Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/11/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (19/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6165, 6105 and 6090 while resistances are at about 6235, 6290 and 6334. Four +WWs can give about 6241, 6288, 6304 and 6374 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WWs can give about 6131 (once below 6162) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 5880/ 5825/5700. BD of rising wedge/channel can give 6040/5975 if nifty goes and remains below 6125. BO of two falling wedges can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 6150.

Nifty rose sharply in spite of a gap up open and closed just below 6200 giving more hopes to bulls. Daily candle is a big, bullish Marubuzo. A close below 6120 can cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR can to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Based on pre-open range seen on TV, we may see a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6197 by afternoon.

3.         BASED ON NSE DATA, AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6222NF, TARGET 6170, SL 6252.

4.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, made a higher high and low before closing marginally +ve and also above yesterday's close. The total range being only about 32, none of the targets were met. Daily candle is a doji and is like an evening star. Today was also a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/11/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (14/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5921 and 5885 while resistances are at about 6010, 6025, 6110 and 6195. Five +WWs can give about 6011, 6096 (once above 6048), 6121 (once above 6058), 6104/75 (once above 6006) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5952, 5938 and 5909 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6175. BO of two falling wedges can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 6010.

Nifty fell for the 8th day and closed below 6000 and seems very bearish unless there is a sharp pullback. However, a +ve div has appeared on lower TFs. Also, daily candle is like a morning star and inverted hammer, likely reversal signs. To confirm reversal, nifty must close strongly +ve, particularly after a gap up open above 5999. Oil price and/or INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 6037 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6071NF, TARGET 6126, SL 6041.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Targets of first two +WWs met.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap and rose further to make a new high. However, it later reacted to make a higher low before closing mildly +ve but much above yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met. The target of 9.30 strategy was also met but without giving chance of an entry. Daily candle is an inverted hammer while weekly candle is like a hammer.

The week’s chart suggests a recovery after a consistent fall for 8 days.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/11/13

LEADER POST for Monday (18/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6050, 6025 and 5995 while resistances are at about 6069, 6085, 6169 and 6195. Six +WWs can give about 6072, 6080, 6104, 6110, 6137 and 6229 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6036, 5997 and 5952 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6150. BO of two falling wedges can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 5985.

Nifty rose and closed above 6050 bringing some relief to bulls. Daily candle is an inverted hammer but is inconsequential as it not at the end of a trend. Weekly candle is like a hammer and can help continue the reversal. To confirm reversal, nifty must close +ve, particularly after a gap up open above 6057. Oil price and/or INR can to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains above 6112 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6177NF, TARGET 6209, SL 6147.

4.         Targets of first five +WWs met.

5.         Target met.

6.         Nifty opened with a gap, rose further and then remained within a range till about 2 pm before making a sharp upmove. It thus made a higher high and low before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above Friday's close. The targets of first five +WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy. Daily candle is a big, bullish Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/11/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (13/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5990, 5965 and 5905 while resistances are at about 6055, 6075 and 6098. Four +WWs can give about 6095 (once above 6051), 6146 (once above 6054), 6155 (once above 6067) and 6176 (once above 6119) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5947 and 5911 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6170. BO of two falling wedge can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 6040.

Nifty fell for the 7th day and closed below 6050 and seems headed south. However, a +ve div has appeared on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Oil price and/or INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6000 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6044NF, TARGET 5997, SL 6074.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6038NF, target 6087, SL 6008.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target met

7.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and rose slowly till afternoon but could not sustain due to persistent selling pressure. It made a lower high and low than yesterday before closing mildly -ve and also below yesterday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. Nifty then went down and almost hit the SL of reverse trade. The daily candle is like a morning star and an inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/11/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (12/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6065 and 6015 while resistances are at about 6096, 6129, 6190 and 6234. Previous lower level to watch is 6032. Four +WWs can give about 6116/6147 (once above 6070), 6170 (once above 6120) and 6192 (once above 6089) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6052, 5956 and 5922 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6170. BO of two falling wedge can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 6106.

Nifty fell again and closed below 6100 and looks bearish. A close below 6030 may result in a bigger fall. However, a +ve div has appeared on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Oil price and/or INR can continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains below 6087 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6127NF, TARGET 6092, SL 6157.

4.         Target met.

5.         Target of first -ww met.

6.         Target of BD of first rising wedge/channel also met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap but started falling to make a lower high and low than yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also strongly below yesterday's close. The targets of first -ww and that of BD of first rising wedge of the first post were met. Also, target of 9.30 strategy was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/11/13

LEADER POST for Monday (11/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6100, 6079 and 6030 while resistances are at about 6150, 6250 and 6300. Two +WWs can give about 6165 (once above 6121) and 6311 (once above 6200) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 6099 and 6052 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6170. BO of two falling wedges can give 6200/6340 if nifty remains above 6130.

Nifty fell again and closed below 6150 and looks bearish. Weekly candle is an inside bar, which can imply big move on either side. A close below 6079 may result in a bigger fall. Oil price and/or INR can continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 6111 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6130NF, TARGET 6101, SL 6160.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6163NF, target 6193, SL 6133.

5.         SL is hit.

6.         As expected SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Target of first -ww was met in the open itself.

8.         SL hit once again.

9.         SL hit for the fourth time.

10.       Nifty opened down with a gap and made a lower high and low than on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's close. Target of first -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit 4 times on either side but target on neither side was met, though it was once missed on upper side by a narrow margin.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/11/13

LEADER POST for Friday (08/11/13)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at about 6170, 6145, 6120 and 6100 while resistances are at about 6250 and 6283. Three +WWs can give about 6297 (once above 6200) and 6307/26 (once above 6234) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 6172, 6165, 6102 and 6058 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6170. BO of a falling wedge can give 6340 if nifty remains above 6170.

Nifty fell again and closed below 6200 and looks bearish in immediate term. Daily candles are like three black crows, a bearish sign. A close below 6170 may cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 6170 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6208NF, TARGET 6171, SL 6238.

4.         Targets of first two -WWs met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and made a futile attempt to go up only to slide to a lower low. It tried to recover late in the day only to fall again. Finally it closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. Targets of first two-WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy. The weekly candle is like an inside bar.

The week’s chart shows distinct weakness but a reversal cannot be ruled out.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.