Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/07/12

LEADER POST for Friday (27/07/12)

1.         On the first day of new settlement, supports are at 5028/27, 5020/17, 4990 and 4940 while resistances are at 5044, 5056/58, 5090/91, 5110 and 5180. Two likely +WWs give about 5093 and 5101. Thursday's big fall indicates further downside but I feel that nifty may not go down by more than 100 points from present levels. Also, nifty has been falling for five straight days and, therefore, some upmove is likely on Friday. Hence, positional shortsellers should be careful with their SLs.

2.         5153 and 5190NS are crucial on upside, ………….

3.         On Thursday (26/07), nifty retraced more 50% of its rise from 4770 and a sharp recovery was expected but it is not clear how much that rise would be. A day close above 5150 will give first hopes. Nifty first rose by 1100 points from Jan, then fell 860 points, then rose 580 points and then fell again 316 points. The margin by which it rose and fell is reducing and hence there could be a big move in future but which way can not be predicted now, until subsequent higher or lower levels are progressively taken out.

4.         PCR at 1.1 and VIX at 16.37. Pre-open high/low at 5218.30/5043 and close at 5124.30. This is an inverted hammer on 10tf similar to Thursday's pre-open and market has gone up only twice in last month with such a pre-open.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5129NF, TARGET 5106, SL 5159. NOTE THAT SENTIMENT IS BULLISH TODAY SO TRADE WITH SL AS IT MAY BE TRIGGERED LATER. ALSO, CHART DATA IS DIFFERENT FROM ODIN DATA AND GIVES A SL OF 5153.

6.         (SL of 9.30 strategy hit) Now buy below 5155NF target 5183/86 SL 5125.

7.         It's so funny that target of down trend (first 9.30 strategy sell call) met after SL was hit.

8.         Nifty opened up with a large gap as was expected but, as predicted after pre-open, reacted to close -ve though well above Thursday's close. The gap was so much that resistances mentioned in the first post became support levels. Both the targets of +ww mentioned in the first post were met at open itself. Volatility was very high and SL of 9.30 strategy (sell) was triggered first but target of reverse trade (buy) was missed by about 3 points. Then SL for this reverse buy trade was also triggered and finally target of first "sell" trade was met. The fact that nifty spot did not cross 5150 and closed below 5100 does not auger well. The first few days of next week may show likely pattern in short term.

Unfortunately, I am unable to attach the intraday chart of nifty spot.