Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/11/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (19/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6165, 6105 and 6090 while resistances are at about 6235, 6290 and 6334. Four +WWs can give about 6241, 6288, 6304 and 6374 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WWs can give about 6131 (once below 6162) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 5880/ 5825/5700. BD of rising wedge/channel can give 6040/5975 if nifty goes and remains below 6125. BO of two falling wedges can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 6150.

Nifty rose sharply in spite of a gap up open and closed just below 6200 giving more hopes to bulls. Daily candle is a big, bullish Marubuzo. A close below 6120 can cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR can to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Based on pre-open range seen on TV, we may see a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6197 by afternoon.

3.         BASED ON NSE DATA, AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6222NF, TARGET 6170, SL 6252.

4.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, made a higher high and low before closing marginally +ve and also above yesterday's close. The total range being only about 32, none of the targets were met. Daily candle is a doji and is like an evening star. Today was also a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/11/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (14/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5921 and 5885 while resistances are at about 6010, 6025, 6110 and 6195. Five +WWs can give about 6011, 6096 (once above 6048), 6121 (once above 6058), 6104/75 (once above 6006) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5952, 5938 and 5909 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6175. BO of two falling wedges can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 6010.

Nifty fell for the 8th day and closed below 6000 and seems very bearish unless there is a sharp pullback. However, a +ve div has appeared on lower TFs. Also, daily candle is like a morning star and inverted hammer, likely reversal signs. To confirm reversal, nifty must close strongly +ve, particularly after a gap up open above 5999. Oil price and/or INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 6037 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6071NF, TARGET 6126, SL 6041.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Targets of first two +WWs met.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap and rose further to make a new high. However, it later reacted to make a higher low before closing mildly +ve but much above yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met. The target of 9.30 strategy was also met but without giving chance of an entry. Daily candle is an inverted hammer while weekly candle is like a hammer.

The week’s chart suggests a recovery after a consistent fall for 8 days.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/11/13

LEADER POST for Monday (18/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6050, 6025 and 5995 while resistances are at about 6069, 6085, 6169 and 6195. Six +WWs can give about 6072, 6080, 6104, 6110, 6137 and 6229 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6036, 5997 and 5952 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6150. BO of two falling wedges can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 5985.

Nifty rose and closed above 6050 bringing some relief to bulls. Daily candle is an inverted hammer but is inconsequential as it not at the end of a trend. Weekly candle is like a hammer and can help continue the reversal. To confirm reversal, nifty must close +ve, particularly after a gap up open above 6057. Oil price and/or INR can to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains above 6112 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6177NF, TARGET 6209, SL 6147.

4.         Targets of first five +WWs met.

5.         Target met.

6.         Nifty opened with a gap, rose further and then remained within a range till about 2 pm before making a sharp upmove. It thus made a higher high and low before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above Friday's close. The targets of first five +WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy. Daily candle is a big, bullish Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/11/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (13/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5990, 5965 and 5905 while resistances are at about 6055, 6075 and 6098. Four +WWs can give about 6095 (once above 6051), 6146 (once above 6054), 6155 (once above 6067) and 6176 (once above 6119) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5947 and 5911 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6170. BO of two falling wedge can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 6040.

Nifty fell for the 7th day and closed below 6050 and seems headed south. However, a +ve div has appeared on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Oil price and/or INR continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6000 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6044NF, TARGET 5997, SL 6074.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6038NF, target 6087, SL 6008.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target met

7.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and rose slowly till afternoon but could not sustain due to persistent selling pressure. It made a lower high and low than yesterday before closing mildly -ve and also below yesterday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. Nifty then went down and almost hit the SL of reverse trade. The daily candle is like a morning star and an inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/11/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (12/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6065 and 6015 while resistances are at about 6096, 6129, 6190 and 6234. Previous lower level to watch is 6032. Four +WWs can give about 6116/6147 (once above 6070), 6170 (once above 6120) and 6192 (once above 6089) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6052, 5956 and 5922 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6170. BO of two falling wedge can give about 6280/6340 if nifty remains above 6106.

Nifty fell again and closed below 6100 and looks bearish. A close below 6030 may result in a bigger fall. However, a +ve div has appeared on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Oil price and/or INR can continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains below 6087 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6127NF, TARGET 6092, SL 6157.

