Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (22/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6005 and 5979 while resistances are at about 6114 and 6182. Three +WWs can give about 6052, 6076, and 6124 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5971/5949 (once below 6049) and 5981 once below 6014 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty reacted after making a higher high but managed to close above 6000. However, after the initial morning high, it made a lower high and low implying that lower levels are possible. Also, weekly chart shows an imperfect hanging man and a mild -ve div is seen in RSI on daily chart though not at oversold levels. Hence nifty may not fall much. Friday was a NR7 day and big move is expected on Monday. Higher levels look very likely next week. About 6000 seems to be a tight SL for longs but 5970 is probably the last SL in immediate term. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR down at 1.31 and VIX down at 18.13. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6010 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6010NF, TARGET 5983, SL 6040.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6047NF, target 6074, SL 6017.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Two new +WWs give about 6063/68.

7.         Target of first +WW of the first post met.

8.         Target of first +WW above met.

9.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and made a lower low but rose immediately. However, it could not make a higher high. It reacted again before closing +ve and slightly above Friday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met as also that of a +ww identified later in the day. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was narrowly missed by 1.10 points.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.