Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/07/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (31/07/12)

1.         The supports are at 5194/93, 5184, 5176, 5151 and 5139 while resistances are at 5202/04, 5209/10 and 5219. A likely bullish flag gets nullified below 5184. The target will be known sometime after Tuesday's movement of nifty. Three likely -WWs give about 5172 (once below 5189) and 5048 & 5044 (once below 5180 & 5155). A rising wedge seems to have formed, which, if true and breaks down, gives appx. 5077.

As mentioned in the last post for Monday (30/07), the day candle shows a bullish tendency. However, Tuesday is the day of RBI policy review. Good or bad news from RBI may see break out above crucial level of 5250 or break down below 5150, which would be bearish. Note that there is a gap created on 12/07 (5306), which could be filled up in case of a break out. Always avoid trading on an important event day as RBI policy review or at least trade with caution and SLs.

2.         As it appears now, SLs for positional shorts and longs seem to be 5260 and 5150NS.

3.         PCR at 1.05 VIX at 16.60.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5234NF, TARGET 5203/5184 SL 5264.

5.         An inverted flag can give 5162NS.

6.         First target achieved.

7.         (Post by LLK) -ww target of 5172 achieved.

8.         Inverted flag target also achieved.

9.         Nifty opened up with a gap again taking cue from Monday's bullish candle and sentiment. It closed +ve and also above Monday's close. But as indicated by the pre-open candle, it was volatile, thanks to RBI policy review. It fell about 60 points after opening and then recovered smartly by about 78 points.

The first -ww target was met during the fall. Both the targets of 9.30 strategy were met but without giving an opportunity to enter into a trade at specified level, which came only after target was met. A bearish flag identified later also gave its target. Nifty closed with indicators at ovebought levels and in -ve div.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/07/12

LEADER POST for Friday (27/07/12)

1.         On the first day of new settlement, supports are at 5028/27, 5020/17, 4990 and 4940 while resistances are at 5044, 5056/58, 5090/91, 5110 and 5180. Two likely +WWs give about 5093 and 5101. Thursday's big fall indicates further downside but I feel that nifty may not go down by more than 100 points from present levels. Also, nifty has been falling for five straight days and, therefore, some upmove is likely on Friday. Hence, positional shortsellers should be careful with their SLs.

2.         5153 and 5190NS are crucial on upside, ………….

3.         On Thursday (26/07), nifty retraced more 50% of its rise from 4770 and a sharp recovery was expected but it is not clear how much that rise would be. A day close above 5150 will give first hopes. Nifty first rose by 1100 points from Jan, then fell 860 points, then rose 580 points and then fell again 316 points. The margin by which it rose and fell is reducing and hence there could be a big move in future but which way can not be predicted now, until subsequent higher or lower levels are progressively taken out.

4.         PCR at 1.1 and VIX at 16.37. Pre-open high/low at 5218.30/5043 and close at 5124.30. This is an inverted hammer on 10tf similar to Thursday's pre-open and market has gone up only twice in last month with such a pre-open.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5129NF, TARGET 5106, SL 5159. NOTE THAT SENTIMENT IS BULLISH TODAY SO TRADE WITH SL AS IT MAY BE TRIGGERED LATER. ALSO, CHART DATA IS DIFFERENT FROM ODIN DATA AND GIVES A SL OF 5153.

6.         (SL of 9.30 strategy hit) Now buy below 5155NF target 5183/86 SL 5125.

7.         It's so funny that target of down trend (first 9.30 strategy sell call) met after SL was hit.

8.         Nifty opened up with a large gap as was expected but, as predicted after pre-open, reacted to close -ve though well above Thursday's close. The gap was so much that resistances mentioned in the first post became support levels. Both the targets of +ww mentioned in the first post were met at open itself. Volatility was very high and SL of 9.30 strategy (sell) was triggered first but target of reverse trade (buy) was missed by about 3 points. Then SL for this reverse buy trade was also triggered and finally target of first "sell" trade was met. The fact that nifty spot did not cross 5150 and closed below 5100 does not auger well. The first few days of next week may show likely pattern in short term.