4.         Target met.

5.         Target of first -ww met.

6.         Target of BD of first rising wedge/channel also met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap but started falling to make a lower high and low than yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also strongly below yesterday's close. The targets of first -ww and that of BD of first rising wedge of the first post were met. Also, target of 9.30 strategy was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/11/13

LEADER POST for Monday (11/11/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6100, 6079 and 6030 while resistances are at about 6150, 6250 and 6300. Two +WWs can give about 6165 (once above 6121) and 6311 (once above 6200) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 6099 and 6052 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6170. BO of two falling wedges can give 6200/6340 if nifty remains above 6130.

Nifty fell again and closed below 6150 and looks bearish. Weekly candle is an inside bar, which can imply big move on either side. A close below 6079 may result in a bigger fall. Oil price and/or INR can continue to play spoilsport and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 6111 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6130NF, TARGET 6101, SL 6160.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6163NF, target 6193, SL 6133.

5.         SL is hit.

6.         As expected SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Target of first -ww was met in the open itself.

8.         SL hit once again.

9.         SL hit for the fourth time.

10.       Nifty opened down with a gap and made a lower high and low than on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's close. Target of first -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit 4 times on either side but target on neither side was met, though it was once missed on upper side by a narrow margin.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/11/13

LEADER POST for Friday (08/11/13)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at about 6170, 6145, 6120 and 6100 while resistances are at about 6250 and 6283. Three +WWs can give about 6297 (once above 6200) and 6307/26 (once above 6234) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 6172, 6165, 6102 and 6058 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6170. BO of a falling wedge can give 6340 if nifty remains above 6170.

Nifty fell again and closed below 6200 and looks bearish in immediate term. Daily candles are like three black crows, a bearish sign. A close below 6170 may cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 6170 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6208NF, TARGET 6171, SL 6238.

4.         Targets of first two -WWs met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and made a futile attempt to go up only to slide to a lower low. It tried to recover late in the day only to fall again. Finally it closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. Targets of first two-WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy. The weekly candle is like an inside bar.

The week’s chart shows distinct weakness but a reversal cannot be ruled out.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/11/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (07/11/13)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at about 6197, 6170 and 6145 while resistances are at about 6231, 6250, 6265 and 6290. Three +WWs can give about 6250 (once above 6216), 6280 (once above 6236) and 6350 (once above 6240) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 6197, 6181, 6100 and 6060 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes below 6175. BO of a falling wedge can give 6340 if nifty remains above 6231. A bullish flag can give higher targets unless killed below 6180.

Nifty fell but managed to close above 6200 and looks bearish in immediate term as it may be tiring out and may take a breather for consolidation. A close below 6190 may cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6228 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6262NF, TARGET 6218, SL 6292.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6267NF, target 6312, SL 6337.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Targets of first two +WWs met.

7.         Target of reverse trade met without giving chance of an entry.

8.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

9.         Targets of first two -WWs also met.

10.       Nifty opened up with a slight gap, remained flat till 11 am even as it made a lower low before shooting up to make a higher high. It then collapsed again to close -ve and also below yesterday's close. Due to whipsaws, targets of first two +WWs and first two -WWs of the first post were met. SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade met but without giving chance of an entry. Later SL of reverse trade was also hit but target of original trade was missed by about 3 points. Daily candles look like three black crows.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/11/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (06/11/13)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at about 6230 and 6200 while resistances are at about 6276, 6299 and 6365. Previous all time high level is at about 6357. Two +WWs can give about 6297 (once above 6263), 6320 (once above 6244) and 6355 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6223, 6190 and 6062 (once below 6298) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes below 6175. A bullish flag can give higher targets unless killed below 6180.

Nifty fell but managed to close above 6250 and looks bearish in immediate term as it may be tiring out and may take a breather for consolidation. A breach below 6230 may cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6304NF, TARGET 6257, SL 6334.

3.         Target met.

4.         Target of first -ww was met.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but quickly reacted to make a lower high and low than yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. Target of first -ww of the first post was met. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/11/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (05/11/13)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at about 6300, 6275, 6255, 6215 and 6189 while resistances are at about 6330, 6354 and 6380. Previous all time high level is at about 6357. Two +WWs can give about 6355 and 6410 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 6285 (once below 6322), 6242/27 (once below 6278) and 6065 (once below 6297) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes below 6175. Two bullish flags can give higher targets unless killed below 6269 and 6170.

