Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/01/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (31/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6047, 6037 and 6005 while resistances are at about 6115 and 6142. The previous low level to watch is 5990. Four likely +WWs give about 6082, 6116, 6130 and 6144 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 6010 and 5986 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A Two rising wedges seem to have broken down and can give 5990/40 unless nifty remains above 6139/54. A rising channel break down can give about 5840 once below 6006. A horizontal channel BO/BD can give 6094/6020. A bearish flag can give about 6015 unless killed above 6085.

Nifty managed to close above 6050 again. The daily candle is an inside (doji) bar. Therefore, it's buy above 6065 (or 6072) and sell below 6055 (or 6043). The mild -ve div on daily chart is still worrisome. Nifty is once again in the range 5990-6100. Be careful of high intraday volatility, Thursday being an expiry day. I feel one should avoid trading as long as trend is not clear or trade for February series.

2.         PCR at 1.04 and VIX at 14.38. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open, unless it remains above 6068.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6059NF, TARGET 6022, SL 6089.

4.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and remained flat before reacting later in the day. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of BD of horizontal channel and bearish flag of the first post as well as the target of 9.30 strategy were missed by a few points.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/01/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (30/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6039, 6032, 6022 and 5999 while resistances are at about 6114, 6127, 6135 and 6149. The previous low level to watch is 5990. Five likely +WWs give about 6081 (once above 6050), 6094 (once above 6079), 6101 (once above 6048), 6107 and 6119 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 6043, 6004 and 5995 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges seem to have broken down and can give 5990/40 unless nifty remains above 6134. A rising channel break down can give about 5840 once below 6039 unless nifty remains above 6149. A bearish flag can give about 6014 unless killed above 6087.

Nifty reacted and closed below 6050 again. However, the daily candle is an inverted hammer, which can be a reversal sign. Therefore, nifty should not fall further and should go up to confirm that. The persisting -ve div on daily chart is worrisome. Nifty is once again in the range 5990-6100. Be careful of high intraday volatility as expiry approaches. I feel one should avoid trading as long as trend is not clear or trade for February series.

2.         PCR down at 1.03 and VIX down at 14.47.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6055NF, TARGET 6026, SL 6085.

4.         Target of first -ww met.

5.         Nifty is in a channel. BO gives 6095 and BD gives 6020.

6.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and remained within a range of 20 points throughout the day. The target of only the first -ww of the first post was met. Neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy trade were triggered. The daily candle is an inside bar (doji).

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/01/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (29/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6071, 6053, 6032, 6020 and 5995 while resistances are at about 6082 and 6131. The previous high/low levels to watch are 6101 and 5990. Three likely +WWs give about 6098, 6109 and 6146 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 6059, 6057, 6044 (once below 6067), 6036 and 6017 (once below 6048) (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges seem to have broken down and can give 5990/40 unless nifty goes above 6150. A falling channel has broken out and can give about 6100 unless nifty goes below 5990. A rising channel break down can give about 5840 once below 6018 unless nifty goes up and remains above 6130. A bullish flag can give about 6111 unless killed below 6055.

Nifty closed above 6050 again. However, the daily candle is a doji and an imperfect morning doji star. Therefore, bulls will want Tuesday to open above 6082 and close +ve while bears will want an open below 6074 and close -ve. Nifty is near the top of the range 5990-6100. Be careful of high intraday volatility, particularly due to RBI policy review. I feel one should avoid trading on Tuesday as long as trend is not clear.

2.         PCR 1.12 & VIX 15.17

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6048NF, TARGET 6025/10, SL 6077.40.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6093NF, target 6117/31, SL 6063.60.

5.         SL hit. Buy here as SL is close by but target may not be reached.

6.         Target of reverse trade met with very good profit for those who bought.

7.         Targets of first two -WWs and first two +WWs met.

8.         A -ww gives 6074.

9.         -ww target met.