Unfortunately, I am unable to attach the intraday chart of nifty spot.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/07/12

LEADER POST for Monday (30/07/12)

1.         The supports are at 5096, 5086, 5071, 5027, 5001/5000 and 4964 while resistances are at 5106/08, 5134, 5141, 5167 and 5187. Two likely +WWs give about 5119 and 5154. The way nifty has behaved on Thursday (a big fall) and Friday (a big gap up and then sizeable fall) and the fact that it may open up with a big gap again on Monday, I wonder whether a bear trap is being created. This is because of a couple of possibilities mentioned below. Nifty seems to be in two channels since 11/7 and thereafter with lower and upper TLs limits at 5062-5167 and 5026-5134. Also, A falling wedge seems to have formed since 19/7, which, if true and breaks out, gives appx. 5250. To me, 5167 seems to be a crucial level now although 5187 is a good (age old) resistance. We can not forget that 29th June took out major resistance zone of 5170-5210 with a big gap up opening. Since nifty is critically poised, one needs to be careful with trading on either side.

2.         PCR at 1.02 and VIX at 16.44. Pre-open high/low at 5239.30/5070.95 and close at 5129.75. In the past market has been flat to -ve on such days except for one day when it went up.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5173NF, TARGET 5195/5210 SL 5143. Buy is already triggered.

4.         Both +ww targets met. A (new) +ww gives 5158 again.

5.         The +ww target mentioned above was met earlier but the target has now gone up to 5177NS.

6.         The first 9.30 strategy target met and new +ww target also.

7.         A flag gives 5204NS unless killed below 5164.

8.         Second 9.30 strategy target met.

9.         As I had stated in the first post, nifty opened up with a gap and continued to go up, closing +ve and also 100 points above Friday's close, contrary to what was felt after the pre-open. It also broke out of both the channels as well as the wedge mentioned in the first post.

It made a high of 5205.70 i.e. near the top of the strong resistance zone. In the process, both the targets of the two +WWs as well as 9.30 strategy were met. Another +ww identified later in the day also gave its target. Even the target of a flag identified later was met.

Today's candle is similar to the one on 6th June. Also, the gap created on 23/7 was filled today. What's more the upper TL from 10/7 was also breached convincingly. In general, a satisfactory day from trading point of view, being trending.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/07/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (26/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5108/04, 5074, 5060/58/54 and 5047/45 while resistances are at 5112, 5134 and 5193. Two likely +WWs give about 5129 and 5192 (the latter looks unlikely on Thursday) while a -ww gives 5100. Nifty seems to be in a falling wedge and is presently near the upper TL. Thursday being the expiry day, I feel market will be volatile and may show as much as plus/minus 50 point move from today's close. The first day of this expiry closed +ve and hence I feel nifty may close in this expiry above 5149NS, the close of previous expiry. A safe trade would be to buy/sell 5100 CE/PE when nifty is about 5100 provided it happens before 2.40/3 pm. If it remains flat, the loss will be total but small since cost will also small. However, selling options should only be done by experienced traders. Alternately, if nifty revisits Wednesday's low, one can try buying 5100CE or if it goes to 5150/60 in the morning, one can try buying 5100PE. Being an expiry day, trade carefully.

2.         Wednesday's candle is a hammer and meets all but one important criteria for a bullish reversal as of now i.e. (a) it is at the bottom of a downtrend, (b) lower shadow is > twice the real body and (c) it is accompanied by a large volume. The only remaining criterion is to see now whether Thursday opens with a gap.

3.         In the event nifty is going to go down after expiry, Thursday's candle will have to be an inverted hammer. Let's see how it pans out.

4.         PCR at 0.98 and VIX at 16.75. Pre-open high/low at 5192.70/5109.60 and close at 5126.30. It's an inverted hammer but the last two times such a pre-open happened in the last month, market went up. As explained above, a gap up opening will auger well for market today.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5115NF, TARGET 5086 (AND MAY BE 5065), SL 5145.

