Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (31/07/13)

1.         Support is at about 5723 while resistances are at about 5802, 5817, 5869 and 5950. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5682. Four +WWs can give about 5859 (once above 5791), 5917 (once above 5849), 5954 (once above 5879) and 5977 (once above 5794) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5577 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge/channel break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5800.

Nifty fell again and closed below 5800 and is clearly very bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Support exists at about 5750 and some recovery is possible as nifty has fallen for five straight days but higher levels are possible only if it closes above 5900. A close below 5723 can result in much lower levels as weekly support lies at 5612/5548. Wednesday's close is important as it will be a monthly close. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall. Fed policy being on 31/07, trade carefully.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 5739 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5796NF, TARGET 5736, SL 5826.

4.         Target met without giving chance of an entry.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, fell further to make a lower low but rose sharply later in the day to close slightly +ve but below yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a long legged doji cum hammer cum imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (30/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5797, 5789 and 5728 while resistances are at about 5856, 5923, 5950, 5983 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5750 and 5630. However, 50wma is at about 5803 and nifty may take support around that level. Four +WWs can give about 5949 (once above 5828), 5952 (once above 5884), 6016 (once above 5950) and 6044 (once above 5939) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5776 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5850.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap down open and closed below 5850 and, particularly, below 200dma, which is clearly bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Also, an imperfect morning star has formed in daily candle. To satisfy this likely bullish sign, nifty must close well above 5900 on Tuesday, preferably with a gap up open. About 5800 can be the SL for longs while about 5950 the SL for shorts, both SLs being on daily close basis. A close below 5800 can result in much lower levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall. Tuesday being the RBI policy review and Fed policy being on 31/07, trade carefully.

2.         PCR flat at 1.0 and VIX up at 18.25. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to +ve nifty after a slightly gap up open unless it remains below 5836 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5866NF, TARGET 5839, SL 5896.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5900NF, target 5927, SL 5870.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Target of original trade met.

8.         Target of -ww of the first post met.

9.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap and rose a bit before tanking after RBI policy review to make a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process previous lower gap at 5816 was filled. The target of -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side before giving the original target.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (29/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5840 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5935, 6002 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5830, 5750 and 5630. However, it may be noted that 200dma is at about 5852, 26wema is at about 5861 and 50wma is at about 5792. Also, TL joining lows of shoulders of IHnS gives about 5851. Hence and nifty may take support there. Four +WWs can give about 5942 (once above 5888), 5951 (once above 5893), 6010 (once above 5953) and 6022 (once above 5946) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5817 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling wedge break outs can give about 6045/85 if nifty remains above 5878.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap up open and closed below 5900 and is clearly bearish. Also, a mild -ve div is seen on weekly chart. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs and a mild recovery is likely. About 5850 can be the SL for longs while about 6110 the SL for shorts, both SLs being on daily close basis. A break below 5830 can result in lower levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         PCR unchanged at 1.0 and VIX up at 16.78. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it remains above 5870 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5895NF, TARGET 5871, SL 5925.

4.         Target met.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, reacted a bit and then recovered again. However, it fell again in the afternoon to make a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's low. The target of 9.30 strategy trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (26/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5870, 5840 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5935, 6002 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5830, 5750 and 5630. It is to be noted that 50/200 dma are at 5905 and 5851 and nifty may take support there. Three +WWs can give about 5948, 6006 (once above 5956) and 6046 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5889 and 5830 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge break out can give about 6085 if nifty goes above 5927.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap down open and just managed to close above 5900 and is clearly bearish. Also, a mild -ve div is seen on weekly chart. About 5850 can be the SL for longs while about 6110 the SL for shorts. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR crashed to 1.0 and VIX down at 16.72. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5937 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5970NF, TARGET 6000, SL 5940.

4.         If SL is hit sell above 5941NF, target 5910, SL 5971.

5.         (Post by LKL) SL is hitted (sic).

6.         Target of reverse trade met.

7.         Target of first -WW was met around noon.

8.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but that was the end of it. It started sliding and made a lower high and low than those yesterday. It tried to rally late in the day only to retreat again, closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met.

The chart for the week shows further slide possible. However, due to +ve div in lower tf, some recovery is possible.