10.       After giving target, SL of reverse trade also hit.

11.       Target of third -ww met.

12.       Nifty opened down with a small gap and rose sharply after about 90 min to make a new high but then quickly reacted by about 70 points to make a lower than yesterday to close -ve and also below yesterday's close. Due to high volatility on account of RBI policy review, the targets of first two +WWs, first three -WWs, the BO of falling channel and the bullish flag of the first post were met. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was and the target of reverse trade was met. Later SL of reverse trade was also hit. Also, met was target of a -ww identified during the day. The daily candle is an inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/01/13

LEADER POST for Monday (28/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6061, 6031, 6023 and 6018 while resistances are at about 6078, 6091, 6114, 6124, 6132 and 6141. The previous high/low levels to watch are 6101 and 5990/40. Three likely +WWs give about 6087, 6099 and 6118 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Six likely -WWs give about 6060 (once below 6075), 6036 (once below 6059), 6030 (once below 6046), 6016, 6005 and 5985 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges seem to have broken down and can give 5990/40 unless nifty goes up and remains above 6104/6130. A falling channel has broken out and can give about 6100 unless nifty goes below 6015 towards the base of the channel at 5990. A rising channel break down can give about 5840 on...ce below 6018 unless nifty goes up and remains above 6132. A bullish flag can give about 6099 unless killed below 6050.

Nifty rose and again closed above 6050 as hinted in yesterday's thread. The -ve div on daily chart seems to be vanishing. However, the weekly candle is a hanging man, which can be bearish. Bulls will want Monday to open above 6086 and next week to close +ve while bears will want Monday to open below 6074 and next week to close -ve to confirm the bearishness of hanging man. Bearishness may also be confirmed if we see an intraday low below 6021 and a daily/weekly close below 6035/6093 next week. The weekly chart does not have a -ve div. Nifty still remains in the range of 5950-6100. Be careful of high intraday volatility, particularly next week being expiry and avoid trading within the range.

2.         PCR up at 1.12 and VIX up at 14.77. Pre-open high/low at 6082.55/6053.05 and close at 6082.10. This may indicate a +ve nifty after slight gap up open unless nifty remains below 6074 for at least an hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6102NF, TARGET 6126, SL 6072.

4.         If SL is triggered, sell above 6060NF, target 6034/20, SL 6090.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Targets of first +ww and first -ww were missed by 0.35 and 1.55 resp.

7.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

8.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap, made a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing flat. The total range was only about 27 points. Still the targets of first +ww and first -ww were almost met. However, the SLs of both the 9.30 strategy trade and its reverse trade were triggered. The daily candle is a doji and an imperfect morning doji star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/01/13

LEADER POST for Friday (25/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6012, 5982 and 5969 while resistances are at about 6042, 6058, 6067, 6118 and 6123. The previous high/low levels to watch are 6101 and 5990/40. Four likely +WWs give about 6033, 6071, 6089 (once above 6034) and 6103 (once above 6049) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5989, 5966, 5955 and 5948 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges seem to have broken down and can give 5990/40 unless nifty goes up again and remains above 6091/6131. A falling channel break out can give about 6100 once above 6038. Otherwise base of the channel is at 5990. A rising channel break down can give about 5840 once below 6013 unless nifty goes up and remains above 6124. A bearish flag can give about 5998 unless killed below 6034.

Nifty fell again and closed below 6050 thereby giving a bearish sentiment. The -ve div on daily chart is still worrisome. However, a +ve div on intraday chart coupled with the fact that the last 60tf candle is an inverted hammer gives an impression that nifty is at/near bottom and also that it may have attempted a double bottom. Nifty remains in the range of 5950-6100. Be careful of high intraday volatility and avoid trading within the range.