6.         Unless NS closes above 5115, it may go down.

7.         Also, today's nifty is in a falling wedge so back to 5126 is possible.

8.         The wedge has broken out as of now. Let's see whether this is a false one.

9.         (In response to a query by LKL), calls are as per strategy while my statement about falling wedge is after looking at chart. They are not related. That's why the need for SL e.g. 5124 for second strategy and 5145 for 9.30 one. So both morning calls remain till SL is triggered. In fact even if 5124NF is triggered for second strategy, 9.30 strategy remains a sell.

10.       By the way, I missed to note that -ww target of 5100 is already met. (Post by Subhash - …. 9.30 strategy target 5086 NF met.

11.       An inverted flag gives 5052.

12.       Nifty opened up with a gap past the first resistance, as stated in the first post. But after remaining flat, crashed in the afternoon. It thus did not close +ve as I had felt it would. Those who took the safe trade of buying 5100ce/pe as advised, made huge money. The targets of -ww and the 9.30 strategy were also met. The falling wedge formed by nifty gave a (false) break out but failed to sustain. The massive fall in the last one hour was completely unexpected, nifty spot making a low of 5033. This makes future of market uncertain as there are no strong supports nearby. Today's candle is thus a big, bearish Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/07/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (25/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5104, 5100 and 5086/84 while about 5095 was previous low on 26/6/12. Resistances are at 5134/35, 5140, 5146, 5156 and 5208. Three likely +WWs give about 5145 (once above 5129), 5159, and 5177 while a -ww gives 5073. Hence, tight SL is name of the game, particularly because expiry is 2 days away. It was a slightly good sign that nifty closed above 5120 but if it closes below 5080 then we may see a further slide. I feel market may be flat on Wednesday.

2.         Tuesday's NS candle has formed a Harami Cross showing strong possibility of a reversal. However, alas, NF doesn't show such a harami. May be this is because expiry is round the corner. The only consolation is that rsi shows mild +ve div on daily chart.

3.         Nifty may open a bit weak. It may also go down to 5090/80 but I intend to buy as I feel it may surprise us by a big upmove today.

4.         Pre-open high/low at 5192.20/4895.70 and close at 5118.40. This is the lowest low and highest range in pre-open in a long time. Also, pre-open's 10tf candle is a long legged doji. So I feel that nifty may go up today even though it opens -ve and goes down further initially, as stated earlier.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5109NF, TARGET 5086 SL 5139.

‎6.         9.30 strategy target met.

7.         A new +ww gives about 5112NS. +ww target met. (post by LLK - Anyway " -ww gives 5073" was fulfilled).

8.         Nifty opened slightly up but closed -ve after making a lower high and low than yesterday. A big upmove did not come as I had felt although it did rise sharply by about 48 points from the low. It did go down first and then rose as was stated... after pre-open but finally it only flattered to deceive. The target of 9.30 strategy was met. The target of a -ww stated in the first post was also met. A buy call given near the lows yielded a whopping 40 point gain.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/07/12

Unfortunately, I missed post for Monday (23/07/12) and my apologies for that.
LEADER POST for Tuesday (24/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5106/05/03 and 5099/98 while about 5095 was previous low on 26/6/12. Resistances are at 5122, 5167, 5183 and 5223. Three likely +WWs give about 5135, 5153 (once above 5121), and 5161 (once above 5135). I feel today's trend would be a flat to +ve.

2.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX up at 18.66. Pre-open high/low at 5152.80/5089.70 and close at 5128.80. The last time we had such a pre-open, nifty was flat to -ve. However, I feel there is a chance of a +ve move today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5113NF, TARGET 5150/5172, SL 5083 (TIGHT BUT DICEY SL 5110).

4.         First +ww target was met in opening only.

5.         As stated in the first post and later after pre-open, nifty closed +ve and also above yesterday's close even though it made a lower high and low than yesterday. The first +ww target was met as also the target of 9.30 strategy. It was, otherwise, a lacklustre day with a 45 point range, possibly due to expiry being 2 days away. Market is waiting for a stimulus by way some +ve news from Govt, which is overdue.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/07/12

LEADER POST for Friday (20/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5238, 5230/29, 5213/5210 and 5184. Resistances are at 5243, 5247/49, 5256 and 5267. Two +WWs give about 5279 and 5303, both being active. Although nifty opened up with a gap and closed above previous close, its narrow band today and the fact that it closed negative w.r.t. open indicates that further consolidation is possible, which means that nifty may make a lower high and lower low Friday even if it remains in a narrow range and closes +ve. Note that today's candle is a doji like that on 27th June.