The intraday and week’s chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (25/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5967, 5917, 5857 and 5820 while resistances are at about 6001, 6046, 6065 and 6093. Two +WWs can give about 5999 and 6070 (once above 6021) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5889 and 5857 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty fell sharply in spite of a gap down open and closed below 6000 and seems to be headed down. The evening star and the "coiled spring" pattern mentioned in Wednesday's thread showed its effect. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. This being an expiry day, trade carefully and book trades quickly.

2.         PCR down at 1.29 and VIX up at 16.91. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5970 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5995NF, TARGET 6025, SL 5965.

4.         SL hit.

5.         Since SL is hit, sell above 5966NF, target 5935, SL 5996.

6.         Bearish flag can give 5924 unless killed above 6010.

7.         Target of reverse trade met.

8.         Target of bearish flag mentioned earlier met.

9.         Nifty again opened down with a gap and kept going down. It made a lower high and low than yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met. Also met was target of a bearish flag posted during the day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (24/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6057, 6030 and 6000 while resistances are at about 6090, 6107, 6157 and 6248. Three +WWs can give about 6094, 6126 and 6200 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6038 (once below 6088), 6010 (once below 6066) and 5985 (once below 6096) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty rose in spite of a gap up open and closed above 6050 and seems to be headed upwards. Also, the mild -ve div seen earlier in RSI on daily chart has vanished. However, daily candle is an evening star and an imperfect inverted hammer, likely bearish signs. Hence, nifty will have to close at a higher high, preferably with a gap up open, to defeat it. Tuesday was a NR7 day. Repeated small range days have formed a "coiled spring" pattern and we could see a blow-out with big moves.

About 6050 seems to be a tight SL for longs but 6000 is the last SL. If 6150 is not crossed on Wednesday, expiry could be below 6100 but, if it is, then we could see 6200+ by expiry. If 6000 is breached, it could fall sharply. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. This being an expiry week, trade carefully and book trades quickly.

2.         PCR at 6 month high at 1.38 and VIX down at 16.72. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains below 6032 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY BUY BELOW 6063NF, TARGET 6092, SL 6033.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 6031NF, target 6001, SL 6061.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of reverse trade met but without giving a chance of an entry.

7.         Targets of first two -WWs of the first post met.

8.         Target of third -WW of the first post also met.

9.         Thanks to RBI's tough action, nifty opened down with a gap and kept sliding. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. Targets of all the three -WWs of the first post were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met, though without giving chance of entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (23/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6000 and 5976 while resistances are at about 6067, 6090, 6129 and 6157. Six +WWs can give about 6053 (once above 6031), 6075 (once above 6048), 6078, 6085 (once above 6022), 6091, and 6123 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5992, 5933 and 5894 (once below 6055) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty rose after a gap down open and managed to close above 6000 again. However, it broke Friday's low twice and made lower high as well. Also, a mild -ve div is seen in RSI on daily chart though not at oversold levels. Hence, nifty may not fall much. About 6000 seems to be a tight SL for longs but 5970 is probably the last SL in immediate term. If 6150 is not crossed latest by Wednesday, expiry could be below 6100. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.32 and VIX down at 17.63. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 6064 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6091NF, TARGET 6123, SL 6061.

4.         Targets of first three +WWs of the first post met.

5.         Target of fourth +WW of the first post met. Target of daily bullish flag of the first post also met.

6.         Target of fifth +WW of the first post met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a gap and made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first five +WWs of the first post were met. However, total range was only about 32 and hence target of 9.30 strategy was not met. It was a NR7 day. Daily candle is an evening star and an imperfect inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (22/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6005 and 5979 while resistances are at about 6114 and 6182. Three +WWs can give about 6052, 6076, and 6124 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5971/5949 (once below 6049) and 5981 once below 6014 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty reacted after making a higher high but managed to close above 6000. However, after the initial morning high, it made a lower high and low implying that lower levels are possible. Also, weekly chart shows an imperfect hanging man and a mild -ve div is seen in RSI on daily chart though not at oversold levels. Hence nifty may not fall much. Friday was a NR7 day and big move is expected on Monday. Higher levels look very likely next week. About 6000 seems to be a tight SL for longs but 5970 is probably the last SL in immediate term. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR down at 1.31 and VIX down at 18.13. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6010 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6010NF, TARGET 5983, SL 6040.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6047NF, target 6074, SL 6017.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Two new +WWs give about 6063/68.