2.         SELL above 6012 NF, target 5983 SL 6042.

3.         If SL is hit, buy below 6043 NF target 6073 SL 6013.

4.         Target of reverse 9.30 strategy trade met.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         Target of second +ww met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, remained flat for a while before rising to make a higher high and low than those yesterday and closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met. But, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and target of reverse trade was met. The weekly candle is a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/01/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (24/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6023, 6013 and 6005 while resistances are at about 6098 and 6120. The previous high of about 6101 is a level to watch. Three likely +WWs give about 6072, 6079, 6093 and 6181 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 6004, 5988, 5978 and 5963 (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges seem to have broken down and can give 5990/40 unless nifty goes and remains above 6100/6118. A falling channel seems to have broken out and can give about 6100 unless nifty goes below 6047 in which case it can go down to 6016. A bullish flag can give about 6097 unless killed below 6038.

Nifty fell again but managed to recover and close above 6050. However, the daily candle is a likely morning doji star. An open above 6055 and close at/above 6065 on Thursday will confirm it and make nifty bullish. The -ve div on daily chart is still worrisome. Nifty is once again in a range of 5950-6100. Three dojis/stars in last four days shows uncertainty in the market. Be careful of high intraday volatility and avoid trading within the range.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 6055.75/6025.50 and close at 6046.20. This may indicate a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it remains above 6065 for at least an hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6054NF, TARGET 6019/04, SL 6084.

4.         Bearish flag gives about 6013.

5.         Bearish flag target met.

6.         9.30 strategy trade target met but without giving chance of an entry.

7.         Sell (as per 9.30 strategy) triggered. But be careful.

8.         9.30 strategy target reached again after giving chance of entry.

9.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap and then reacted making a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve (as indicated by the pre-open data) and also below yesterday's close. In the process, the target of first -ww of the first post was narrowly missed but the target of 9.30 strategy trade was met twice, first without giving a chance for an entry and later, when nifty recovered sharply and gave chance for an entry. The falling channel break out mentioned in the first post proved false and nifty returned to the bottom of the channel. Also met was target of a bearish flag identified during the day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/01/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (23/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6041, 6019, 6012 and 5998 while resistances are at about 6068, 6091 and 6109. The gap created on Friday is at about 6038 and is yet to be filled up. Four likely +WWs give about 6084, 6091, 6119 and 6163 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 6031, 6017, 5996 and 5962 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give 5990. A bearish flag can give about 6022 unless killed above 6056.

Nifty fell and closed again below 6050 after reacting soon after crossing over psychogical level of 6100. The reversal signal given by yesterday's doji star was confirmed and nifty may go to 6025/6015/5980. The -ve div on daily chart is worrisome. However, I feel that bottom is near by. Be careful of high intraday volatility.

2.         PCR at 1.12 and VIX at 13.89. Pre-open high/low at 6120.55/6048.50 and close at 6052.85. The inverted hammer of 10tf candle may indicate a +ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains below 6048 for at least an hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6087NF, TARGET 6114/30, SL 6057.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 6052NF, target 6022, SL 6082.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of first -ww was met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap but reacted immediately. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before rising sharply again in the afternoon to close flat and above yesterday's close. The targets of first -ww and the bearish flag of the first post were met even though nifty went above 6056. But the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and the target of reverse trade was just missed. The daily candle is a likely morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/01/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (22/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6073, 6040 and 5990 while resistances are at about 6092, 6102 and 6184. The gap created on Friday is at about 6038 and is yet to be filled up. Four likely +WWs give about 6092, 6100, 6147 and 6210 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 6058, 6039, 6016 and 6004 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Review of TLs and APFs indicates that unless nifty remains above 6118 for the week, it will go down.

Nifty gained again and closed at a new high once again. However, it could not cross the psychological level of 6100. Though the likely morning star created on Friday was defeated, the daily candle formed a doji star, a possible reversal sign again. Therefore, nifty must open up on Tuesday with a gap above 6086 and also close +ve. If it opens well below below 6085 and closes -ve then reversal may be confirmed. Be careful of high volatility as nifty is at a crucial level and may try to consolidate.

2.         PCR up at 1.17 and VIX at 13.66. Pre-open high/low at 6091.10/6061.70 and close at 6080.15. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate an uncertain and volatile nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6085NF, TARGET 6057, SL 6115.

