02/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (02/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5676, 5650 and 5610 while resistances are at about 5754, 5781, 5807 and 5950. Four +WWs can give about 5812 (once above 5665), 5879 (once above 5719), 5906 (once above 5664) and 5924 (once above 5846) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5555 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge/channel break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5740.

Nifty fell sharply in spite of a gap up open and closed below 5750 again and is clearly bearish. Monthly chart is bearish showing -ve div. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Higher levels are possible only if nifty gives a weekly close above 5805. A close below 5715 can result in much lower levels as weekly support lies at 5600. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5750 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5778NF, TARGET 5735, SL 5808.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but started sliding. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. Target of 9.30 strategy was met without giving chance of an entry.

The week’s chart shows likelihood of much lower levels possible if 5600 is breached strongly.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.