Nifty rose again to give an all time high daily and weekly close and appears headed further North. At the same time, it may be tiring out and may take a breather for consolidation. A breach below 6270 may cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains above 6283 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6320NF, TARGET 6287, SL 6350.

4.         Target met.

5.         Targets of first two -WWs met.

6.         SL hit after giving target. Since SL is hit, buy below 6350NF, target 6382, SL 6320.

7.         Nifty opened down with a gap and made a lower high and low than those on Sunday before closing -ve and also below Sunday's close. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met. Also, met was target of 9.30 strategy. Later, its SL was triggered but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/11/13

LEADER POST for Friday (01/11/13)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at about 6288, 6275, 6262, 6247, 6230 and 6140 while resistance is at about 6330. Previous all time high level is at about 6357 while all time high daily close is at about 6312. A +WW can give about 6345 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five -WWs can give about 6241 (once below 6276), 6230 (once below 6274), 6207 (once below 6254), 6106 (once below 6257) and 6070 (once below 6257) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes below 6140. Two bullish flags can give higher targets unless killed below 6269 and 6170.

Nifty rose again in spite of a gap down open and closed just above 6300 and appears headed further North. At the same time, it may be tiring out and may take a breather for consolidation. A weekly close below about 6180 may cause a fall. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6289 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6301NF, TARGET 6362, SL 6271.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, made a higher high and low than yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met without getting chance of an entry. However, total range was only about 46 points. Friday was a NR7 day. Nifty also gave the highest daily and weekly close since Nov'10.

The week’s chart suggests that further rise is likely but nifty may be tiring out and may take a breather for consolidation.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/10/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (31/10/13)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at about 6234, 6210, 6192, 6160, 6135 and 6115 while resistances are closely spaced at about 6275, 6295, 6310 and 6330. Two +WWs can give about 6304 and 6335 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6237 (once below 6271), 6213 (once below 6254) and 6194 (once below 6226) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes down again. A bullish flag can give higher levels unless killed below 6150.

Nifty rose again to close above 6250 at a new high since 10/11/10 and promises higher levels. However, daily candle is an evening star and nifty will have to close +ve, particularly with a gap up open to defeat its bearish implication. There is also a slight -ve div on daily chart. If nifty closes above 6285, it may head towards an all time high. If it closes below 6130, it may fall much more. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. FOMC data from US will have its effect on Friday. Trade carefully, this being an expiry day.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 6237 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6250NF, TARGET 6284, SL 6220.

4.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

October month’s chart suggests that further rise is likely but nifty may be tiring out and may take a breather for consolidation.

The intraday and month’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/10/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (30/10/13)

1.         Supports are closely spaced at about 6190, 6165, 6150, 6135 and 6110 while resistances are closely spaced at about 6285, 6310 and 6322. Three +WWs can give about 6240, 6250 and 6265 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6201, 6182 and 5972 (once below 6166 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes down again. A falling wedge can give 6250 if nifty continues to go up.

Nifty rose strongly to close above 6200 at a new high since 10/11/10 and promises higher levels. If nifty closes above 6285, it may head towards an all time high. If it closes below 6130, it may fall much more. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Trade carefully, this being expiry week.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6230 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY SELL ABOVE 6228NF, TARGET 6198, SL 6258.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6261NF, target 6292, SL 6231.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         Target of BO of falling wedge also met.

7.         SL hit.

8.         Target of second +ww also met.

9.         Target of third +ww also met.

10.       Nifty opened up with a small gap and remained flat till afternoon when it made a sharp upmove, only to be curtailed a bit near EOD. It made a higher high and low than yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of all the three +WWs as well as that of BO of a falling wedge of the first post were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is an evening star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/10/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (29/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6072 and 6030 while resistances are closely spaced at about 6106/25/40, 6170 and 6285. Four +WWs can give about 6163/6183/6195/6203 (once above 6125) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 6084, 6071, 6022 and 5981 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6070. Two falling wedges can give 6145/6165/6220/6250 in case of a break out above 6125.