2.         Today's candle mentioned above is a doji star, not just doji. Hence, Friday's candle will show trend for next week.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5223NF TARGET 5202/5188 SL 5253.

4.         A likely inverted flag should give our target unless killed above 5232NF.

5.         Nifty is in a Descending Triangle today and I hoping for a break out next week, preferably with a gap up open on Monday.

6.         As stated in the first post, nifty opened gap down, made lower high and lower low than yesterday and closed -ve. It also underwent consolidation, as was expected, and also hints at a probable accumulation, which, however, can only be confirmed by a break out next week. The 9.30 strategy, which indicated a downtrend, failed to give its target by just 4 points. Today's candle neither negated bearishness indicated by yesterday's doji star nor the last three candles can be considered to have formed an evening star. This is because last three candles are actually at the bottom of a downtrend and also today’s volume is lesser than that on Wednesday. Hence, Monday’s and next week's trend is not necessarily bearish. A Descending Triangle formed today also gives hope of a breakout since it has formed at the end of a downtrend and nifty is at an important support level. Nifty did attempt a breakout near close. My gut feeling is that we will see a big move on the upside next week.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/07/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (19/07/12)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at 5214, 5200, 5177/75/72, 5157/56/53, 5148 and 5136 while the previous gap was at about 5149 (29th June). Resistances are at 5219/20, 5233 and 5241. Two +WWs give about 5272 and 5292, both being active. These are same +WWs posted earlier but targets have increased. As mentioned elsewhere, nifty bounced off lower TL of falling wedge and then gave a BO. Nifty has formed a bullish hammer on daily chart and indicates reversal. It now appears that the downtrend may have ended unless next two days see successive lower lows and, more importantly, -ve closes.

2.         PCR at 1.09 and VIX at 17.44. Pre-open high/low at 5252.35/5160.90 and close at 5249.85. While this indicates an uptrend, since nifty will open up with a good gap, long holders need to keep a TSL, particularly because 10tf pre-open candle is a hammer.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY SELL ABOVE 5240NF TARGET 5221 AND SL 5270. HOWEVER, FIRST 5TF CANDLE IS A DOJI AND SHOWS HIGHER LOW THAN ODIN DATA AND IMPLIES UPTREND. HENCE, BE CAREFUL.

4.         As stated in the first post, nifty continued its bullish trend started from yesterday afternoon and opened up with a gap. However, in spite of making a higher high and higher low than yesterday, it remained flat in a narrow range of about 23 points and actually closed negative, although above previous close. Neither the target of 9.30 strategy was met nor was its SL hit, due to its narrow range.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/07/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (18/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5188, 5179/76, 5170 and 5164/59 while the previous gap was at about 5149 (29th June). Resistances are at 5200/04, 5220 and 5246. Two +WWs give about 5269 (once above 5200) and 5277, the latter being active. Nifty is in a falling wedge with 5170 and 5204 as limits. Today's QE3 report from US will decide whether nifty will open gap up or gap down. If latter, it may fill up gap at 5149. Anyway, I feel that nifty as at the end of its downtrend unless it breaks below 5100.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 17.78. Pre-open high/low at 5204.15/4943.05 and close at 5199.10. It made almost a double bottom with pre-open low of 11th July. The pre-open may indicate a slight upmove, at least in the morning.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy, selll above 5193NF target 5169/50 SL 5223.

4.         Something is amiss. CE holding even though NF made a new low.

5.         If (a likely) flag succeeds, 5221NS/5237nf possible but right now I am worried about distribution albeit with lesser volume. Flag fails below 5195NF.

