Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/03/13

LEADER POST for Monday (11/03/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5939, 5910 and 5871. Resistances are at about 5980 and 6060 while previous higher levels to watch are 5971 and 5991. Two unfilled gaps at lower levels are at 5863 and 5784. A likely +WW gives about 5996 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5926 (once below 5958) and 5815 (once below 5885) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag gives higher level unless killed below 5915. A rising channel can give about 5894 in case of a BD below 5943.

Nifty again rose sharply to close just below 5950 and seems headed for higher levels. The daily and weekly candles are bullish Marubuzo while weekly candle is also a bullish engulfing. There is also a +ve div in RSI on weekly chart. In addition, nifty closed above 50 sma on daily chart and above 20 sma on weekly chart. Hence, everything points to much higher levels. However, there is a mild hidden divergence on daily chart and nifty will have to remain above 5972 for some days to kill it. There is a danger of nifty making a double top next week. As such, 5998/6050 on higher side and 5828 on lower side are crucial levels for next week. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 1.15 and VIX up at 13.34. Pre-open data (doji) suggests an uncertain nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5984NF, TARGET 6013, SL 5954.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5953NF, target 5923, SL 5983.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade was also hit.

7.         Nifty opened flat, made a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing slightly -ve and also below Friday's close. The previous high of 5971 on 20/02 was crossed by just 0.20. SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side but neither side targets were met. The total range was about 41. The daily candle is a doji and an imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/03/13

LEADER POST for Friday (08/03/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5859, 5838 and 5825. Resistances are at about 5897 and 6000. An unfilled gap on higher side is 5943 while previous higher levels to watch are 5971 and 5991. Two likely +WWs give about 5913 and 5987 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5785 (once below 5866), 5783 (once below 5824) and 5764 (once below 5804) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag gives much higher levels unless killed below 5833. A rising channel can give about 5830 in case of a BD below 5866.

           Nifty again rose sharply to close above 5850 and seems headed for higher levels. The daily candle is also a bullish Marubuzo. The level of 5879 mentioned in Thursday's thread was almost re...ached and the weekly candle will most probably become a bullish engulfing one. There is already a +ve div in RSI on weekly chart. Also, nifty closed above 20sma and just crossed above 34 ema on daily chart. Hence, everything points to much higher levels. If nifty closes above 5848 on Friday, it will close above 20 sma on weekly chart also.

          However, nifty has reached overbought levels on lower tf and Friday may become the last bullish day for some time to come. Also, 5885 is a resistance of upper TL on weekly chart and there is a danger of nifty making a double top. Therefore, bulls will hope for 5879 being exceeded by a wide margin. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it goes and remains below 5860 for an hour. PCR up at 1.05 and VIX down at 13.07.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5927NF, TARGET 5952, SL 5897.

4.         Target of first +ww met.

5.         Target (of 9.30 strategy trade) met.

6.         Gap at 5943NS filled up.

7.         Nifty opened gap up and once again remained in a small range of about 30 for about 4 hours before making a sharp upmove like yesterday. It made a high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve (as indicated by the pre-open data) and also above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww and the bullish flag of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade. In the process, the gap at 5943 was also filled. The daily and weekly candles are bullish Marubuzo and weekly candle is also bullish engulfing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/03/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (07/03/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5779, 5750, 5719 and 5687. Resistances are at about 5821, 5831, 5843 and 5910. Two unfilled gaps on higher side are at 5855 and 5943. Two likely +WWs give about 5845 and 5908 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5802 (once below 5842, which is yet to be reached), 5796, 5768 and 5702 (once below 5748) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag gives higher levels unless killed below 5775. A rising channel & wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5680/75 unless nifty goes up and remains above 5879.

Nifty again rose to close above 5800 and seems headed for higher levels. However, daily candle is a hammer and a likely morning doji star, a reversal sign. Reversal will be confirmed if nifty closes well below 5784 (preferably around 5755), particularly after a gap down open. The level of 5879 mentioned above is very important since if nifty crosses above it this week, the weekly candle becomes bullish engulfing with +ve div in RSI. 5879/78 is, therefore, line of fight between bulls and bears. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can rescue nifty.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains below 5800. PCR up at 1.0 and VIX at 13.40.

3.         Target of first -ww met.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5810NF, TARGET 5786, SL 5840.

5.         Considering yesterday's likely morning doji star candle, it is better to consider SLs a bit above/below yesterday's high/low of 5850/5813NF for short/long positions. Note that first condition of reversal has been met i.e. nifty opened gap down.

6.         If SL is hit, buy below 5849NF, target 5874, SL 5819.

7.         Even though trend is down, yesterday's low of 5796NS/5813NF is not broken. as of now.

8.         SL hit.

9.         The moment yesterday's high was crossed, it shot up.

10.       Target of first +ww met.

11.       Target of reverse trade of 9.30 strategy met.

12.       The target of bullish flag of the first post was met.

13.       The gap at 5855 mentioned in the first post was filled today.

14.       Nifty opened gap down, remained in a tight range of about 20 points for four hours and then made a decisive and sharp upmove. It thus made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve (as indicated by the pre-open data) and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first -ww and +ww as also that of the bullish flag of the first post were met. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. In addition, the gap at 5855 was filled. The daily candle is a bullish Marubuzo again.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/03/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (06/03/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5769, 5737, 5701 and 5684. Resistances are at about 5801, 5812 and 5910. Two unfilled gaps on higher side are at 5855 and 5943. Three likely +WWs give about 5796, 5846 and 5883 (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5774 (once below 5801, which is yet to be reached), 5754 (once below 5790) and 5714 (once below 5744) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag gives higher levels unless killed below 5756. A rising wedge can give about 5725 in case of a BD if nifty remains below 5782.