7.         Target of first +WW of the first post met.

8.         Target of first +WW above met.

9.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and made a lower low but rose immediately. However, it could not make a higher high. It reacted again before closing +ve and slightly above Friday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met as also that of a +ww identified later in the day. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was narrowly missed by 1.10 points.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (19/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6005, 5955 and 5935 while resistances are at about 6067, 6110 and 6182. Three +WWs can give about 6070, 6119 and 6188 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5974/5921/5900 (once below 6050) and 5962 once below 6028 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700. Another smaller bullish flag can give about 6077 unless killed below 6005.

Nifty rose sharply to close above 6000 i.e. at a new high since 30/05 and looks bullish. Also RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much and higher levels look very likely. However, weekly candle is in a danger of becoming a hanging man and hence Friday's close is very important. Also, a break below 5935 will be worrisome but a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up

2.         PCR up at 1.36 and VIX down at 18.27. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain but possibly +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6057 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6034NF, TARGET 6008, SL 6064.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6073NF, target 6099, SL 6043.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, making a higher high. However, it could not sustain and slid down later in the day, still managing to make a higher low than Thursday. The target of first +ww of the first post was narrowly missed. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side due to high volatility but neither side targets were met. Friday was a NR7 day and the weekly candle is an imperfect hanging man.

8.         The whole week’s chart shows bullish tone. However, lower high and lower low made on Friday after the initial morning high may hint at lower levels on Monday. Tight SL for longs seems to be about 6000 but otherwise it is 5970. If SL is not triggered, much higher levels are possible next week and the one after that.

The intraday chart and week’s chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (18/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5960, 5933 and 5855 while resistances are at about 6040 and 6105. A number of +WWs can give about 5994, 6000, 6028, 6060, 6070 and 6085 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5902, 5870 and 5852 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty closed flat but above 5950 and 50/200 sma. RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much. However, daily candle is doji showing uncertainty, which can be removed by a +ve close well above 5974 on Thursday, preferably after a gap up open. A break below 5880 and a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR down at 1.26 and VIX up at 19.36. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5984 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5998NF, TARGET 6031, SL 5968.

4.         Target of first two +WWs of the first post were met soon after open.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         Target of third +WW of the first post also met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, reacted a bit and remained in a tight range of about 30 points till late in the afternoon. It then rose very sharply in the last 40 min. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. In fact, it made a higher than that on 15/07, its low was above yesterday's close and it closed at a new high since 30/05 but just missed closing above the high of 15/07 by a mere 0.20 points. The targets of first three +WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (17/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5935, 5908 and 5855 while resistances are at about 5975, 6013, 6040 and 6100. Two +WWs can give about 5999 and 6060 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5940, 5853 and 5840 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty recovered after a big gap down open and managed to close above 5950 and remain above 50/200 sma. RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much. A break below 5880 and a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR at 1.28 and VIX at 18.99. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain but possibly +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5972 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6003NF, TARGET 6028, SL 5973.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5964NF, target 5938, SL 5994.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of first -ww of the first post met.

7.         Target of reverse trade met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and remained flat for a while before reacting only to recover later. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing slightly +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. The daily candle is a doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (16/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5990, 5937 and 5882 while resistances are at about 6053, 6087 and 6100. A +WWs can give about 6066 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5994 (once below 6014), 5954 (once below 6019) and 5949 (once below 6026) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty rose again and closed above 6000 at a new high since 30/05 thereby nullifying bearishness hinted by Friday's hanging man. RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much. Intraday breach of 5950 should be taken as alert but a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests an uncertain but possibly -ve nifty closing after a gap down open unless it remains above 5931 by afternoon.

3.         (NF) Open 6032 and low 5844.40. Such weird levels don't tell anything. I will try to post 9.30 strategy if chart data shows moderate levels. Targets of all the three -WWs of the first post met in the open itself.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY BASED ON NS LEVELS, BUY BELOW 5940NS, TARGET 5973, SL 5910.