6.         Flag target met.

7.         I am expecting (may be wishing) a upward blast next week and may be diesel price hike will come after 19th.

8.         Nifty opened about 10 points up, made a lower high and lower low than yesterday but closed above previous close and today's open, as guessed based on pre-open values. 9.30 strategy showed downtrend but failed to meet target by about 8 and then its SL was triggered in the afternoon. A bullish flag identified in the afternoon gave its target. The important aspect of today was that nifty bounced exactly from lower TL of falling wedge mentioned in the first post and then gave a break out (BO) above upper TL. It is now hoped that this was not a false BO.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/07/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (17/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5195, 5189/87 and 5139/32 while the previous gap was at about 5149 (29th June). Resistances are at 5227, 5237 and 5270. Two +WW gives about 5257 (once above 5203) and 5272, which is active. The nifty is now poised for a breakdown unless it recovers dramatically. But it may at least go down to fill up the gap on 29th June.

2.         Pre-open high/low 5234.90/5195.30 at and close at 5228.05. Too small range to conclude what the day would bring. But today's range may be 50-80 points.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy sell above 5227NF target 5206 SL 5257 but be careful as today's may be a volatile day and the fact that cmp is above sell level.

4.         Looks like nifty is going down to fill today's gap.

5.         First target met. Today’s gap filled up.

6.         Second target met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a gap but the downtrend was clear soon. Both the targets of 9.30 strategy were met. Nifty made a lower high and low than yesterday, filled up today's gap and finally closed slightly negative. The range was about 60 points i.e. within the range indicated after pre-open. Indicators were slightly oversold at close. Clues from US will decide whether we see a gap up or gap down opening tmrw.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/07/12

LEADER POST for Monday (16/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5217, 5211, 5206/05, 5197, 5171 and 5155 while the previous gap was at about 5149. Resistances are at 5239/42/46, 5252, 5274, 5292 and 5325. A +WW gives about 5271 once above 5242. As mentioned yesterday on another thread, lower TL from 18th june has supported nifty so far. Hence, about 5217 (low of last 2 days) is crucial now. If it is not broken in next 2 days then it means nifty may have made a double bottom on 13/07/12 and is headed up. Also, 50% retracement of fall from Feb is at about 5200.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5333.50/5172.55 and close at 5232.35. This probably shows a flat to +ve market.

3.         Very misleading opening at 5175NF unlike NS at about 5232. Be careful and wait. ‎9.30 strategy is confusing since H-O is 78. But if I take NS values, one can buy now with target 5271NS and SL 5217NS.

4.         While NS opened mildly +ve, NF showed a freak open of 5175 and that proved to be a bad omen as nifty finally ended down after making a lower high than Friday. The mildly +ve trend indicated by pre-open also reversed after a while. It could not break second resistance and then broke through four support levels. Any further fall will sound alarm bells. 9.30 strategy had to be tried with NS for a change but its SL was triggered. A disappointing day indeed. The only hope is that indicators were at oversold levels when nifty closed.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/07/12

LEADER POST for Friday (13/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5231/28/25, 5211, 5204/02, 5164 and 5152/48 while resistances are at 5244, 5259/63/67 and 5307. A -WW gives about 5220. I feel that market will be flat to -ve considering today's weak trend and being a weekend. But tcs good results and "friday the 13th" may spring a surprise. Volatility is likely since nifty is in a crucial zone.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5320.75/5155.30 and close at 5242.75. The 10tf candle is a doji and day's trend is uncertain. However, since market fell yesterday, today could be flat to mildly +ve.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy, buy below 5268NF target 5296/5317 SL 5238.

4.         Even though market is +ve, CE are not rising in tandem with nifty and nor is PE falling. It shows buyers are not as sure as sellers.

