Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/03/13

LEADER POST for Friday (01/03/13)

1.         There are no supports nearby but 200 sma is at about 5540 and the previous low was 5548 in Nov '12 from where this rally started. 5540 also happens to be in a zone which has been important since 2010. Resistances are at about 5710, 5724, 5780, 5815 and 5827. The nearest gap yet to be filled is 5648. Three likely +WWs give about 5768 (once above 5720), 5831 (once above 5752) and 5848 (once above 5713) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag can give about 5626 unless killed above about 5730. A HnS has broken down and can give about 5550 unless nifty goes up from here and remains above 5970.

Nifty crashed and closed below 5700 continuing the bearish trend that started from last week. However, there is a mild +ve div on STS and CCI on daily chart and the daily candle can be a Last Engulfing Bottom, which can be a reversal sign. First sign of reversal will be a gap up open on Friday and a close above 5700, preferably with a green candle and then a close above 5835. Also, if there is no more fall on Friday, weekly candle will have taken support from 34 ema. Two unfilled gaps on higher side are at 5855 and 5943. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty.

2.         Pre-open candle is a doji and indicates an uncertain nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5734NF, TARGET 5762, SL 5704.

4.         SL hit.

5.         Now sell above 5706NF, target 5676 and SL 5736.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit. Back to long.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap (though nifty fut opened down with s small gap) and made a higher low (though nifty fut made a lower low) and lower high than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close (though nifty fut closed flat w.r.t. to yesterday's close). The SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side but none of the targets were met. The daily candle is again a harami.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.