5.         Nifty opened down with a big gap but quickly started recovering. It made a lower high and low than yesterday (in fact the high was below yesterday's low) before closing +ve but below yesterday's close. The targets of all the three -WWs of the first post were met but that of 9.30 strategy was missed. The daily candle is like a morning star though it is not at the end of a downtrend. However, nifty fut candle is hammer due to freak levels during open.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (15/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5980, 5950, 5939 and 5890 while resistances are at about 6040, 6062 and 6095. Two +WWs can give about 6072 and 6100 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five -WWs can give about 5962 (once below 5986), 5950 (once below 5993), 5931 (once below 5970), 5925 (once below 5960) and 5873 (once below 5950) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty closed flattish after a gap up opening but yet closed above 6000, giving strongly bullish signal. But, the daily candle is a hanging man, a bearish sign. However, RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much. Intraday breach of 5950 should be taken as alert but a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5991 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5984NF, TARGET 5960, SL 6014.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6026NF, target 6051, SL 5996.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and remained flat for a while before taking off. It made a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing +ve and also above Friday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (12/07/13)

1.         Due to failure of the chart website, I am unable to post support or resistance levels. Two +WWs can give about 6010 and 6045 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -ww can give 5680 once below 5951 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty rose sharply even after a gap up opening and closed above not just 200 sma but 50 sma as well giving short term bullish tone. A close below about 5870 can start a downward reaction again. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.22 and VIX down at 18.89. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains above 6000 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6027NF, TARGET 5959, SL 6057.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         Once again nifty opened up with a gap but reacted immediately. However, it still made a higher high and low (in fact today's low was higher than yesterday's high too) than those yesterday before closing marginally +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met as also that of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty fut values with 5 min candles is shown below. Also shown below is a nifty spot chart for this week in 5tf.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (11/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5780 and 5695 while resistances are at about 5845, 5871, 5894 and 5943. The unfilled gap on the lower side is at about 5682. Five +WWs can give about 5866/5885 (once above 5839), 5895, 5920 and 5945 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5676 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. Another bearish flag can give about 5770 unless killed above 5845. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty reacted in spite of a gap up opening but managed to close above 5800. However, it closed again below 200 sma indicating highly volatile nature of the market. The trend is still bearish. The daily candle is a bearish engulfing one. A close below about 5760 can cause a big fall. While, if nifty closes above 50 sma (about 5920), it will give hopes to bulls. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR down at 1.13 and VIX up at 19.98. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5894 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5898NF, TARGET 5942, SL 5868.

4.         Targets of first four +WWs of the first post met.

5.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         Target of fifth +ww also met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a big gap and yet didn't look back. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of all the five +WWs of the first post were met as also that of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty fut values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (10/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5843, 5811 and 5782 while resistances are at about 5898, 5927 and 5988. The unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 5868/5682. Six +WWs can give about 5890, 5898, 5910, 5930, 5943 and 5985 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5803 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty closed above 5850 and also above 200 sma again, at the least confirming the volatile nature of the market. The trend still appears to be bearish. The daily candle is like an evening star though it is not at the top of an uptrend. Nevertheless, confirmation of its bearish tone will be if nifty closes -ve on Wednesday, particularly after a gap down open. A close below about 5760 can cause a big fall. While, if nifty closes above 50 sma (about 5921), it will give hopes to bulls. Tuesday was a NR7 day and one can expect a big move on Wednesday. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open doji candle indicates an uncertain to +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5869 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5896NF, TARGET 5921, SL 5866.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5859NF, target 5832, SL 5889.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Gap on the upper side filled up.

7.         Target of reverse trade met.

8.         Target of -ww met.

9.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and filled up the upper gap, which was unfilled till yesterday. It then remained in a range of about 25 points before suddenly tanking in the afternoon. It thus made a higher high and lower low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and target of reverse trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (09/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5782 and 5767 while resistances are at about 5825, 5844, 5873, 5897 and 5927. The unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 5868/5682. Four +WWs can give about 5877, 5910 (once above 5819), 5934 and 5942 (once above 5829) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5720 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty recovered after a gap down opening and managed to close above 5800 but again below 200 sma and thus confirming the evening star of Friday and the hanging man of last week. The trend still appears to be bearish. Only if nifty closes above 50 sma (about 5922), it will give hopes to bulls. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.19 and VIX up at 19.34. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5834 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5860NF, TARGET 5894, SL 5830.