4.         Targets of first two +WWs were met.

5.         Target of first -ww met.

6.         9.30 strategy target met.

7.         Nifty opened slightly down, made a higher high but then quickly reacted to make a lower low before closing -ve ans also below yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs and first -ww of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade. Today's open below 6085 and the bearish candle confirmed reversal signalled by yesterday's doji star, however temporary.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/01/13

LEADER POST for Monday (21/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6053, 6042, 6024, 5984 and 5935 while resistances are at about 6069, 6090 and 6134. The gap created on Friday is at about 6038 and is yet to be filled up. Three likely +WWs give about 6074, 6135 and 6183 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 6015, 5995, 5974 and 5958 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty is in two rising channels with its top at about 6133 and bottoms at about 6044 and 6024. Their break down can take nifty down to 5940/5840. The medians of APFs are at 6128 and 6008.

Nifty gained again and closed at a new high above 6050, giving bullish sentiment. However, the daily candle is likely to form a morning star, a bearish sign. To defeat it, nifty must open up on Monday with a gap, above 6084, and close +ve. If it opens below 6059 (worse still below 6048) and closes -ve and that too well below 6039 (say, 6020), it will confirm the bearishness of morning star. However, weekly candle is bullish. Be careful of high volatility.

2.         PCR at 1.12 and VIX at 13.89. Pre-open high/low at 6146.90/6064.20 and close at 6085.75. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 6064 for at least one hour.

3.         Target of first +ww met in the open.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6074NF, TARGET 6044/33, SL 6104.

5.         If SL is hit, buy below 6104NF, target 6136, SL 6074.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Nifty opened up with a gap, remained range bound till afternoon before rising to close slightly -ve (nifty fut closed slightly +ve) but above Friday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met in the opening itself. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met. Even then the total range was narrow at about 27 (nifty fut range was 37). The daily candle is a doji star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/01/13

LEADER POST for Friday (18/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6030, 6009, 5975 and 5928 while resistances are at about 6051, 6064, 6079, 6124 and 6133. Two likely +WWs give about 6120 and 6161 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 6010, 5997 and 5940 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty is near the bottom of a small rising channel and a break down below about 6033 can take it to about 5990. Similarly, nifty is in a big rising channel with its top at about 6124 and bottom at about 6000.

Nifty gained again and closed above 6030. However, it is still not bullish unless it closes above 6070. If it breaks down further, 5920/5880 are possible. Be careful of high volatility.

2.         PCR up at 1.11 and VIX at 14.01. Pre-open high/low at 6096.85/6039.20 and close at 6059.85. The inverted hammer of 10tf candle may indicate a -ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains above 6060/70 for at least an hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6059NF, TARGET 6029, SL 6089.

4.         If SL hit, buy below 6090NF, target 6121/27, SL 6060.

5.         SL is hit on tf close basis. Now to see if 5100 is taken out. But be careful of volatility.

6.         Nifty likely forming a DT. If so, a BD will give about 6050.

7.         DT break down target of 6050 met. Looks like it will fill up the gap.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap, made a new high but then reacted to make a higher low before closing slightly +ve (nifty fut closed flat) and also above yesterday's close. However, gap created today was not filled. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met. The target of break down of a DT identified during the day was met. The total range was only about 34. The daily candle is a morning doji star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/01/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (17/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5994, 5978, 5968 and 5921 while resistances are at about 6028, 6075 and 6116. Three likely +WWs give about 6042 (once above 6018), 6044 (once above 6014) and 6107 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5958, 5950 and 5940 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty has broken down from a rising channel and can give about 5940. A bearish flag can give lower level unless killed above 6019.

Nifty reacted and just managed to close above 6000, giving a bearish signal again. However, it is close to a support level of about 6000. If it breaks down further, 5920/5880 are possible. Be careful of high volatility.

2.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6021NF, TARGET 5979, SL 6051.

3.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 14.02.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6028NF, target 6070, SL 5998.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Targets of first two +WWs met.