Nifty rose sharply to close nearer to 5800. There is a mild +ve div on STS, CCI and RSI on daily chart. Daily candle is a bullish Marubuzo. Bulls will hope that it now closes above 5835 to give first hint of further rise. Bears will hope for a close below 5700 again. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can rescue nifty.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it breaks below 5780.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5844NF, TARGET 5865, SL 5814.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5800NF, target 5777, SL 5830.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of first +ww met in open itself.

7.         SL hit on reverse side also. Back to long as per 9.30 strategy.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap, made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and the bullish flag of the first post were met. However, SLs on either side of 9.30 strategy were hit but targets on neither side were met. The total range was about 33. The daily candle is a hammer as well as a likely morning doji star (daily candle of nifty fut is only a likely morning star).

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/03/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (05/03/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5690, 5683, 5673 and 5653. The nearest gap yet to be filled on lower side is at 5648. Also, 200 sma is at about 5556 and the previous low was 5548 in Nov '12 from where this rally started. Resistances are at about 5715, 5791 and 5809. Two unfilled gaps on higher side are at 5855 and 5943. One likely +WW gives about 5786 (once above 5691) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5668 (once below 5704) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A HnS has broken down and can give about 5550 unless nifty goes up from here and remains above 5970.

Nifty recovered a bit from the lows but could not close above 5700. There is a mild +ve div on STS, CCI and RSI on daily chart. Also, nifty closed at 34 ema on weekly chart. Daily candle is a Doji/hammer. Bulls will hope that bottom is in place while bears will hope for further downside. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can rescue nifty.

2.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5738NF, TARGET 5776, SL 5708.

3.         Target of 9.30 strategy trade met but without giving a chance of an entry.

4.         Target of +ww met.

5.         Nifty opened up with a gap, remained flat for about two hours before making an upmove. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of +ww of the first post was met as also that of 9.30 strategy though without giving a chance of an entry. The daily candle is a bullish Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-04/03/13

LEADER POST for Monday (04/03/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5712, 5701 and 5692. The nearest gap yet to be filled is 5648. Also, 200 sma is at about 5550 and the previous low was 5548 in Nov '12 from where this rally started. Resistances are at about 5743, 5779, 5789, 5823 and 5887. Two likely +WWs give about 5779 (once above 5702) and 5846 (once above 5699) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5692 (once below 5729) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A HnS has broken down and can give about 5550 unless nifty goes up from here and remains above 5970.

Nifty recovered a bit and gave first confirmation of the reversal indicated by Last Engulfing Bottom candle of Thursday. Next confirmation will be if nifty closes above 5835. There is also a mild +ve div on STS and CCI on daily chart. Also, weekly candle did not break below 34 ema as mentioned in Friday's post. However, daily candle is once again a Harami but probably indicates consolidation rather than a complete reversal. Two unfilled gaps on higher side are at 5855 and 5943. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty.

2.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5711NF, TARGET 5675, SL 5741.

3.         Target of -ww was met.

4.         Nifty opened gap down, went down further to make a lower high and low than those on Friday before recovering a bit to close -ve and also below Friday's close. The target of -ww of the first post was met. However, the target of 9.30 strategy trade was missed by 3 points though entry was not possible before that. The daily candle is a long legged Doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. Unfortunately, chart for the first 80 min is not available due to problems with the website.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/03/13

LEADER POST for Friday (01/03/13)

1.         There are no supports nearby but 200 sma is at about 5540 and the previous low was 5548 in Nov '12 from where this rally started. 5540 also happens to be in a zone which has been important since 2010. Resistances are at about 5710, 5724, 5780, 5815 and 5827. The nearest gap yet to be filled is 5648. Three likely +WWs give about 5768 (once above 5720), 5831 (once above 5752) and 5848 (once above 5713) (other +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag can give about 5626 unless killed above about 5730. A HnS has broken down and can give about 5550 unless nifty goes up from here and remains above 5970.

Nifty crashed and closed below 5700 continuing the bearish trend that started from last week. However, there is a mild +ve div on STS and CCI on daily chart and the daily candle can be a Last Engulfing Bottom, which can be a reversal sign. First sign of reversal will be a gap up open on Friday and a close above 5700, preferably with a green candle and then a close above 5835. Also, if there is no more fall on Friday, weekly candle will have taken support from 34 ema. Two unfilled gaps on higher side are at 5855 and 5943. Only global clue and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can save nifty.

2.         Pre-open candle is a doji and indicates an uncertain nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5734NF, TARGET 5762, SL 5704.

4.         SL hit.

5.         Now sell above 5706NF, target 5676 and SL 5736.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit. Back to long.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap (though nifty fut opened down with s small gap) and made a higher low (though nifty fut made a lower low) and lower high than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close (though nifty fut closed flat w.r.t. to yesterday's close). The SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side but none of the targets were met. The daily candle is again a harami.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.