4.         Nifty opened up with a gap and went up to make a higher high but reacted immediately only to recover again. It made a higher low before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The total range was narrow at about 30 and hence none of the targets were met. The gap on upper side was narrowly missed from getting fully filled up. Today was a NR7 day again. The daily candle is like an evening star.

         The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (08/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5830, 5797 and 5749 while resistances are at about 5887, 5899 and 5933. The unfilled gaps on the lower side are at about 5837/5682. Three +WWs can give about 5884 (once above 5855), 5886 (once above 5865) and 5942 (once above 5831) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5833 (once below 5880), 5788 (once below 5863) and 5744 (once below 5886) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

           Nifty fell in spite of a gap up opening due to rising oil prices and falling INR, as was mentioned in Friday's thread. Though the day and week closed comfortably above 200/50 sma respectively, the daily candle is like an evening star while the weekly candle is like a hanging man, both bearish signs. The confirmation of this bearish sign will come if Monday closes Red and below Friday's close, particularly after a gap down open. If nifty closes above 50 sma (about 5924), it will give hopes to bullis. A close below 200 sma (about 5832) may cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

 

2.         PCR up at 1.18 and VIX up at 18.67.

3.         (Posted by LKL) “9:30 Strategy - SELL above 5856 NF target 5794 SL 5886. Target met without chance of entry".

4.         First lower gap of first post filled up soon after open.

5.         Targets of first two -WWs of the first post met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a gap and continued to go down. However, it recovered after about an hour. It made a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's close. The first gap on lower side was filled up soon after open. Targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met. The target of 9.30 strategy was also met soon after open but chance of an entry did not materialise. The daily candle is a hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (05/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5815, 5797, 5781 and 5739 while resistances are at about 5857, 5933 and 6038. The unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 5858/5682. Four +WWs can give about 5897 (once above 5833), 5904, 5941 (once above 5834) and 6043 (once above 5901) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5826 (once below 5855), 5767 (once below 5860) and 5739 (once below 5920) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty rose even after a gap up open and again closed above 5800 and also above 200sma. The daily an...d weekly charts show +ve divergence. If this week closes below 50 sma, which is presently at about 5747, it can cause further fall. Bulls can have hope if this week closes above 5747 and if Friday closes above 200 sma, which is presently at 5830. If Friday closes above 50 sma, which is presently at 5923, it will have bullish tone. Considering that a lot data, particularly the non-farm payroll data, is expected from US on Friday night, oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Likely levels on higher/lower side are about 6000/5951/5875 and about 5825/5756/5675.

3.         Nifty opened up with a big gap thereby filling up previous unfilled gap on the higher side. It made a higher high but could not sustain and reacted to make a higher low before closing -ve but above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met. The daily candle is like a evening star while weekly candle is like a hanging man. Today was also a NR7 day but not for nifty fut.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-04/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (04/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5749, 5690 and 5645 while resistances are at about 5808, 5826 and 5870. The unfilled gap on the lower side is at about 5682. Three +WWs give about 5888 (once above 5845), 5894 (once above 5825) and 5943 (once above 5837) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs give about 5668 (once below 5721) and 5615 (once below 5827) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag gets killed above 6012. A daily bullish flag gets killed below 5700.

Nifty fell even after a gap down open and closed below 5800 and also below 200sma and is clearly bearish. The weekly chart still shows +ve divergence. Bulls have hope only if about 5740 is held. A weekly close below 50 sma, which is presently at about 5747 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of the market. VIX and PCR are still high and can cause sharp volatility. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         If about 5740 is held, likely higher levels in next few days are 5822, 5865, 5919, 6016 and 6080. If about 5740 is broken convincingly, likely lower levels are 5720, 5659 and 5608.

3.         PCR down at 1.09 and VIX up at 18.91. Pre-open suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5794 by afternoon.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5797NF, TARGET 5837, SL 5767.

5.         Target achieved.

6.         Buy triggered again.

7.         Target met again.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and rose sharply to make a higher high. However, it then fell sharply but managed to make a higher low before recovering and closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met twice after chance of an entry came twice.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.