7.         Target of 9.30 strategy reverse trade met without giving chance of an entry.

8.         Nifty opened flat (though nifty fut opened up with a slight gap), made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and the target of reverse trade was met though without giving chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/01/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (16/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6040, 5961 and 5914 while resistances are at about 6072, 6080 and 6107. Two likely +WWs give about 6087 and 6111 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 6047, 6018 (once below 6031), 6016 (once below 6045), 5976 (once below 6031) and 5953 (once below 6028) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty broke out of a horizontal channel and can give 6090 if it sustains. It is also in two rising channels and is now likely to go to their top, which are presently at about 6105. It should not, however, fall and remain below about 6050 and 5985. Otherwise their BD can give about 5940/5850. A bullish flag can give as much as 6095 unless killed below 6037.

Nifty rose and managed to close at a new high above 6050, giving strong bullish signal. However, it is close to a resistance zone around 6100. Hence some profit booking is expected. Also, daily candle is possibly forming an evening star, a bearish sign. However, it will confirmed only if nifty preferably opens down on Wednesday with a gap (preferably below 6037) and also closes well below 6024 (say about 6000). Be careful of high volatility.

2.         PCR 1.09 and VIX 13.58. 10tf candle of pre-open is an inverted hammer and may indicate a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6050NF, TARGET 6024/11, SL 6080.

4.         Target of first -ww met in the first 5 min.

5.         Target of second -ww met.

6.         Target of third -ww met.

7.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap, made lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process, the targets of first three -WWs of the first post as well as that of 9.30 startegy trade were met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/01/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (15/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6002, 5953, 5929 and 5913 while resistances are at about 6038, 6056 and 6100. Three likely +WWs give about 6046, 6073 and 6082 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5991 (once below 6015), 5969 (once below 6014) and 5966 (once below 6002) (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty seems to have broken out of a horizontal channel and a falling channel and can give 6055/6090 if it sustains. It has also re-entered a rising channel and can give 6100+ if it continues to go up. It should not, however, go and remain below about 6000. A bullish flag can higher levels unless killed below 6010.

Nifty rose and managed to close at a new high. If it goes below about 5925, it may go down further. The overall outlook had turned -ve since there is a -ve div on weekly chart. In days to come, therefore, it should make higher highs and lows before making and remaining above a new high to kill the -ve div and give a bullish signal. It is now near the top of the range 5945-6045 and we can see high volatility.

2.         PCR up at 1.07 and VIX up at 13.70. Pre-open high/low at 6081.45/6024.05 and close at 6037.85. This may indicate a -ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains above 6040 for an hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6045NF, TARGET 6013/5993, SL 6075.

4.         SL hit.

5.         Target of first +ww and bullish flag met.

6.         Falling channel BO target met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, remained flat within a range of about 25 till afternoon before taking off to make a higher high and low than those yesterday and closing +ve and also above yesterday's close at a new high. In the process the target of first +ww, bullish flag and BO of falling channel of the first post were met. Also, the target of second +ww was missed by 5 points. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/01/13

LEADER POST for Monday (14/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5935, 5927 and 5906 while resistances are at about 5971, 5991 and 6066. Two likely +WWs give about 6057 (once above 5950) and 6070 (once above 5958) and 6044 (once above 5958) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty seemed to have broken out of a horizontal channel and can give 6090 if it sustains. But it broke below 5965 for the fourth time and closed below it for the first time, which is not good for bulls. It may, therefore, go down to the bottom of channel, which is at about 5840 unless it reverses again. Also, it seems to have already broken down from a rising channel and can give about 5840 too. At the same time, a falling chanel can give 6055 if it breaks out above about 5990.

Nifty barely managed to close above 5950 after breaching 5965 once again. Unless it goes above 6070, it is not bullish. If it closes below about 5950 on Monday, it may go down further. The overall outlook has turned -ve since there is a -ve div on weekly chart now. In days to come, it should make higher highs and lows before making and remaining above a new high to kill the -ve div and give a bullish signal. It seems to be consolidating between 5945-6045 and we can see high volatility.

