Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (28/08/12)

1.         The support is at about 5340 while other previous lows to watch are 5330 and 5294. Resistances are at about 5355, 5363 and 5418. A number of likely +WWs give about 5382 (once above 5349), 5398/5411 (once above 5371), 5422/46 (once above 5357) and 5438 (once above 5363) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). As can be seen smaller +WWs are within larger ones. Two likely -WWs give about 5331/14 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). An inverted flag gives about 5324 unless nullified above 5366. A falling channel (with lower limit of 5341 and upper limit of 5362) gives about 5398 in case it breaks out. A likely falling wedge may give about 5420/5450 if it breaks out.

Nifty now faces a resistance zone of 5347-5339. Break below 5294 and/or daily close below 5339 first and then 5309 will create concern about immediate future trend. In my post in the threads for Thursday and Friday I had said that 78.6% retracement of the last rise is 5302 and that close below 5340 will be worrisome. That view remains. I am personally bullish from Tuesday till then. Volatility may continue to be high intraday due to expiry unless a definite trend develops from Tuesday. Nifty will have to give a major breakout to sustain its upmove. First sign of strength will be a daily close above Friday's high of 5399.50NS/5414NF.

2.         PCR at 1.27 and VIX at 16.47. Pre-open high/low at 5386.45/5328.50 and close at 5348.05. This indicates flat to +ve trend.

3.         ASPER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5343NF, TARGET 5321/05 SL 5373.

4.         First -ww target considered met.

5.         First -ww target considered met.

6.         Nifty opened flat and remained range bound till noon but after that reacted and finally closed -ve and below yesterday's close. It almost made a double bottom with the low of 13th August. In the process, both the targets of -ww were met so also the targets of 9.30 strategy and the inverted flag mentioned in the first post. The slight worry is that it closed below 5340 and, as far as expiry is concerned, tomorrow's market will indicate whether expiry will be above 5400 or below 5300.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.