Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (29/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5840 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5935, 6002 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5830, 5750 and 5630. However, it may be noted that 200dma is at about 5852, 26wema is at about 5861 and 50wma is at about 5792. Also, TL joining lows of shoulders of IHnS gives about 5851. Hence and nifty may take support there. Four +WWs can give about 5942 (once above 5888), 5951 (once above 5893), 6010 (once above 5953) and 6022 (once above 5946) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5817 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling wedge break outs can give about 6045/85 if nifty remains above 5878.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap up open and closed below 5900 and is clearly bearish. Also, a mild -ve div is seen on weekly chart. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs and a mild recovery is likely. About 5850 can be the SL for longs while about 6110 the SL for shorts, both SLs being on daily close basis. A break below 5830 can result in lower levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         PCR unchanged at 1.0 and VIX up at 16.78. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it remains above 5870 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5895NF, TARGET 5871, SL 5925.

4.         Target met.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, reacted a bit and then recovered again. However, it fell again in the afternoon to make a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's low. The target of 9.30 strategy trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (26/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5870, 5840 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5935, 6002 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5830, 5750 and 5630. It is to be noted that 50/200 dma are at 5905 and 5851 and nifty may take support there. Three +WWs can give about 5948, 6006 (once above 5956) and 6046 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5889 and 5830 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge break out can give about 6085 if nifty goes above 5927.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap down open and just managed to close above 5900 and is clearly bearish. Also, a mild -ve div is seen on weekly chart. About 5850 can be the SL for longs while about 6110 the SL for shorts. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR crashed to 1.0 and VIX down at 16.72. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5937 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5970NF, TARGET 6000, SL 5940.

4.         If SL is hit sell above 5941NF, target 5910, SL 5971.

5.         (Post by LKL) SL is hitted (sic).

6.         Target of reverse trade met.

7.         Target of first -WW was met around noon.

8.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but that was the end of it. It started sliding and made a lower high and low than those yesterday. It tried to rally late in the day only to retreat again, closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met.

The chart for the week shows further slide possible. However, due to +ve div in lower tf, some recovery is possible.

The intraday and week’s chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (25/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5967, 5917, 5857 and 5820 while resistances are at about 6001, 6046, 6065 and 6093. Two +WWs can give about 5999 and 6070 (once above 6021) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5889 and 5857 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty fell sharply in spite of a gap down open and closed below 6000 and seems to be headed down. The evening star and the "coiled spring" pattern mentioned in Wednesday's thread showed its effect. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. This being an expiry day, trade carefully and book trades quickly.

2.         PCR down at 1.29 and VIX up at 16.91. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5970 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5995NF, TARGET 6025, SL 5965.

4.         SL hit.

5.         Since SL is hit, sell above 5966NF, target 5935, SL 5996.

6.         Bearish flag can give 5924 unless killed above 6010.

7.         Target of reverse trade met.

8.         Target of bearish flag mentioned earlier met.

9.         Nifty again opened down with a gap and kept going down. It made a lower high and low than yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met. Also met was target of a bearish flag posted during the day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (24/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6057, 6030 and 6000 while resistances are at about 6090, 6107, 6157 and 6248. Three +WWs can give about 6094, 6126 and 6200 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6038 (once below 6088), 6010 (once below 6066) and 5985 (once below 6096) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty rose in spite of a gap up open and closed above 6050 and seems to be headed upwards. Also, the mild -ve div seen earlier in RSI on daily chart has vanished. However, daily candle is an evening star and an imperfect inverted hammer, likely bearish signs. Hence, nifty will have to close at a higher high, preferably with a gap up open, to defeat it. Tuesday was a NR7 day. Repeated small range days have formed a "coiled spring" pattern and we could see a blow-out with big moves.

About 6050 seems to be a tight SL for longs but 6000 is the last SL. If 6150 is not crossed on Wednesday, expiry could be below 6100 but, if it is, then we could see 6200+ by expiry. If 6000 is breached, it could fall sharply. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. This being an expiry week, trade carefully and book trades quickly.

