Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/07/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (18/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5188, 5179/76, 5170 and 5164/59 while the previous gap was at about 5149 (29th June). Resistances are at 5200/04, 5220 and 5246. Two +WWs give about 5269 (once above 5200) and 5277, the latter being active. Nifty is in a falling wedge with 5170 and 5204 as limits. Today's QE3 report from US will decide whether nifty will open gap up or gap down. If latter, it may fill up gap at 5149. Anyway, I feel that nifty as at the end of its downtrend unless it breaks below 5100.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 17.78. Pre-open high/low at 5204.15/4943.05 and close at 5199.10. It made almost a double bottom with pre-open low of 11th July. The pre-open may indicate a slight upmove, at least in the morning.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy, selll above 5193NF target 5169/50 SL 5223.

4.         Something is amiss. CE holding even though NF made a new low.

5.         If (a likely) flag succeeds, 5221NS/5237nf possible but right now I am worried about distribution albeit with lesser volume. Flag fails below 5195NF.

6.         Flag target met.

7.         I am expecting (may be wishing) a upward blast next week and may be diesel price hike will come after 19th.

8.         Nifty opened about 10 points up, made a lower high and lower low than yesterday but closed above previous close and today's open, as guessed based on pre-open values. 9.30 strategy showed downtrend but failed to meet target by about 8 and then its SL was triggered in the afternoon. A bullish flag identified in the afternoon gave its target. The important aspect of today was that nifty bounced exactly from lower TL of falling wedge mentioned in the first post and then gave a break out (BO) above upper TL. It is now hoped that this was not a false BO.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.