Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (30/08/12)

1.         The support is at about 5271/68 while other previous level to watch is 5270. Also, there is the gap at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled in this down move. Resistances are at about 5295, 5306 and 5312 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5302 (once above 5287), 5325 (once above 5284) and 5337 (once above 5307) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). An old -ww gives 5244. A likely inverted flag gives similar level unless nullified above about 5307. A likely falling wedge may give about 5450 if it breaks out.

Nifty seems to be near its last possible bottom in this downtrend unless it intends to break down for much lower levels. One possibility is that it may fill up the gap mentioned above before recovering or it may start moving up without going there also, after falling a bit from Wednesday's close. Note that it has been falling for 5 straight days. Volatility will be high due to expiry. I won't be surprised by a large range for Thursday considering that expiry days in the last many months have been flat. Nifty will have to give a sharp pullback soon to sustain its upmove for weeks to come.

2.         My guess is 5210 on lower side and 5350 on higher side will be limits on Thursday. Be alert in case of a sudden and huge fall intraday in 5 min., which, if happens, will form the bottom.

3.         PCR at 1.13 and VIX at 16.74.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5262NF TARGET 5240/20 SL 5292.

5.         I feel those short sellers who play for a day or two should cover their shorts today since tmrw may be up. NF is below S3 level and rarely goes to S4 so watch out.

6.         It looks like buying may emerge about 5255NS/5260NF.

7.         I feel NF may go a above 5300 to kill 5300PE buyer!

‎8.         5319NF possible

‎9.         (Post by LLK) "AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY" nifty hits SL 5292.

10.       My apologies to all. I failed to post in today's anxiety that target of reverse buy in case 9.30 strategy SL is hit, is 5319.

11.       Targets of first two +WWs met as also target of inverted flag, both having been mentioned in the first post. If NS made a high of 5342.80 then even the third +ww target met.

12.       Nifty once again opened down with a small gap and continued its downward movement for an hour, making a new low. It then rose a bit but then remained flat till afternoon. However, later, it slowly started moving up and then rose sharply from 3pm, typical of an expiry day. It finally closed +ve and also above yesterday's close, the first such +ve close in a week. The 10tf pre-open candle was a big inverted hammer indicating a possible trend reversal.

During initial fall, the inverted flag stated in the first post gave its target. However, the SL of 'sell' trade given by 9.30 strategy was triggered and target of reverse 'buy' trade was met. Also, the targets of all the three +WWs stated in the first post were met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. However, it is only from 11 am.