Nifty fell again and closed just above 6100 and is probably headed down further. However, a +ve div has appeared on lower tf. If nifty takes out 6280, it may head towards an all time high. If it closes below 6030, it may fall much more. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still moderately high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Trade carefully, this being expiry week.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains below 6107 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6090NF, TARGET 6145, SL 6060.

4.         Target of first -ww met.

5.         Target met.

6.         Target of first +ww met.

7.         Target of BO of first two falling wedges met.

8.         Target of second, third and fourth +WWs also met.

9.         Target of BO of third falling wedge met.

10.       Nifty opened up with a slight gap but fell a bit to make a lower low. However, it rose sharply after RBI policy to make a higher high before closing strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. In fact, it closed at a new high since 10/11/10. The targets of first -ww and all the four +WWs as well as those of BO of first three falling wedges of the first post were met. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/10/13

LEADER POST for Monday (28/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6125 and 6084 while resistances are at about 616 and 6278. Four +WWs can give about 6180/6187/6192 (once above 6130) and 6246 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 6032 and 5991 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty remains below 6171. Two falling wedges can give 6220/6250 in case of a break out above 6161.

Nifty closed below 6200 again and is at a crucial stage. A -ve div is seen on daily and weekly charts. The daily candle is a doji showing uncertainty. However, a +ve div has appeared on lower tf. If nifty takes out 6280, it may head towards an all time high. If it closes below 6030, it may fall much more. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still moderately high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Trade carefully, this being expiry week.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains below 6155 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6152NF, TARGET 6123, SL 6182.

4.         Target met.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but reacted soon and kept going down till EOD. It made a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/10/13

LEADER POST for Friday (25/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6144, 6110, 6075 and 6049 while resistances are at about 6178, 6215, 6269 and 6312. Two +WWs can give about 6232 (once above 6140) and 6295 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 6095 (once below 6150), 6066 (once below 6182), 6031 (once below 6221) and 5990 (once below 6162) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes and remains below 6144.

Nifty reacted sharply after a new 3 year high to close below 6200 again and seems to be heading south. A -ve div is seen on daily and weekly charts. The daily candle is a (gravestone) doji and an inverted hammer, likely reversal signs. To defeat them, nifty must close +ve, preferably above 6205 and particularly with a gap up open. If nifty takes out 6280, it may head towards an all time high. If it closes below 6130 and then 6030, it may fall much more. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still moderately high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 6154 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6137 NF, TARGET 6106, SL 6167.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6167NF, target 6198, SL 6137.

5.         SL hit.

6.         VIX is still high and we will see whipsaws.

7.         SL hit on reverse side also.

8.         SL hit again.

9.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and made lower high and low than yesterday. It closed marginally -ve and also below yesterday's close. Though the total range was <50 points, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit thrice on either side and neither side target was met. Daily candle is a doji.

The week’s chart suggests that further fall is likely.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/10/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (24/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6126, 6075 and 6044 while resistances are at about 6235 and 6275. Four +WWs can give about 6209, 6235, 6255 and 6280 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 6098 (once below 6142) and 6002 (once below 6162) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes and remains below 6172. A bullish flag can give 6200+ unless killed below 6140.

Nifty reacted to close below 6200 and seems to be tiring out. The daily candle is a hanging man, a likely reversal sign. To defeat it, nifty will have to close +ve, particularly with a gap up open. A slight -ve div is seen on daily chart. If nifty goes above the 52 week high of 6230 and then 6280, it may head towards an all time high. If it closes below 6130 and then 6030, it may fall much more. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still moderately high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6163 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6166, TARGET 6227, SL 6136.

4.         Target met without getting a chance to enter.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         Target of second +ww also met.

7.         Target of bullish flag of the first post met.

8.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap but immediately soared to make a new high since 11/11/10. However, it then reacted sharply to make a higher low than yesterday. Targets of first two +WWs and the bullish flag of the first post were met. Target of 9.30 strategy was also met but without getting chance of an entry. The daily candle is a (gravestone) doji as well as an inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/10/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (23/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6187, 6160, 6135, 6116 and 6075 while resistances are at about 6222,6270 and 6320. Five +WWs can give about 6215, 6230, 6250, 6275 and 6347 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 6167 (once below 6221), 6140/19 (once below 6210) and 6008 (once below 6162) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/5825/5700 if nifty goes and remains below6140. BD of another rising wedge can give 6130 unless nifty continues to go up.

