Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/05/13

LEADER POST for Friday (10/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6042, 6025, 6017 and 5997 while resistances are at about 6077, 6088 and 6110. Previous lower and higher levels to watch are 5928 and 6111. Three likely +WWs give about 6064, 6105 and 6130 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 6027, 6009, 6003 and 5984 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 5700. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5936 unless nifty goes and remains above 6088.

Nifty reacted and barely managed to close above 6050 and hints at further dips. However, both the weekly and monthly candles are bullish and it may not go down much. First sign of weakness will come in case of a close below 6017 on Friday. A weekly close above 6087/6112 will be bullish. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high.

2.         PCR up at 1.23 and VIX down at 16.60. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6060 till afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6068NF, TARGET 6098, SL 6038.

4.         Target of first +ww met.

5.         Target achieved.

6.         Target of second +ww also met.

7.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap, tried to go up but reacted again. However, it made a double bottom and rose sharply after noon to make a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. It also closed at a new daily high since 5/1/11. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post as well as that of 9.30 strategy trade were met. The daily candle is a Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/05/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (09/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6024, 6010, 5995, 5978 and 5960 while resistances are at about 6095 and 6130. Previous lower and higher levels to watch are 5928 and 6111. A likely +WW gives about 6120 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Six likely -WWs give about 6049 (once below 6070), 6042 (once below 6073), 6035 (once below 6071), 6025 (once below 6086), 6023 (once below 6059) and 5987 (once below 6026) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 5700. A rising wedge can give about 5936 in case of a BD below 6061.

Nifty rose again to close above 6050, at a new high since 5th Jan and is bullish. But it reacted from the TL from Nov '10 to Jan '13 and may go down a bit more. Also, the daily candle is a hanging man, a likely bearish sign. A close below 6064, particularly with a gap down open will confirm it. However, both the weekly and monthly candles are bullish and it may not go down much. 6115-30 may be a resistance zone this week while 5980 may provide support on Thursday. A weekly close above 6075/6083/6112 will be bullish. A daily close below 5950 may be bad. Bulls will hope that the improved micro-economic situation in India will take market further up. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high.. Also, the daily candle is a hanging man, a likely bearish sign. A close below 6064, particularly with a gap down open, will confirm it. However, both the weekly and monthly candles are bullish and it may not go down much. 6115-30 may be a resistance zone this week while 5980 may provide support on Thursday. A weekly close above 6075/6083/6112 will be bullish. A daily close below 5950 may be bad. Bulls will hope that the improved micro-economic situation in India will take market further up. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high.

2.         PCR up at 1.22 and VIX up at 16.76. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains above 6102 till afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6083NF, TARGET 6044, SL 6113.

4.         Target of 9.30 strategy trade met.

5.         Targets of first two -WWs met.

6.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but reacted immediately. It tried to make a recovery but reacted again. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post as well as that of 9.30 strategy trade were met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/05/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (08/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6035, 5996, 5972, 5958 and 5900 while resistances are at about 6055 and 6130. Previous lower and higher levels to watch are 5860 and 6111. Two likely +WWs give about 6070 and 6090 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 6032 (once below 6045), 6013 (once below 6035), 6003, 5991 (once below 6019) and 5900 (once below 5989) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 5700. A rising wedge can give about 5936 in case of a BD below 6035 while a rising channel can give about 5867 in case of a BD below 5982.

Nifty rose sharply again to close above 6000 and is bullish. The monthly candle is also bullish. However, I feel 6115-30 may be a strong resistance zone this week while 5965 may provide support on Wednesday. A close below 5950 may be bad. Bulls will hope that the improved micro-economic situation in India will take market further up. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high.

2.         PCR up at 1.20 and VIX up at 16.50. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap open unless it remains above 6044 till afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6051NF, TARGET 6021, SL 6081.

4.         Be careful of volatility.

5.         If SL is hit, buy below 6082NF, target 6113, SL 6052.

6.         Target of first +ww met.

7.         Target of first -ww met.

8.         SL hit.

9.         Nifty opened up with a gap and quickly reacted but recovered again by noon to make a higher low and high than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and -ww of the first post were met. The target of 9.30 strategy trade was just missed and then its SL was hit too late in the day to give target of reverse trade. The daily candle is a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/05/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (07/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5961, 5943, 5926, 5915, 5898, 5885 and 5850 while resistances are at about 5986, 6013, 6030 and 6055. Previous lower and higher levels to watch are 5860 and 6020. Three likely +WWs give about 6013, 6025 and 6045 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5957 (once below 5982, which is yet to be reached) and 5933 (once below 5975) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 5700. Nifty seems to have broken out of a DT and a ST and may go to 6030. But if this BO is false, their BD may give 5880/90.