5.         SL gone. Today's gap filled up. ‎-WW target of the first post met.

6.         Today was again a disappointing day considering that nifty opened up with a small gap, remained in 25 point range for over four hours and then broke down by another 25 points, finally closing -ve. It also made a higher high than yesterday but same low as yesterday. However, nifty fut made a lower high than yesterday. The resistance of 5267 NS could not be broken. The -ww stated in the first post gave its target. The SL of buy call given by 9.30 strategy was triggered. Reverse sell trade was not possible since fall came late in the afternoon.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/07/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (12/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5304, 5294, 5286/85, 5278/72 and 5200 while resistances are at 5314/15, 5356, 5362 and 5407. A number of -WWs posted in the past give about 5280/ 5260/ 5250/ 5225 once below 5310/ 5305 while two +WWs give 5360/ 5390 once above 5322. I feel that market will be flat to +ve on Thursday but volatility is guaranteed since it is a day of results of Infy & TCE as well as IIP data.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5357.95/5200.25 and close at 5240. Such as pre-open has not happened for at least a month though range is not so big as before e.g. yesterday. Nifty will surely open -ve but further trend is uncertain. May be it will recover.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy, buy below 5289NF target 5309 SL 5259. However, it is better not to trade today, particularly when there is gap down opening and market mood is spoiled by infy. Also, it is a day of IIP data and hence volatility will be high unless IIP is also bad. So, SL may be triggered. If one wants to take risk then buy below 5279 so that SL is only20 points away, which is NOW.

4.         SL hit, now sell above 5260NF target 5230/20 SL 5290.

‎5.         9.30 strategy target almost met. Buy now with about 5200NS/5210NF as SL. Those who bought made >30 point gain.

6.         Thanks to first infy results before market opened and then IIP data later, today was a bad day, proving that yesterday's decision to carry longs was wrong. Nifty opened down with a gap (as was indicated by pre-open), broke through all supports, except the last one of 5200 mentioned in the first post. However, it was volatile as expected. The SL of 9.30 strategy (going long) was triggered but the reverse short trade gave its target. In the process, nifty yielded targets of all the four -WWs mentioned over last few days. Another reverse trade, this time long, taken after the short target was met, gave >30 points gain too. So, for an agile and flexible trader, it was a good trade, in spite of a -ve and volatile market. Nifty closed 71 points down but appears to be headed south unless it reverses to cross 5246 NS and then 5262 and remains above them.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/07/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (11/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5319, 5287, 5267 and 5195 while resistances are at 5350/54, 5396, 5410 and 5452. A -WW gives about 5250 once below 5302 while an older one gives 5220. A likely bullish flag gives 5383 unless killed below about 5324. However, I feel that market will be flat to -ve. Volatility is to be watched.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5345.35/4957.75 and close at 5315.25. We haven't seen such a low pre-open since 22nd June. I feel market may be flat to -ve, at least for some time. I feel today's range may be 60-90 points.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy buy below 5343NF target 5366/83 SL 5313. But be careful since I feel SL may be triggered. Buy closer to SL than 5345 if you wish.

4.         May be we will see 5388 tmrw (12/07/12). I feel it's a good sign that nifty is closing with indicators at/near oversold levels.

5.         Market opened -ve and also closed -ve as per earlier posts. It broke the first support but not the first resistance. It also made a lower high and a higher low compared to yesterday. However, range was narrow (40 points). As feared, SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but only by 0.40. Once again, it turned out to be a wise decision to carry shorts from yesterday. But it gave gains only after some palpitation due to volatility.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/07/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (10/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5261, 5242/40, 5220 and 5184 while resistances are at 5277/78, 5285, 5316, 5348, 5353 and 5383. A small -WW gives about 5268 (very close) while an older one gives 5225. One +ww gives 5301 while another one gives 5357 once above 5285. However, I don't expect the latter to materialise tmrw. I feel that market will be flat to +ve tmrw. Volatility is to be watched.

2.         Reminder to those who went long at the end of day today - sell immediately after open tmrw if NS/NF opens below today's close i.e. about 5275/5279 or less.

3.         Pre-open high/low at 5575.90/5272.30 and close at 5286.60. It indicates a flat or mildly +ve opening. Also, market has gone up only twice with such a pre-open in the past. I am hoping today to be the third such an up day.

4.         As per 9.30 strategy, buy below 5306NF target 5325/5341 SL 5276. The opening candle was a doji and so caution needed as SL on either side can be triggered. Also take half the normal qty for trading. Note that cmp is attractive and looks an easy bait.