Nifty closed flat but above 6200 and seems to be tiring out. The daily candle is a doji, a likely reversal sign. Also, a slight -ve div is seen on daily chart. Tuesday was also a NR7 day on the back of a NR4 day implying a possible big move on either side on Wednesday. If nifty goes above the 52 week high of 6230 and then 6280, it may head towards an all time high. If it goes below 6130 and then 6030, it may fall much more. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still moderately high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains below 6209 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6220NF, TARGET 6184, SL 6250.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Target of first -ww met.

6.         Target of second -ww also met.

7.         Target of 6130 of BD of a rising wedge met.

8.         Target of third -ww also met.

9.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap and just fell. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday. It rose late in the day but closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and the first three -WWs as well as that of BD of a rising wedge of the first post were met. The target of 9.30 strategy was also met but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/10/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (22/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6175, 6130, 6086 and 6034 while resistances are at about 6260 and 6320. Three +WWs can give about 6226, 6246 and 6270 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6135/05 (once below 6189) and 6012 (once below 6160) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of two rising wedges can give about 6130/6030 unless nifty continues to go up. A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 6186.

Nifty closed flat but above 6200. The daily candle is a hanging man and an evening star, likely bearish signs. Monday was also a NR4 day implying a larger range for Tuesday. Nifty must close +ve, preferably after a gap up open to defeat it. If nifty goes above the 52 week high of 6230 and then 6280, it may head towards an all time high. If it goes below 6130 and then 6030, it may fall much more. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still moderately high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 6193 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6224NF, TARGET 6256, SL 6194.

4.         Nifty opened down with a gap but rose to make a higher high. It then fell but did not make a lower low. Finally it closed mildly +ve but slightly below yesterday's close. The total range was very narrow at about 39 points and hence none of the targets were met. Daily candle is a doji and Tuesday was a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/10/13

LEADER POST for Monday (21/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6130 and 6070 while resistances are at about 6245 and 6295. Three +WWs can give about 6234, 6285 and 6345 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 6132 (once below 6169) and 6022 (once below 6160) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a rising wedge can give about 6130 unless nifty continues to go up.

Nifty rose sharply in spite of a gap up opening and closed just below 6200. The -ve div noticed on daily and weekly charts has vanished and nifty seems destined to go up further. If nifty goes above the 52 week high of 6230 and then 6280, it may head towards an all time high. If it goes below 6070, it may fall further. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still moderately high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6202 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6205NF, TARGET 6173, SL 6235.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6234NF, target 6266, SL 6204.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL hit on reverse side also. Back to short trade.

7.         SL triggered again.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and made a higher high. It then reacted to make a higher low than those on Friday before rising sharply in the last one hour to close flat but above Friday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit three times but target on neither side was met. Daily candle is a hanging man and also an evening star. Today was a NR4 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/10/13

LEADER POST for Friday (18/10/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6027, 6000 and 5975 while resistances are at about 6145, 6170 and 6195. Five +WWs can give about 6079, 6105, 6127, 6145 and 6160 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6016, 5983 and 5957 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a rising wedge can give about 5920/5880 if nifty goes and remains below 6025.

Nifty fell and closed below 6050 and may fall a bit more. A slight -ve div has appeared on daily chart. Weekly chart is also on the verge of showing bearish sign unless nifty goes up again. However, +ve div has appeared on lower TFs. If nifty goes above the 52 week high of 6230, it may head towards an all time high. If it closes below 5980, it may fall further. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX is still high and can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 6070 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6094NF, TARGET 6136, SL 6064.

4.         Targets of first two +WWs met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met without getting chance of an entry.

6.         Target of third +ww also met.

7.         Target of fourth +ww also met.

8.         Target of fifth and last +ww of the first post was also met.

9.         Nifty opened up with a gap and didn't look back. It kept rising to make a new high since 21/5 (sensex made a new 3 year high) and closed at a new high since 11/11/10. It also gave a highest weekly close since 5/11/10. Targets of all the five +WWs of the first post were met. Target of 9.30 strategy was also met but without getting chance of an entry. Daily candle is a strong, bullish Marubuzo.

The week’s chart shows further upside possible, albeit with some hiccups.

The intraday and week’s chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.