Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (31/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5276/74 and 5240/35. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled if nifty moves further down. Resistances are at about 5320, 5341 and 5350 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5360, 5433 (once above 5363) and 5481 (once above 5354) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). An old -ww gives 5234 (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned). A likely flag with 70 high mast gives higher level unless nullified below about 5297. The falling wedge mentioned yesterday seems to have broken out and may give about 5450 unless it's a false break out.

Nifty recovered after a further fall on Thursday and seems to be in a mood to resume its upward journey. However, there are many ifs and buts. Friday, being the last day of the week, should not have a low below 5250/45 and should close above 5388 to remain bullish. However, 5360-75 is a good resistance zone. Nifty will have to give a break out above that to sustain its upmove for weeks to come. Otherwise, the gap on 3rd August is not far away nor is the "famous" zone since many years 5170-90. A lot of important news events are lined up in next 2 weeks and hence trade carefully.

2.         PCR down to 0.93 and VIX at 16.67. Pre-open high/low at 5315.05/5270.80 and close at 5298.20. The narrow range indicates uncertainty due to important news day. But a small gap down open looks certain.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5301.50NF TARGET 5281/66 SL 5331.50.

4.         Two -WWs give 5282/5240NS.

5.         First -ww target of 5282 met.

‎6.         9.30 strategy's first target considered met although it may go lower!

7.         Nifty opened down once again with a small gap, failed in its attempt to make a higher high than yesterday and then started sliding down to make a new low. It closed -ve and also below previous close. The target of an old -ww stated in the first post was almost met so also the targets of two -WWs identified during the day. The falling wedge break out of Thursday failed again. The first target of 9.30 strategy was also met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (30/08/12)

1.         The support is at about 5271/68 while other previous level to watch is 5270. Also, there is the gap at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled in this down move. Resistances are at about 5295, 5306 and 5312 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5302 (once above 5287), 5325 (once above 5284) and 5337 (once above 5307) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). An old -ww gives 5244. A likely inverted flag gives similar level unless nullified above about 5307. A likely falling wedge may give about 5450 if it breaks out.

Nifty seems to be near its last possible bottom in this downtrend unless it intends to break down for much lower levels. One possibility is that it may fill up the gap mentioned above before recovering or it may start moving up without going there also, after falling a bit from Wednesday's close. Note that it has been falling for 5 straight days. Volatility will be high due to expiry. I won't be surprised by a large range for Thursday considering that expiry days in the last many months have been flat. Nifty will have to give a sharp pullback soon to sustain its upmove for weeks to come.

2.         My guess is 5210 on lower side and 5350 on higher side will be limits on Thursday. Be alert in case of a sudden and huge fall intraday in 5 min., which, if happens, will form the bottom.

3.         PCR at 1.13 and VIX at 16.74.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5262NF TARGET 5240/20 SL 5292.

5.         I feel those short sellers who play for a day or two should cover their shorts today since tmrw may be up. NF is below S3 level and rarely goes to S4 so watch out.

6.         It looks like buying may emerge about 5255NS/5260NF.

7.         I feel NF may go a above 5300 to kill 5300PE buyer!

‎8.         5319NF possible

‎9.         (Post by LLK) "AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY" nifty hits SL 5292.

10.       My apologies to all. I failed to post in today's anxiety that target of reverse buy in case 9.30 strategy SL is hit, is 5319.

11.       Targets of first two +WWs met as also target of inverted flag, both having been mentioned in the first post. If NS made a high of 5342.80 then even the third +ww target met.

12.       Nifty once again opened down with a small gap and continued its downward movement for an hour, making a new low. It then rose a bit but then remained flat till afternoon. However, later, it slowly started moving up and then rose sharply from 3pm, typical of an expiry day. It finally closed +ve and also above yesterday's close, the first such +ve close in a week. The 10tf pre-open candle was a big inverted hammer indicating a possible trend reversal.

During initial fall, the inverted flag stated in the first post gave its target. However, the SL of 'sell' trade given by 9.30 strategy was triggered and target of reverse 'buy' trade was met. Also, the targets of all the three +WWs stated in the first post were met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. However, it is only from 11 am.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (29/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5328, 5321, 5302 and 5298/93 while other previous levels to watch are 5309 and 5294. Resistance is at about 5360 while other previous levels to watch are 5399, 5420 and 5449. A number of likely +WWs give about 5352 (once above 5328), 5387 (once above 5354) and 5418/55 (once above 5369) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). A likely -WW gives about 5310 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A likely inverted flag gives about 5285 unless nullified above 5370. A falling channel mentioned yesterday (with lower limit of 5294 and upper limit of 5315) seems to have broken out and may give about 5398 if it sustains. A likely falling wedge, again mentioned yesterday, also seems to have broken out and may give about 5350/5398/5450 if it sustains.