2.         PCR is at 1.04 and VIX is at 13.23. Pre-open high/low at 6025.20/5912.45 and close at 5967.20. This may indicate an uncertain nifty. +ve above 5967 and -ve below 5951.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6007NF, TARGET 6033/50, SL 5977.

4.         9.30 strategy target met.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and did not look back. It made a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing +ve and also above Friday's low. However, nifty fut made a new high also. The target of 9.30 strategy trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/01/13

LEADER POST for Friday (11/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5960, 5942 and 5906 while resistances are at about 5979, 6003, 6062 and 6097. Three likely +WWs give about 5986 (once above 5960), 6030 (once above 5954) and 6044 (once above 5958) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5952 and 5927 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty seemed to have broken out of a channel and can give 6090 if it sustains. But it broke 5965 thrice in succession, each time making a new low and also closing at a new low, which is not good for bulls. It may, therefore, go down to the bottom of channel, which is placed at about 5840 unless it reverses for good.

Nifty closed below 5977 again after breaching 5965 once again. Unless it goes above 6070, it is not bullish. If it closes below about 5970 on Friday (weekly close), it may go down further. In days to come, it should make higher highs and lows before making and remaining above a new high to give bullish signal. It seems to be consolidating between 5945-6045 and we can see high volatility.

2.         Nifty is in a DT. A BD may take it down to 5955.

3.         Target of first +ww met in the open itself.

4.         Gap filled up.

5.         A bearish flag can give <5950.

6.         DT breakdown target met. Target of first -ww also met.

7.         9.30 strategy target met.

8.         Target of bearish flag met.

9.         For the third time in a row, nifty opened up with a gap and quickly reacted, making a higher high and a lower low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and first -ww of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade. In addition, targets of a DT break down and a bearish flag identified during the day were met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. It doesn’t contain first 5 min due to website problems.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/01/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (10/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5957, 5951, 5946, 5908 and 5900 while resistances are at about 6012, 6058 and 6082. Three likely +WWs give about 6007 (once above 5983), 6033 (once above 5948, which is yet to be reached) and 6053 (once above 5966) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5953 and 5983 (once below 6025 which is yet to be reached) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty seemed to have broken out of a channel and can give 6090. But if it breaks and remains below 5965 which it has tried twice, it may go down to the bottom of channel, which is placed at about 5840. A bearish flag can give lower level unless killed above 5987.

Nifty closed below 6000 again and also below 5977 after trying to breach 5965 once again. Unless it goes above 6070, it is not bullish. If it convincingly breaks below 5965, it may go down further to at least 5907 and may be much lower. It seems to be consolidating between 5965-6045 and we can see high volatility from now on.

2.         PCR down at 1.0 and VIX at 13.32. Pre-open high/low at 5999.30/5971.50 and close at 5998.80. This may indicatea +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5971 for at least one hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6031NF, TARGET 6063/83, SL 6001.

4.         SL triggered.

5.         Target of first -ww considered met.

6.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but once again reacted to make a lower high and low than those yesterday (nifty fut made a slightly higher low) before closing -ve and also slightly below yesterday's close (nifty fut closed above yesterday's close). The target of first -ww of the first post was met and the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit. The daily candle of nifty fut is an inside bar while that of nifty is just a bearish candle.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/01/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (09/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5991, 5974, 5943, 5919 and 5893 while resistances are at about 6004, 6022, 6053 and 6070. Three likely +WWs give about 6024, 6039 and 6064 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5983, 5871 (once below 5983) and 5797 (once below 5942) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty seemed to have broken out of a channel and can give 6090. But if it breaks and remains below 5965, it may go down to the bottom of channel, which is placed at about 5840. Two bullish flags can give 6010 and more unless killed below 5980.

