Friday, July 20, 2012

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/07/12

LEADER POST for Friday (20/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5238, 5230/29, 5213/5210 and 5184. Resistances are at 5243, 5247/49, 5256 and 5267. Two +WWs give about 5279 and 5303, both being active. Although nifty opened up with a gap and closed above previous close, its narrow band today and the fact that it closed negative w.r.t. open indicates that further consolidation is possible, which means that nifty may make a lower high and lower low Friday even if it remains in a narrow range and closes +ve. Note that today's candle is a doji like that on 27th June.

2.         Today's candle mentioned above is a doji star, not just doji. Hence, Friday's candle will show trend for next week.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5223NF TARGET 5202/5188 SL 5253.

4.         A likely inverted flag should give our target unless killed above 5232NF.

5.         Nifty is in a Descending Triangle today and I hoping for a break out next week, preferably with a gap up open on Monday.

6.         As stated in the first post, nifty opened gap down, made lower high and lower low than yesterday and closed -ve. It also underwent consolidation, as was expected, and also hints at a probable accumulation, which, however, can only be confirmed by a break out next week. The 9.30 strategy, which indicated a downtrend, failed to give its target by just 4 points. Today's candle neither negated bearishness indicated by yesterday's doji star nor the last three candles can be considered to have formed an evening star. This is because last three candles are actually at the bottom of a downtrend and also today’s volume is lesser than that on Wednesday. Hence, Monday’s and next week's trend is not necessarily bearish. A Descending Triangle formed today also gives hope of a breakout since it has formed at the end of a downtrend and nifty is at an important support level. Nifty did attempt a breakout near close. My gut feeling is that we will see a big move on the upside next week.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.



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