Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/08/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (29/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5188 and 5155 while resistances are at about 5317, 5410 and 5436. 200 wma is at about 5444. Four +WWs can give about 5361, 5400, 5431 and 5542 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5221 and 5140 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5520 if nifty remains above 5300. A bullish flag can give higher levels unless killed below 5190.

Nifty rallied strongly from day's low and closed well above 5250. The bearish sentiment is still exists. However, +ve div gives hopes a recovery. Also, daily candle is a hammer and imperfect morning star, a likely reversal sign. Weekly resistance is at about 5535. Oil price and INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. Additional tension is the likelihood of a US attack on Syria. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Thursday being an expiry day, trade carefully.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5316 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5323, TARGET 5288, SL 5353.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5332NF, target 5368, SL 5302.

5.         SL was hit.

6.         Target of first +ww of the first post met.

7.         Target of reverse trade met but without giving chance of an entry.

8.         Target of second +ww of the first post met while that of third +ww just missed.

9.         Target of bullish flag of the first post met.

10.       Nifty opened up with a gap, remained flat for about two hours before breaking out to make a higher and low than yesterday. It closed strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs and bullish flag of the first post were met while that of third +ww was narrowly missed. SL of 9.30 strategy was hit after first reaching within 10 points of the target and then target of reverse trade was met but without getting chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (30/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5315, 5290 and 5155 while resistances are at about 5410, 5441, 5477, 5510 and 5565. 200 wma is at about 5446. Three +WWs can give about 5437, 5453 and 5565 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Six -WWs can give about 5365/55 (once below 5403), 5347 (once below 5371), 5284 (once below 5361), 5227 (once below 5329) and 5216 (once below 5316) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5520 if nifty remains above 5300. A rising wedge and a rising channel BD can give 5305/5125 if nifty remains below 5405.

Nifty rallied strongly again and closed just above 5400, giving some hopes to the bulls. The medium term bearish sentiment is still exists. However, +ve div gives hopes a recovery. Weekly resistance is at about 5526. If Friday closes above 5372, weekly candle will be hammer while if it closes above 5557, monthly candle will be a hammer, an extremely rare candle. Oil price and INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. Additional tension is the likelihood of a US attack on Syria. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a flattish open unless it remains above 5408 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5402NF, TARGET 5360, SL 5432.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5397NF, target 5440, SL 5367.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of reverse trade met without getting chance of an entry.

7.         Target of reverse trade met without getting chance of an entry.

8.         Target of second +ww also met.

9.         SL of reverse trade also hit and target of original trade met without getting chance of an entry.

10.       SL hit again.

11.       Target met again but without getting chance of an entry.

12.       Nifty opened flat and rose sharply to make a higher high. But it fell sharply again, made a slightly lower low than morning and then shot up to make a higher high than morning before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy were hit thrice on either side and targets of respective trades were met without getting chance of an entry even once. The weekly candle is once again a hammer, twice in a row, which probably has never occurred before.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/08/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (28/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5425 and 5155 while resistances are at about 5315, 5420 and 5550. Three +WWs can give about 5307, 5357 and 5422 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5520 if nifty remains above 5300. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty closed strongly -ve, as suggested by Monday's NR7 day, and closed below 5300 after a long time, creating a small panic among traders and investors. However, +ve div has appeared again and a mild recovery is possible. Oil price and INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. Additional tension is the likely hood of a US attack on Syria. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5234 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5211NF, TARGET 5179, SL 5241.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5226NF, target 5258, SL 5196.

5.         Target met.

6.         SL hit and target of reverse trade also met without giving chance of an entry.

7.         Target of first +ww of the first post also met.

8.         Earlier in the day, target of bearish flag of the first post was met.

9.         Nifty opened gap down and quickly tanked to make a yearly low. But it suddenly took off after about an hour and rose almost 200 points from the day's low. It still made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve but slightly below yesterday's close. First the target of bearish flag of the first post was met. Then target of 9.30 strategy was met. However, later, SL of the strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met but without giving chance of an entry. Also met was target of first +WW of the first post. Daily candle is a hammer and an imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/08/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (27/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5405 and 5384 while resistances are at about 5522 and 5580. Five +WWs can give about 5495, 5559, 5602, 5631 and 5693 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5407, 5359 and 5328 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A rising wedge can give about 5350 unless nifty goes up again. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty closed -ve but managed to close above 100/200 wma again. However, daily candle is like an imperfect hanging man and though it is not at the top of an uptrend, nifty must close well above 5500 (preferably 5529) with a green candle for a further upmove. Also, Monday was a NR7 day and we may see a big move either way on Tuesday. INR continues to play spoilsport earlier and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. However, a low INR has also become attractive for FIIs and some fresh buying is expected unless it goes above 66. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 5427 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY SELL ABOVE 5406NF, TARGET 5369, SL 5436.