Nifty now faces a real test having closed below 5340 and a break below 5294 and/or daily close below 5302 will create real concern about immediate future trend. I am still bullish but now cautious. Volatility may continue to be high intraday due to expiry unless a definite trend develops from Wednesday. Nifty will have to give a major breakout this week to sustain its upmove for weeks to come. First sign of strength will be a daily close above Friday's high of 5399.50NS/5414NF in this week. Tuesday's candle is an imperfect hammer and may give trend reversal.

2.         PCR at 1.23 and VIX at 16.35. Pre-open high/low at 5578.45/5319.60 and close at 5343.85. The last time we saw such a high was in July. The pre-open may indicate a +ve trend, perhaps strong too.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5346NF, TARGET 5310/5289 SL 5376.

4.         (9.30 strategy) Target met. (The) ‎-ww target also met.

5.         The rising wedge breakdown stated in Monday's thread gave its target of 5295NS.

6.         Target of inverted flag stated in first post considered met.

7.         Nifty actually opened up with a small gap but that was the end of it. After remaining flat for 2 hours, it started sliding. It broke previous low of 5294 and 5290 stated in the first post and closed below it. However, it did not break 5280, considered by many as last stand for long holders. In the process, it gave targets of 9.30 strategy, the inverted flag and the -ww, the latter two mentioned in the first post. It also gave target of rising wedge breakdown mentioned in Monday's thread.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (28/08/12)

1.         The support is at about 5340 while other previous lows to watch are 5330 and 5294. Resistances are at about 5355, 5363 and 5418. A number of likely +WWs give about 5382 (once above 5349), 5398/5411 (once above 5371), 5422/46 (once above 5357) and 5438 (once above 5363) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). As can be seen smaller +WWs are within larger ones. Two likely -WWs give about 5331/14 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). An inverted flag gives about 5324 unless nullified above 5366. A falling channel (with lower limit of 5341 and upper limit of 5362) gives about 5398 in case it breaks out. A likely falling wedge may give about 5420/5450 if it breaks out.

Nifty now faces a resistance zone of 5347-5339. Break below 5294 and/or daily close below 5339 first and then 5309 will create concern about immediate future trend. In my post in the threads for Thursday and Friday I had said that 78.6% retracement of the last rise is 5302 and that close below 5340 will be worrisome. That view remains. I am personally bullish from Tuesday till then. Volatility may continue to be high intraday due to expiry unless a definite trend develops from Tuesday. Nifty will have to give a major breakout to sustain its upmove. First sign of strength will be a daily close above Friday's high of 5399.50NS/5414NF.

2.         PCR at 1.27 and VIX at 16.47. Pre-open high/low at 5386.45/5328.50 and close at 5348.05. This indicates flat to +ve trend.

3.         ASPER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5343NF, TARGET 5321/05 SL 5373.

4.         First -ww target considered met.

5.         First -ww target considered met.

6.         Nifty opened flat and remained range bound till noon but after that reacted and finally closed -ve and below yesterday's close. It almost made a double bottom with the low of 13th August. In the process, both the targets of -ww were met so also the targets of 9.30 strategy and the inverted flag mentioned in the first post. The slight worry is that it closed below 5340 and, as far as expiry is concerned, tomorrow's market will indicate whether expiry will be above 5400 or below 5300.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/08/12

LEADER POST for Monday (27/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5382, 5368 and and 5349 while other previous lows to watch are 5346/30/09 and 5295. Resistances are at about 5393, 5405 and 5485/90. Three likely +WWs give about 5404, 5433 and 5460 (+WWs with much higher levels are not given) while four likely -WWs give about 5360/36/28/22 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A huge likely bullish flag gives levels in excess of 5600 unless killed below about 5200. A likely rising wedge, which seems to have broken down, may give about 5295.

After three consecutive days, nifty closed below 5400 indicating that it may be a bit tired. While 5480-5500 is a stiff resistance zone, crucial lower levels are 5364/62 and the zone of 5347-5339. The -ve div on rsi on daily chart posted earlier gave its result and I feel nifty may consolidate till a +ve div develops. However, there is consolation for bulls in that there is no such -ve div on any indicator on weekly chart. Volatility will continue to be high intraday due to expiry next week unless a definite trend develops from Tuesday. Monday's open level and subsequent movement of nifty in the week will confirm bearishness signaled by the last week's candle or otherwise. Nifty will have to give a major breakout next week to sustain its upmove.

2.         PCR at 1.30 and VIX at 16.16. Pre-open high/low at 5393.70/5362.75 and close at 5387.85. The 10tf is a long legged doji and may indicate flat but volatile nifty today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5386NF TARGET 5362/45 SL 5416.

4.         I feel NS may find it difficult to cross 5362/64 and if it does then 5339.

5.         An inverted flag gives 5354NS unless killed above 5376.

6.         Inverted flag target met. (9.30 strategy) Target met. If it doesn't recover now then close will be at the lows of the day.

