Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/03/13

LEADER POST for Monday (25/03/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5615 and 5595 while 200 sma is at about 5618. Resistances are at about 5690 and 5737. Five likely +WWs give about 5692, 5751, and 5762 (once above 5659) and 5794/5825 (once above 5620, which is not reached yet) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag gives much lower level unless killed above 5710. A falling wedge and three falling channels can give about 5770/5853/5945/5971 in case of a BO above 5710.

Nifty fell sharply but recovered to close just above 5650 again, threatening to go down more. But, there is a +ve div on all indicators as well as a hidden div on daily chart and the daily candle is Doji, all of which are bullish signs. However, nifty may go down to just below 5600 to create panic and create a bear trap. As long as nifty doesn't close below 5615, I feel nifty will go up in short term. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility will continue to be high.

2.         PCR down at 0.82 and VIX down at 15.54. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5712NF, TARGET 5743, SL 5682.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5689NF, target 5657, SL 5719.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Target of reverse trade met without giving a chance to enter.

8.         Target of bearish flag of the first post met.

9.         Today's gap filled.

10.       Nifty opened gap up, remained flat for over 4 hours before falling sharply. It made a higher high and lower low than those on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's close. The targets of first +ww and the bearish flag of the first post were met. But the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and the target of reverse trade was met without giving chance of an entry. During the fall, nifty also filled the gap created in the morning. Though not of nifty spot, the daily candle of nifty fut may have formed a Last Engulfing Bottom.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.