Nifty closed above 6000 again but unless it goes and remains above 6043 for the week, it is not bullish. If it convincingly breaks below 5965, it may go down further. It seems to be consolidating between 5965-6045 and we can see high volatility from now on.

2.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6016NF, TARGET 5995/79, SL 6046.

3.         If SL hit, buy below 6062NF, target 6085/6100, SL 6032.

4.         SL triggered.

5.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

6.         A bearish flag gives 5974NS unless killed above 6010.

7.         Bearish flag target met. Targets of first -WW of the first post met.

8.         Target of original 9.30 strategy met but after triggering SLs on either side first.

9.         One possibility is that bottom is over.

10.       Nifty opened up with a slight gap, made a higher high than yesterday but then reacted immediately to make a lower low before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of first bullish flag and first -ww of the first post were met in that order but the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit on either side before giving target of original trade. The target of a bearish flag identified during the day was also met. The daily candle is bearish engulfing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/01/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (08/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5981, 5969, 5935 and 5887 while resistances are at about 6000, 6050/55, 6064 and 6077. Two likely +WWs give about 6022 and 6045 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5950 (once below 5978) and 5838 (once below 5959) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty seemed to have broken out of a channel and can give 6090. But if it goes down and breaks below 5965, it may go down to the bottom of channel, which is placed at about 5840.

Nifty closed below 5900 in line with the bearish signal given by Friday's hanging man. The daily candle is also bearish engulfing. However, it has taken support from the lower TL from 27/12 and it is possible that it will remain flat (lower highs and higher lows) for a couple of days before starting its upward journey again. If, however, nifty goes below 5965, it may go doen further.

2.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 13.92. Pre-open high/low at 5991.25/5945.40 and close at 5983.45. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate +ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it remains below 5978 for at least an hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6000NF, TARGET 5970/52, SL 6030.

4.         Since SL is hit, now buy below 6029NF, target 6060, SL 5999.

5.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap and made a lower low than yesterday before rising sharply in the afternoon to close +ve (as indicated by the pre-open data) and also above yesterday's close. However, it could not make a higher high. The total range was about 42. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met. Nifty seems to have held 5965 as of now.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/01/13

LEADER POST for Monday (07/01/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6001, 5988, 5967 and 5922 while resistances are at about 6025, 6034 and 6056. Two likely +WWs give about 6051 and 6120 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Six likely -WWs give about 5996 (once below 6013), 5990, 5982, 5975, 5962 (once below 5999) and 5951 (once below 5976) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Nifty seems to have broken out of a channel and can give 6090. But if it goes down and breaks below 5965, it may go down to the bottom of channel, which is placed at about 5840. A bullish flag gives higher targets unless killed below 5996.

Nifty closed at a new high again, giving bullish sentiment. However, the daily candle is again a hanging man, a likely reversal sign. It again gives an impression that nifty may have formed a top on closing basis. Also, the -ve div still persists on the daily chart. Nifty needs to close above 6017 to negate the effect of the hanging man and remain above for a few days to kill the -ve div. If however, nifty closes below 6016 and that too with a gap down open below 6011, the reversal may be confirmed. However, it should be noted that weekly chart does not show any weakness. It means that the reversal, if any, may be shortlived.

2.         PCR up at 1.05 and VIX at 13.37. Pre-open high/low at 6194.40/6016.15 and close at 6042.15. The inverted hammer of 10tf candle may indicate a -ve nifty unless NS remains above 6042 for at least an hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6040NF, TARGET 6007/5994, SL 6070.

4.         Target of bullish flag met in the open itself.

5.         A bearish flag give 5996.

6.         Targets of first three -WWs met.

7.         5980/77NS is a good support.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap thereby making a new high but immediately reacted, finally making a lower low than yesterday before closing -ve (as indicated by the pre-open data) and also below yesterday's close. The targets of first three -WWs and the bullish flag of the first post were met but that of 9.30 strategy trade was just missed. Target of a bearish flag identified during the day was also met. Nifty has reversed from 5977 as of now. The daily candle is a bearish engulfing one.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.