5.         Long holders should watch SL. A number of small -WWs give 5282NF (inside SL so no problem), 5272/68 and 5255. Also sgxnifty made a low of 5257 yesterday and nifty normally visits that.

6.         Nifty opened above yesterday's close as I stated in the first post. However, after remaining in a flat range of 25 points for over 4 hours, it broke out. It not only made a higher low and a higher high but also a new high. In the process it met both +ww targets. What's more, it also more than met both the targets of 9.30 strategy. So, yesterday's decision to carry longs was a wise one. However, nifty could not close above the resistance level of 5348 (made a high of 5348.05). Luckily, it did not go down to visit yesterday's low of sgxnifty and thereby giving targets of all three -WWs mentioned earlier.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/07/12

LEADER POST for Monday (09/07/12)

1.         Supports are at 5302, 5299/97/94 and 5228 while the other levels (zone) to watch are the previous lows in 5260-90 region. Resistances are at 5318, 5325, 5342/44, 5368 and 5411. But -WWs posted last week, which give targets of about 5280, 5265, 5255 and 5230 still remain a threat. I feel that market will continue to have flat to negative bias due to consolidation on Monday and perhaps the whole of next week. Volatility is to be watched.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5520.80/5283.55 and close at 5283.70. It may indicate a -ve market today.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy, sell above 5298Nf target 5270/57 SL 5328.

4.         As I had stated in the first post as well as after pre-open, market opened below yesterday's close, made a lower high & low and broke through two supports and did not reach anywhere near first resistance. It went about 59 points below yesterday's close. In the process, targets of three of the four -WWs were also met. Also, the first target of 9.30 call was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/07/12

1.         For Friday (06/07/12), supports are at 5325/22, 5315/10, 5287/86, 5244 and 5214 while resistances are at 5335, 5358, 5385, 5398 and 5405. A likely flag gives about 5345 unless nullified below about 5316. As mentioned elsewhere, indicators closed at medium level and hence either side move is possible tmrw. But four -WWs threaten 5282 once below 5316, 5269 once below 5309, 5257 once below 5307 and 5231 once below 5319. Also, nifty seems to be in a rising wedge with a possible break down level of 5322 and is also in channel with a possible break down level of 5316. It then transpires that if nifty goes below the crucial zone of 5320-10, it may have a break down. Hence, I feel next two days will be important as well as turbulent.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5567.75/5308.15 and close at 5324.70. The only time market went up on such days in recent past was last friday and once in May. I feel market may react first and then go up

3.         As per 9.30 strategy, sell above 5323.50 target 5295/73 SL 5353.50

4.         NF made a low of 5302 i.e. within 7 points of target. If it goes above 5323.50 from here or from whatever lower level, it's risky to take sell trade later

5.         If target is not met by 10.30/35, it's difficult

6.         I think last friday NS/NF closed at 5278/97 (pl confirm). Monday closed -ve and as per old sentiment it means week should close -ve. But this year has seen major sentiments being thrown out. Let's hope it closes +ve today and give a green weekly candle.

7.         Nifty opened lower than yesterday's close, broke yesterday's low, could not break yesterday's high and also closed -ve. Today it almost went upto 3rd support and could not break first resistance. This as well as the apparent rising wedge, channel and the -WWs mentioned in my first post above suggest a -ve to flat bias for monday and perhaps for next week on account of consolidation, unless it breaks above 5342 and continues its journey up. The medium trend is, however, +ve since this week closed +ve.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/07/12

1.         For Thursday (05/07/12), supports are close to each other at 5297/94, 5285, 5278/76, 5268 and 5193 while resistances are at 5305/06, 5318, 5348, 5369/70 and 5376. A small +ww gives 5320 while a likely flag gives 5333 unless killed below 5290. I feel, nifty is on the verge of a break-out and it is only a question of how much more market tries our patience.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5314.40/5294.80 and close at 5297.05. This is a very narrow range and is inconclusive for day's trend. May be listless since there were no clues from US and Asian markets are lacklustre.

3.         As per 9.30 strategy, buy below 5333NF target 5351 SL 5303. first 5tf candle is a doji. Such days are generally volatile and may take out SLs on either side, so trade with half of your normal qty.