4.         Target of first -ww met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         Targets of all -WWs of the first post met.

7.         Target of BD of rising wedge of the first post met.

8.         Nifty opened gap down and continued to slide, making lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also strongly below yesterday's close. Thus yesterday's NR7 day yielded its effect. Targets of all the three -WWs and that of BD of rising wedge of the first post were met. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (23/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5390, 5360, 5320 and 5298 while resistances are at about 5420, 5455 and 5585. The 100/200 wma are at about 5471/5440. Four +WWs can give about 5442, 5500, 5509 and 5584 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5398, 5381, 5340 and 5320 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty rose sharply and barely managed to close above 5400 again giving some hopes to the bulls. A +ve div persists on all TFs upto daily. However, unless Wednesday's high is crossed, higher levels are unlikely. But a close above 5420 on Friday will give a hammer on weekly, which is a likely reversal sign. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. However, such a low INR has also become attractive for FIIs and some fresh buying is expected unless it goes above 66. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Bulls will pray for a favourable outcome of Jackson Hole statement from US.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5428 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5427NF, TARGET 5379, SL 5457.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5412NF, target 5460, SL 5382.

5.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Target of reverse trade also met but without giving chance of an entry.

8.         Buy trigger level was missed by less than 1 point.

9.         Target of reverse trade met again.

10.       Target of first two -WWs and first +WW of the first post were met.

11.       Nifty opened up with a gap but quickly reacted to fill the gap and make a higher low. Then it shot up to make a higher high before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first two -WWs and first +WW of the first post were met. Also, target of 9.30 strategy was met but without giving chance of an entry. The SL was hit later and target of reverse trade was met twice, first without giving chance of an entry and later after missing buy trigger by less than 1 point. The daily candle is an imperfect hanging man while the weekly candle is a hammer.

The week's chart shows that further recovery is likely.

The intraday and weekly charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/08/13

LEADER POST for Monday (26/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5438 and 5340 while resistances are at about 5485, 5532 and 5600. Three +WWs can give about 5512, 5590 and 5625 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5419, 5397, 5388 and 5326 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A rising wedge can give about 5350 if nifty goes down and remains below 5445. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty rose again and finally closed above 100/200 wma giving some hopes to the bulls. A +ve div persists on all TFs upto daily. Also, weekly candle is a hammer and is a likely reversal sign. However, daily candle is like an imperfect hanging man and though it is not at the top of an uptrend, nifty must close well above 5472 with a green candle for a possible further upmove. INR has played spoilsport earlier and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. However, such a low INR has also become attractive for FIIs and some fresh buying is expected unless it goes above 66. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Recent moves by RBI are likely to help banknifty.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5499 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5476NF, TARGET 5523, SL 5446.

4.         Target of first +ww met.

5.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         SL hit. Now sell above 5490NF, target 5441, SL 5520.

7.         Target of reverse trade was just missed.

8.         Nifty opened gap up, made a higher high but then quickly reacted. It rose again in the afternoon only to fall again. However, it made a higher low than that on Friday before closing -ve but above Friday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met as also that of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry. Later, its SL was hit and target of reverse trade was just missed. The daily candle is an imperfect evening doji star. Monday was also a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/08/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (22/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5250 while resistances are at about 5330, 5420 and 5580. Previous unfilled gap is at about 5238. The 100/200 wma are at about 5469/5440. Five +WWs can give about 5313, 5335, 5374, 5400 and 5472 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A falling wedge BO can give about 5750 if nifty remains above 5300. A bearish flag can give much lower levels unless killed above about 5580.

Nifty crashed again and barely managed to close above 5300. Much lower levels look imminent. Though a +ve div persists on lower TFs, the same on daily charts has vanished. However, today's candle, which is bearish engulfing, can also be considered to be an outside bar, if it is at the end of a downtrend. If so, it is a likely reversal sign, confirmed only if Wednesday's low is not broken and instead the high is broken. INR has played spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short to medium term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Bulls will have to pray for favourable outcome of Wednesday night's FOMC minutes and weekend's Jackson Hole statement from US.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 5483 by afternoon.

3.         Immediate trend up, target 5299NF, SL 5225. Wait for 9.30 data.

4.         Again target met before 9.30. Now to see whether we get a chance of an entry later.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5229NF, TARGET 5299, SL 5199.

6.         Targets of first two +WWs of the first post met.

7.         Targets of third and fourth +WWs of the first post also met.

8.         Nifty opened gap down, rose sharply only to come down again before rising sharply to end at the day's high. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. Targets of four +WWs of the first post were met. Once again target of 9.30 strategy was met before 9.30 without giving chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.