Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (18/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5960, 5933 and 5855 while resistances are at about 6040 and 6105. A number of +WWs can give about 5994, 6000, 6028, 6060, 6070 and 6085 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5902, 5870 and 5852 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty closed flat but above 5950 and 50/200 sma. RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much. However, daily candle is doji showing uncertainty, which can be removed by a +ve close well above 5974 on Thursday, preferably after a gap up open. A break below 5880 and a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR down at 1.26 and VIX up at 19.36. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5984 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5998NF, TARGET 6031, SL 5968.

4.         Target of first two +WWs of the first post were met soon after open.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         Target of third +WW of the first post also met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, reacted a bit and remained in a tight range of about 30 points till late in the afternoon. It then rose very sharply in the last 40 min. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. In fact, it made a higher than that on 15/07, its low was above yesterday's close and it closed at a new high since 30/05 but just missed closing above the high of 15/07 by a mere 0.20 points. The targets of first three +WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (17/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5935, 5908 and 5855 while resistances are at about 5975, 6013, 6040 and 6100. Two +WWs can give about 5999 and 6060 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5940, 5853 and 5840 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty recovered after a big gap down open and managed to close above 5950 and remain above 50/200 sma. RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much. A break below 5880 and a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR at 1.28 and VIX at 18.99. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain but possibly +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5972 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6003NF, TARGET 6028, SL 5973.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5964NF, target 5938, SL 5994.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of first -ww of the first post met.

7.         Target of reverse trade met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and remained flat for a while before reacting only to recover later. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing slightly +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. The daily candle is a doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (16/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5990, 5937 and 5882 while resistances are at about 6053, 6087 and 6100. A +WWs can give about 6066 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5994 (once below 6014), 5954 (once below 6019) and 5949 (once below 6026) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty rose again and closed above 6000 at a new high since 30/05 thereby nullifying bearishness hinted by Friday's hanging man. RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much. Intraday breach of 5950 should be taken as alert but a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests an uncertain but possibly -ve nifty closing after a gap down open unless it remains above 5931 by afternoon.

3.         (NF) Open 6032 and low 5844.40. Such weird levels don't tell anything. I will try to post 9.30 strategy if chart data shows moderate levels. Targets of all the three -WWs of the first post met in the open itself.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY BASED ON NS LEVELS, BUY BELOW 5940NS, TARGET 5973, SL 5910.

5.         Nifty opened down with a big gap but quickly started recovering. It made a lower high and low than yesterday (in fact the high was below yesterday's low) before closing +ve but below yesterday's close. The targets of all the three -WWs of the first post were met but that of 9.30 strategy was missed. The daily candle is like a morning star though it is not at the end of a downtrend. However, nifty fut candle is hammer due to freak levels during open.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (15/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5980, 5950, 5939 and 5890 while resistances are at about 6040, 6062 and 6095. Two +WWs can give about 6072 and 6100 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five -WWs can give about 5962 (once below 5986), 5950 (once below 5993), 5931 (once below 5970), 5925 (once below 5960) and 5873 (once below 5950) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A daily bullish flag can give about 6085 unless killed below about 5700.

Nifty closed flattish after a gap up opening but yet closed above 6000, giving strongly bullish signal. But, the daily candle is a hanging man, a bearish sign. However, RSI is not oversold and weekly chart shows bullishness and hence nifty may not fall much. Intraday breach of 5950 should be taken as alert but a weekly close below about 5915 can cause further fall. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5991 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5984NF, TARGET 5960, SL 6014.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6026NF, target 6051, SL 5996.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and remained flat for a while before taking off. It made a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing +ve and also above Friday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (12/07/13)

1.         Due to failure of the chart website, I am unable to post support or resistance levels. Two +WWs can give about 6010 and 6045 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -ww can give 5680 once below 5951 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty rose sharply even after a gap up opening and closed above not just 200 sma but 50 sma as well giving short term bullish tone. A close below about 5870 can start a downward reaction again. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.22 and VIX down at 18.89. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains above 6000 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6027NF, TARGET 5959, SL 6057.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         Once again nifty opened up with a gap but reacted immediately. However, it still made a higher high and low (in fact today's low was higher than yesterday's high too) than those yesterday before closing marginally +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met as also that of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty fut values with 5 min candles is shown below. Also shown below is a nifty spot chart for this week in 5tf.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (11/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5780 and 5695 while resistances are at about 5845, 5871, 5894 and 5943. The unfilled gap on the lower side is at about 5682. Five +WWs can give about 5866/5885 (once above 5839), 5895, 5920 and 5945 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5676 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. Another bearish flag can give about 5770 unless killed above 5845. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty reacted in spite of a gap up opening but managed to close above 5800. However, it closed again below 200 sma indicating highly volatile nature of the market. The trend is still bearish. The daily candle is a bearish engulfing one. A close below about 5760 can cause a big fall. While, if nifty closes above 50 sma (about 5920), it will give hopes to bulls. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR down at 1.13 and VIX up at 19.98. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5894 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5898NF, TARGET 5942, SL 5868.

4.         Targets of first four +WWs of the first post met.

5.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         Target of fifth +ww also met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a big gap and yet didn't look back. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of all the five +WWs of the first post were met as also that of 9.30 strategy but without giving chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty fut values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (10/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5843, 5811 and 5782 while resistances are at about 5898, 5927 and 5988. The unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 5868/5682. Six +WWs can give about 5890, 5898, 5910, 5930, 5943 and 5985 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5803 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A weekly bearish flag can give a much lower level unless it gets killed above about 6012. A daily bullish flag can give a much higher level unless it gets killed below about 5700.

Nifty closed above 5850 and also above 200 sma again, at the least confirming the volatile nature of the market. The trend still appears to be bearish. The daily candle is like an evening star though it is not at the top of an uptrend. Nevertheless, confirmation of its bearish tone will be if nifty closes -ve on Wednesday, particularly after a gap down open. A close below about 5760 can cause a big fall. While, if nifty closes above 50 sma (about 5921), it will give hopes to bulls. Tuesday was a NR7 day and one can expect a big move on Wednesday. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open doji candle indicates an uncertain to +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5869 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5896NF, TARGET 5921, SL 5866.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5859NF, target 5832, SL 5889.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Gap on the upper side filled up.

7.         Target of reverse trade met.

8.         Target of -ww met.

9.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and filled up the upper gap, which was unfilled till yesterday. It then remained in a range of about 25 points before suddenly tanking in the afternoon. It thus made a higher high and lower low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and target of reverse trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.