Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/08/12

LEADER POST for Monday (13/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5317, 5308, 5302 and 5280 while resistances are at 5327-30, 5380 and 5454. Four likely +WWs give about 5347, 5372, 5380 and 5400 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5308 and 5275/70 (once below 5300) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). However, nifty closed at the bottom of the channel that has formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) whose top is 5454. Also, a likely bullish flag gives 5346 and an apparent falling wedge formed in the last few days seems to have broken out giving about 5376.

Nifty is now at a crucial junction for a make or break situation. As long as it does not cross 5260 on daily basis, I feel uptrend is intact. The shape of things to come may be known from how nifty closes on Monday i.e. above 5350 (with a possible gap up open above 5320) or below 5295 (with a possible gap down open below 5308). Remember that liquidity flow is strong. Best to trade cautiously with good SLs.

2.         PCR up at 1.17 and VIX 16.07. Pre-open high/low at 5320.40/5163.95 and close at 5316.35. This may indicate a flat to +ve trend.

3.         Immediate trend is down with target 5298NF and SL 5344. Wait for 9.30 call.

4.         Trend reversed but wait for9.30.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5360NF, TARGET 5378/94 SL 5330.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered. as mentioned earlier target now 5297/88 SL 5344.

7.         Unless NS breaks above 5330, nifty may remain flat.

8.         (SL of reverse trade triggered again and trend is up again) second target revised to 5388NF from 5394.

9.         Waiting for +ww target of 5350NS but wonder whether it will come today. Flag target mentioned in first post met.

10.       First +ww target met.

11.       First target of 9.30 strategy considered met as NF made a high of 5377.70

12.       Nifty opened almost flat and remained flat to -ve till 1.40pm before starting its sharp rise. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met. But the second support level of 5308 held while the first resistance area of 5327-30 was easily taken out. It thus not only closed +ve (as was indicated after pre-open) but also above Friday's close.

In the process, the targets of first +ww and of flag mentioned in the first post were also met. Ironically, the SL of 9.30 strategy buy call was triggered first then SL of reverse sell trade was triggered and then target of first buy call was met.

More importantly, though it did not close above psychologically important (to many) level of 5350, it closed at its highest since 3rd April thereby indicating a bullish undercurrent. It should now take out 5369 and 5378 to continue its upward march.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.