Nifty rose again to close above 5950 and, particularly, just above 5971, the previous level from which it had reacted a few times earlier. The daily candle is a combination of an imperfect Harami and an imperfect Western Inside Session, indicating a possibility of reversal/further consolidation and also a possible lull before the storm. However, monthly candle is still bullish. A close below 5850 will intensify selling. Bulls will hope that the improved micro-economic situation in India will take market further up. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high for a few days.

2.         PCR up at 1.14 and VIX up at 15.84. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5950 till afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6002NF, TARGET 6033, SL 5972.

4.         Target of 9.30 strategy trade met.

5.         Targets of first two +WWs and those of BO of DT and ST mentioned in the first post met.

6.         Target of third +ww of the first post met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, remained in a range of about 25 points before making its upmove in the afternoon. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. It also closed at a new high since 31st Jan. The targets of the three +WWs and those of the BO of AT and ST of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/05/13

LEADER POST for Monday (06/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5917, 5897, 5978 and 5864 while resistances are at about 5960, 5977, 5993 and 6006. Previous lower level to watch is 5860. A +WW gives about 5983 (once above 5939) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5920, 5840 and 5835 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two bullish flags can give higher level unless killed below 5700/5924.

Nifty reacted to close below important psychological level of 5950 thereby almost nullifying Thursday's gains. The daily candle is an Inside Bar and an imperfect bearish Harami while the weekly candle is an Advance Block Platter indicating exhaustion, at least temporarily, and some consolidation. However, monthly candle is still bullish. Also, nifty closed above an important Gann number of 5838 on weekly basis. Hence, if and when it validates this by crossing over previous high of 6020, it becomes a strong buy (for a possible target of 6900-7000). A close below 5850 will intensify selling. Bulls will hope that the improved micro-economic situation in India will take market further up. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high for a few days.

2.         PCR up at 1.12 and VIX down at 15.55. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a flat opening unless it remains below 5915 till afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5944NF, TARGET 5915, SL 5974.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5975NF, target 6005, SL 5945.

5.         SL hit.

6.         A new -ww gives 5938NS.

7.         -WW target met.

8.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

9.         SL hit again, for the third time.

10.       Nifty opened up with a slight gap, made a slightly lower low and then rose but could not make a higher high and fell again before finally rising to close +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was missed but that of the -ww identified during the day was met. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit three times but neither side target was met. The daily candle is a combination of imperfect Low Price Harami and an imperfect Western Inside Session.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/05/13

LEADER POST for Friday (03/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5989, 5971, 5938 and 5889 while resistances are at about 6012, 6040, 6060 and 6110. Previous lower and higher levels to watch are 5860 and 6111. A +WW gives about 6045 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5949 (once below 5973) and 5879 (once below 5992) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two bullish flags can give higher level unless killed below 5700/5924.

Nifty rose sharply again to go over 6000 (but just missed closing above 6000) thereby nullifying the bearishness of Tuesday's imperfect hanging Man and a Doji. The nifty thus indicates a strong bullish tendency. The monthly candle is also bullish. Nifty now needs to give a weekly close above at least 5950/65. A close below 5950 may trigger further selling. Bulls will hope that the improved micro-economic situation in India will take market further up. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Friday being the day of RBI policy, volatility may be high and hence trade carefully.

2.         PCR up at 1.09 and VIX up at 16.28. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a flattish open unless it remains below 5995 till afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5992NF, TARGET 5955, SL 6022.

4.         Target of first -ww met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy trade met but without giving chance of an entry.

6.         However, sell triggered again with 6022NF as SL. Better to sell closer to SL to be safe.

7.         Target of 9.30 strategy trade met again after giving entry.

8.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap and continued to slide. Though it made a sharp rally soon after, it did not sustain and it slid again to make a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. Also, the target of 9.30 strategy was met twice, once without giving chance of an entry and later after giving a good chance of an entry. The daily candle is an Inside Bar while the weekly candles form an Advance Block Platter.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-02/05/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (02/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5901, 5878, 5861 and 5848 while resistances are at about 5939 and 5980. Previous lower and higher levels to watch are 5853 and 5971. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5893 (once below 5926) and 5854 (once below 5932) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two bullish flags can give higher level unless killed below 5630/5895.

Nifty rose again to close above 5900. However, the daily candle is an imperfect hanging Man and a Doji, indicating uncertainty and a bearish sentiment, which will be confirmed if nifty closes well below 5830, preferably with a gap down open. The monthly candle, however, is bullish. Nifty now needs to close consistently above 5955. A close below first 5850 followed by 5790 may trigger further selling. Bulls will hope that the improved micro-economic situation in India will take market further up. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.08 and VIX up at 15.10. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5912 till late afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5942NF, TARGET 5981, SL 5912.

4.         Target met without giving a chance to buy.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap (though nifty fut opened up with a small gap) and continued to go up relentlessly, making a higher high and low than those on Tuesday before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above Tuesday's close. It thus closed at a new high since 1st Feb. The target of 9.30 strategy was met easily but without giving a chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.