2.         PCR at 6 month high at 1.38 and VIX down at 16.72. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains below 6032 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY BUY BELOW 6063NF, TARGET 6092, SL 6033.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 6031NF, target 6001, SL 6061.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of reverse trade met but without giving a chance of an entry.

7.         Targets of first two -WWs of the first post met.

8.         Target of third -WW of the first post also met.

9.         Thanks to RBI's tough action, nifty opened down with a gap and kept sliding. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. Targets of all the three -WWs of the first post were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met, though without giving chance of entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (23/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6000 and 5976 while resistances are at about 6067, 6090, 6129 and 6157. Six +WWs can give about 6053 (once above 6031), 6075 (once above 6048), 6078, 6085 (once above 6022), 6091, and 6123 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5992, 5933 and 5894 (once below 6055) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty rose after a gap down open and managed to close above 6000 again. However, it broke Friday's low twice and made lower high as well. Also, a mild -ve div is seen in RSI on daily chart though not at oversold levels. Hence, nifty may not fall much. About 6000 seems to be a tight SL for longs but 5970 is probably the last SL in immediate term. If 6150 is not crossed latest by Wednesday, expiry could be below 6100. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.32 and VIX down at 17.63. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 6064 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6091NF, TARGET 6123, SL 6061.

4.         Targets of first three +WWs of the first post met.

5.         Target of fourth +WW of the first post met. Target of daily bullish flag of the first post also met.

6.         Target of fifth +WW of the first post met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a gap and made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first five +WWs of the first post were met. However, total range was only about 32 and hence target of 9.30 strategy was not met. It was a NR7 day. Daily candle is an evening star and an imperfect inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (22/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6005 and 5979 while resistances are at about 6114 and 6182. Three +WWs can give about 6052, 6076, and 6124 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5971/5949 (once below 6049) and 5981 once below 6014 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty reacted after making a higher high but managed to close above 6000. However, after the initial morning high, it made a lower high and low implying that lower levels are possible. Also, weekly chart shows an imperfect hanging man and a mild -ve div is seen in RSI on daily chart though not at oversold levels. Hence nifty may not fall much. Friday was a NR7 day and big move is expected on Monday. Higher levels look very likely next week. About 6000 seems to be a tight SL for longs but 5970 is probably the last SL in immediate term. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR down at 1.31 and VIX down at 18.13. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6010 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6010NF, TARGET 5983, SL 6040.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6047NF, target 6074, SL 6017.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Two new +WWs give about 6063/68.

7.         Target of first +WW of the first post met.

8.         Target of first +WW above met.

9.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and made a lower low but rose immediately. However, it could not make a higher high. It reacted again before closing +ve and slightly above Friday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met as also that of a +ww identified later in the day. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was narrowly missed by 1.10 points.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (19/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6005, 5955 and 5935 while resistances are at about 6067, 6110 and 6182. Three +WWs can give about 6070, 6119 and 6188 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 5974/5921/5900 (once below 6050) and 5962 once below 6028 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700. Another smaller bullish flag can give about 6077 unless killed below 6005.

Nifty rose sharply to close above 6000 i.e. at a new high since 30/05 and looks bullish. Also RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much and higher levels look very likely. However, weekly candle is in a danger of becoming a hanging man and hence Friday's close is very important. Also, a break below 5935 will be worrisome but a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up

2.         PCR up at 1.36 and VIX down at 18.27. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain but possibly +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6057 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6034NF, TARGET 6008, SL 6064.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6073NF, target 6099, SL 6043.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, making a higher high. However, it could not sustain and slid down later in the day, still managing to make a higher low than Thursday. The target of first +ww of the first post was narrowly missed. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side due to high volatility but neither side targets were met. Friday was a NR7 day and the weekly candle is an imperfect hanging man.

8.         The whole week’s chart shows bullish tone. However, lower high and lower low made on Friday after the initial morning high may hint at lower levels on Monday. Tight SL for longs seems to be about 6000 but otherwise it is 5970. If SL is not triggered, much higher levels are possible next week and the one after that.

The intraday chart and week’s chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.