Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/07/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (12/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5304, 5294, 5286/85, 5278/72 and 5200 while resistances are at 5314/15, 5356, 5362 and 5407. A number of -WWs posted in the past give about 5280/ 5260/ 5250/ 5225 once below 5310/ 5305 while two +WWs give 5360/ 5390 once above 5322. I feel that market will be flat to +ve on Thursday but volatility is guaranteed since it is a day of results of Infy & TCE as well as IIP data.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5357.95/5200.25 and close at 5240. Such as pre-open has not happened for at least a month though range is not so big as before e.g. yesterday. Nifty will surely open -ve but further trend is uncertain. May be it will recover.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy, buy below 5289NF target 5309 SL 5259. However, it is better not to trade today, particularly when there is gap down opening and market mood is spoiled by infy. Also, it is a day of IIP data and hence volatility will be high unless IIP is also bad. So, SL may be triggered. If one wants to take risk then buy below 5279 so that SL is only20 points away, which is NOW.

4.         SL hit, now sell above 5260NF target 5230/20 SL 5290.

‎5.         9.30 strategy target almost met. Buy now with about 5200NS/5210NF as SL. Those who bought made >30 point gain.

6.         Thanks to first infy results before market opened and then IIP data later, today was a bad day, proving that yesterday's decision to carry longs was wrong. Nifty opened down with a gap (as was indicated by pre-open), broke through all supports, except the last one of 5200 mentioned in the first post. However, it was volatile as expected. The SL of 9.30 strategy (going long) was triggered but the reverse short trade gave its target. In the process, nifty yielded targets of all the four -WWs mentioned over last few days. Another reverse trade, this time long, taken after the short target was met, gave >30 points gain too. So, for an agile and flexible trader, it was a good trade, in spite of a -ve and volatile market. Nifty closed 71 points down but appears to be headed south unless it reverses to cross 5246 NS and then 5262 and remains above them.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.