Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (16/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5722, 5690, 5650 and 5621 while resistances are at about 5795, 5825 and 5840/5860. The 200dma is at about 5852. Five +WWs can give about 5765, 5796, 5821, 5895 and 5907 (once above 5760) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5716 (once below 5752), 5695 (once below 5738), 5689 (once below 5728) and 5657 (once below 5687). Two falling wedges/ channels BO can give about 5805/6045 while two rising channels/wedges can give about 5510/5580 if nifty goes and remains below 5730.

Nifty rose again but closed just below 5750 and we could see higher levels before next reaction sets in. Thursday was a NR4 day while it was a NR7 day for banknifty. However, daily candle is an evening star and nifty will have close higher on Friday with a green candle to nullify its bearish signal. A close below 5690 can cause further fall. INR can play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5706 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5716NF, TARGET 5673, SL 5746.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Targets of all -WWs of the first post met.

6.         Target of BD of one rising channel of the first post met.

7.         Target of BD of second rising wedge of the first post also met.

8.         Nifty opened down with a gap and just tanked, resulting in the biggest fall in two years, thanks to the confusion caused by govt. as regards apparent capital control. The targets of all the -WWs as well as those of the BD of rising channel/wedges of the first post were met. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a huge bearish Marubuzo while the weekly candle is an imperfect inverted hammer.

The week’s chart looks very bearish but the +ve div may result in some recovery next week.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.