Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/03/13

LEADER POST for Monday (18/03/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5864 and 5824 while resistances are at about 5888, 5911, 5938 and 5976. Four likely +WWs give about 5894 (once above 5840, which is yet to be reached), 5913 (once above 5853, which is yet to be reached), 5925 once above 5869) and 5990 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Six likely -WWs give about 5848 (once below 5945), 5835 (once below 5918), 5828 (once below 5979, which is yet to be reached), 5780 (once below 5857), 5766 (once below 5977, which is yet to be reached) and 5753 (once below 5927) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently).

A falling channel BO can give about 5971 if nifty remains above 5795. A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 5846. A bearish flag gives lower level unless killed above 5911. A falling broadening wedge seems to have broken out and can give 5971/6070 but if nifty remains below 5856, its BD can give 5729.

Nifty fell sharply to close below 5900 again confirming reversal indicated by Tasuki Downside Gap candle of Thursday. But the daily candle can be considered to be a Dark Cloud Cover, a bearish sign again unless nifty closes above 5946 on Monday. Fortunately weekly candle is not a hanging man. Also, nifty closed above 20sma on weekly basis and hence the bullish sentiment continues on weekly basis unless next week closes below 5946. 5998 on higher side is crucial level.

           Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Considering that next week's RBI policy review is the most important of the year, volatility will be very high with wild swings. I feel that both 5753/5729 on lower side and 5990/6030 on higher side are possible by expiry.

 

Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Considering that next week's RBI policy review is the most important of the year, volatility will be very high with wild swings. I feel that both 5753/5729 on lower side and 5990/6030 on higher side are po2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains below 5820.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5854NF, TARGET 5889, SL 5824.

4.         Targets of first three -WWs met.

5.         Nifty opened down with a gap, remained flat till afternoon and then rose a bit but made a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing +ve but below Friday's close. The targets of first three -WWs and the bearish flag of the first post were met but that of 9.30 strategy trade was not met as the total range was about 35 points. The daily candle is like an inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.