4.         NS must cross above 5305/6, 5310 and 5318 and not go below 5295 and 5289.

5.         Nifty did not breach second support of 5285 nor did it cross third resistance of 5348. Once it crossed today's previous high of about 5312, it gave a mini break-out and went up by 21 point. It thus made a new high today and in the process gave targets of +ww and flag mentioned in the first post. As mentioned above 5319-5336 has acted as supply zone so far. Indicators are at medium levels and hence either way move is possible tmrw considering that a number of -WWs threaten much lower levels once nifty is below 5316. So, one needs to be cautious now.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-04/07/12

1.         For Wednesday (04/07/12), supports are at 5288/83, 5275 and 5255. Other levels to watch are in the zone 5180-95. This also contains the gap on last Friday. Resistances are at 5294, 5334, 5342 and 5357. Other possible upper levels are 5370/75. A -ww gives 5253 but point 5 is at 5360. As mentioned under the thread on today's nifty, nifty almost made a double bottom with yesterday's low and then reversed sharply thereby making it difficult to suggest next move. I feel that market may go max to 5375 (although not necessarily tmrw). However, 5342 is an important level for reversal. Similarly, 5195 is also possible but strong buying is expected around 5220/40. Note that this week (and may be next one too) is for consolidation.

2.         Pcr at 1.20 and vix at 18.56. My concern is that INR has improved too fast and FIIs may be encouraged to book quick profits, albeit partially.

3.         Pre-open high/low at 5327.55/5287.95 and close at 5310.40. I feel today could have a 40-60 point range.

4.         As of now, buy below 5336 target 5358/ SL 5306. But be careful, since market may knock out SLs on either side like yesterday and yield one or both targets. Note that CMP is well below buy level, which creates doubt. If SL is hit, sell above 5301 target 5277/67 SL 5331.

5.         I would consider that SL for long is triggered as exact SL was actually 5306.30.

6.         When SL is hit quickly, always do half qty in reverse trade. If both SLs are hit, no further trade for that day.

7.         As explained yesterday, when overall trend is bullish, a short trade is always risky during the consolidation period due to volatility.

8.         Shortsellers should be alert now. It looks like NS may not go below 5260.

9.         Note that nifty has not only opened above previous low but also has made a new high every day since 2nd july; after the big rally on 29th june. Also, low of 2nd july was 5263.90, that on 3rd was 5266.20 and that as of today is 5273.35. If it doesn't break these recent lows, we may see another upmove in coming days.

10.       If it doesn't go up after 3.05 pm then we may not get 5320 today.

11.       Nifty opened above previous close and also made a higher high and low once again as it did on 2nd and 3rd july. It also closed above the high on 2nd, which is encouraging.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/07/12

1.         For Tuesday (03/07/12), supports are at 5271, 5256, 5229, 5181 and 5162 (and 5095). Resistances are at 5290, 5300, 5307/10, 5317, 5331 and 5346. One -ww gives 5262 and is active and another gives 5195 below 5267 but it may be doubtful (I may be biased that nifty may not go down so much). Always remember that nifty is bullish in general and hence trade close to levels.

2.         pcr 1.21 vix 19.01

3.         Pre-open high/low at 5302.50/5231.90 and close at 5298.85. This may indicate an upmove so short sellers should be careful

4.         As per 9.30 strategy, sell above 5301 target 5281 SL 5331. One may use 5345NF as SL from second strategy if willing to take more risk. Be careful as SL may be triggered soon.

5.         If SL is triggered, buy below 5342 target 5361/75 SL 5312

6.         Buy below 5339NF instead of 5342 target 5361/75 SL 5309

7.         Please note lower targets 5281/73NF. as a safe bet keep SL as 5337/45 instead of 5331

8.         Nifty today went upto the fourth resistance mentioned in the first post and also a little below first support. In the process it almost gave target of -ww. It also made a near double bottom with yesterday's low and reversed sharply thereby making it difficult to suggest next move

9.         Important aspect of today was that SLs on either side were triggered and then target of original down trend was met.