7.         Nifty opened flat and tended to give an impression that the -ve signal given by last week's shooting star may have been negated. But, it kept on sliding slowly and closed -ve and about 36 below Friday's low. Target of the first -ww was met as was that of 9.30 strategy. Fortunately the zone of 5347-5339 held but since it came at the end, it is not clear whether it will hold on Tuesday. An inverted flag identified during the day also gave its target.

The optimists will take solace form (a) nifty did not open gap down, (b) it closed above psychological level of 5350, (c) NF closed above important number of 5353, (d) all indicators are at oversold level and (e) it seems to have made a double bottom with low of 17th August.

The pessimists will simply see that it closed below last week's low.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (24/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5413, 5407, 5392 and and 5365 while other previous lows to watch are about 5346/30/09 and 5295. Resistances are at about 5418, 5434, 5457 and 5464. Two likely +WWs give about 5421 and 5446 (+WWs with much higher levels are not given). A number of likely -WWs give about 5377 (but point 5 is at about 5460), 5349, 5339 and 5327 (once below 5408) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A huge likely bullish flag gives levels in excess of 5600 unless killed below about 5200. An inverted flag gets nullified above about 5425. A likely rising wegde, breaks down, gives about 5295.

Nifty made a new high on Thursday and but could not close at a new high. However, the fact that it once again closed above 5400 indicates bullish tendency albeit a bit tired. But 5480-5500 is a stiff resistance zone. What's more, the -ve div persists on rsi on daily chart and I feel nifty may consolidate till a +ve div develops. Volatility will continue to be high intraday. Friday's move will most likely give indication for next week's trend. In the short term, nifty will have to give a major breakout to sustain its upmove.

2.         PCR at 1.30 and VIX at 16.12. Pre-open high/low at 5415.35/5308.85 and close at 5392.60. This may indicate a flat to mildly -ve nifty today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5395NF TARGET 5371/5351 SL 5425. But I wonder whether NS will go below 5364.

4.         In spite of apparent bearish undercurrent, today's range is only 34 points and market is just 30 down. That shows something is amiss.

5.         Nifty opened down with a gap as expected, remained in a small range of about 38 points (in spite of a bearish undertone) and closed -ve and below yesterday's low. The range being small, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy call was triggered. The fourth support level was not breached but the target of first -ww was met. But as was stated in the morning 5364 was not broken.

Today's candle is, therefore, once again a doji. Also, weekly candle is an inverted hammer but being at the top of an uptrend, it is not a reversal sign. However, being at the top, it is also called by many as a shooting star, which is reversal pattern.

We will have to see whether Monday opens with a gap down and gives a big fall. Unfortunately, since we are talking about weekly candle, it doesn't help till we have seen next week's candle, which is too late considering that it is an expiry week. Personally, I feel nifty may move up from Tuesday and negate the "shooting star".

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (23/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5412/09 and 5385 while other previous lows to watch are about 5346/30/09. Resistance is at 5436-40. A +ww gives much higher level but will be posted once nifty nears such a level. Two likely -WWs have been combined and give about 5332 (once below 5403) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A huge likely bullish flag gives levels in excess of 5600 unless killed below about 5200.

Nifty made a new high on Wednesday and but could not close at a new high. However, the fact that it once again closed above 5400 indicates strong bullish tendency albeit a bit tired. But 5430-40 and 5480-5500 are stiff resistance zones. What's more, the -ve div persists on rsi on daily chart and I feel nifty may consolidate till a +ve div develops. Volatility will continue to be high intraday in this week. Further upmove is likely next week.

2.         PCR sharply up at 1.30 and VIX 16.00. Low vix may suggest that only PEs are not being written predominantly.

3.         Pre-open high/low at 5426.20/5366.85 and close at 5426.15. This is a hammer in 10tf and may indicate a +ve market.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5463NF TARGET 5484 SL 5433. I JUST FEEL SL MAY BE HIT AND THEN UPPER TARGET TOO. If SL is hit, target is 5403/ 5393 NF with SL 5456 but I feel it may not go below 5410/06 or 5397NS.

5.         A -ww gives 5432NS.

‎6.         -ww target revised to 5430NS. Inverted flag gives 5327.

‎7.         -ww target met. Inverted flag target met.

8.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered.

9.         First target of reversed trade of 9.30 strategy met.

10.       As expected, nifty opened up with a small gap, marginally crossed resistance level and went to make a new high as suggested by the pre-open values. Later though it reacted, as European markets went down, to make a lower low than yesterday only to close -ve but above yesterday's close. However, it closed once again above 5400 keeping its bullish bias. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered but the target of reverse trade was met. Targets of a -ww and an inverted flag identified during the day were also met. Today's candle is a doji and hence either way movement possible tmrw.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.