Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (30/08/12)

1.         The support is at about 5271/68 while other previous level to watch is 5270. Also, there is the gap at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled in this down move. Resistances are at about 5295, 5306 and 5312 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5302 (once above 5287), 5325 (once above 5284) and 5337 (once above 5307) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). An old -ww gives 5244. A likely inverted flag gives similar level unless nullified above about 5307. A likely falling wedge may give about 5450 if it breaks out.

Nifty seems to be near its last possible bottom in this downtrend unless it intends to break down for much lower levels. One possibility is that it may fill up the gap mentioned above before recovering or it may start moving up without going there also, after falling a bit from Wednesday's close. Note that it has been falling for 5 straight days. Volatility will be high due to expiry. I won't be surprised by a large range for Thursday considering that expiry days in the last many months have been flat. Nifty will have to give a sharp pullback soon to sustain its upmove for weeks to come.

2.         My guess is 5210 on lower side and 5350 on higher side will be limits on Thursday. Be alert in case of a sudden and huge fall intraday in 5 min., which, if happens, will form the bottom.

3.         PCR at 1.13 and VIX at 16.74.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5262NF TARGET 5240/20 SL 5292.

5.         I feel those short sellers who play for a day or two should cover their shorts today since tmrw may be up. NF is below S3 level and rarely goes to S4 so watch out.

6.         It looks like buying may emerge about 5255NS/5260NF.

7.         I feel NF may go a above 5300 to kill 5300PE buyer!

‎8.         5319NF possible

‎9.         (Post by LLK) "AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY" nifty hits SL 5292.

10.       My apologies to all. I failed to post in today's anxiety that target of reverse buy in case 9.30 strategy SL is hit, is 5319.

11.       Targets of first two +WWs met as also target of inverted flag, both having been mentioned in the first post. If NS made a high of 5342.80 then even the third +ww target met.

12.       Nifty once again opened down with a small gap and continued its downward movement for an hour, making a new low. It then rose a bit but then remained flat till afternoon. However, later, it slowly started moving up and then rose sharply from 3pm, typical of an expiry day. It finally closed +ve and also above yesterday's close, the first such +ve close in a week. The 10tf pre-open candle was a big inverted hammer indicating a possible trend reversal.

During initial fall, the inverted flag stated in the first post gave its target. However, the SL of 'sell' trade given by 9.30 strategy was triggered and target of reverse 'buy' trade was met. Also, the targets of all the three +WWs stated in the first post were met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. However, it is only from 11 am.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (29/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5328, 5321, 5302 and 5298/93 while other previous levels to watch are 5309 and 5294. Resistance is at about 5360 while other previous levels to watch are 5399, 5420 and 5449. A number of likely +WWs give about 5352 (once above 5328), 5387 (once above 5354) and 5418/55 (once above 5369) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). A likely -WW gives about 5310 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A likely inverted flag gives about 5285 unless nullified above 5370. A falling channel mentioned yesterday (with lower limit of 5294 and upper limit of 5315) seems to have broken out and may give about 5398 if it sustains. A likely falling wedge, again mentioned yesterday, also seems to have broken out and may give about 5350/5398/5450 if it sustains.

Nifty now faces a real test having closed below 5340 and a break below 5294 and/or daily close below 5302 will create real concern about immediate future trend. I am still bullish but now cautious. Volatility may continue to be high intraday due to expiry unless a definite trend develops from Wednesday. Nifty will have to give a major breakout this week to sustain its upmove for weeks to come. First sign of strength will be a daily close above Friday's high of 5399.50NS/5414NF in this week. Tuesday's candle is an imperfect hammer and may give trend reversal.

2.         PCR at 1.23 and VIX at 16.35. Pre-open high/low at 5578.45/5319.60 and close at 5343.85. The last time we saw such a high was in July. The pre-open may indicate a +ve trend, perhaps strong too.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5346NF, TARGET 5310/5289 SL 5376.

4.         (9.30 strategy) Target met. (The) ‎-ww target also met.

5.         The rising wedge breakdown stated in Monday's thread gave its target of 5295NS.

6.         Target of inverted flag stated in first post considered met.

7.         Nifty actually opened up with a small gap but that was the end of it. After remaining flat for 2 hours, it started sliding. It broke previous low of 5294 and 5290 stated in the first post and closed below it. However, it did not break 5280, considered by many as last stand for long holders. In the process, it gave targets of 9.30 strategy, the inverted flag and the -ww, the latter two mentioned in the first post. It also gave target of rising wedge breakdown mentioned in Monday's thread.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (28/08/12)

1.         The support is at about 5340 while other previous lows to watch are 5330 and 5294. Resistances are at about 5355, 5363 and 5418. A number of likely +WWs give about 5382 (once above 5349), 5398/5411 (once above 5371), 5422/46 (once above 5357) and 5438 (once above 5363) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). As can be seen smaller +WWs are within larger ones. Two likely -WWs give about 5331/14 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). An inverted flag gives about 5324 unless nullified above 5366. A falling channel (with lower limit of 5341 and upper limit of 5362) gives about 5398 in case it breaks out. A likely falling wedge may give about 5420/5450 if it breaks out.

Nifty now faces a resistance zone of 5347-5339. Break below 5294 and/or daily close below 5339 first and then 5309 will create concern about immediate future trend. In my post in the threads for Thursday and Friday I had said that 78.6% retracement of the last rise is 5302 and that close below 5340 will be worrisome. That view remains. I am personally bullish from Tuesday till then. Volatility may continue to be high intraday due to expiry unless a definite trend develops from Tuesday. Nifty will have to give a major breakout to sustain its upmove. First sign of strength will be a daily close above Friday's high of 5399.50NS/5414NF.

2.         PCR at 1.27 and VIX at 16.47. Pre-open high/low at 5386.45/5328.50 and close at 5348.05. This indicates flat to +ve trend.

3.         ASPER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5343NF, TARGET 5321/05 SL 5373.

4.         First -ww target considered met.

5.         First -ww target considered met.

6.         Nifty opened flat and remained range bound till noon but after that reacted and finally closed -ve and below yesterday's close. It almost made a double bottom with the low of 13th August. In the process, both the targets of -ww were met so also the targets of 9.30 strategy and the inverted flag mentioned in the first post. The slight worry is that it closed below 5340 and, as far as expiry is concerned, tomorrow's market will indicate whether expiry will be above 5400 or below 5300.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/08/12

LEADER POST for Monday (27/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5382, 5368 and and 5349 while other previous lows to watch are 5346/30/09 and 5295. Resistances are at about 5393, 5405 and 5485/90. Three likely +WWs give about 5404, 5433 and 5460 (+WWs with much higher levels are not given) while four likely -WWs give about 5360/36/28/22 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A huge likely bullish flag gives levels in excess of 5600 unless killed below about 5200. A likely rising wedge, which seems to have broken down, may give about 5295.

After three consecutive days, nifty closed below 5400 indicating that it may be a bit tired. While 5480-5500 is a stiff resistance zone, crucial lower levels are 5364/62 and the zone of 5347-5339. The -ve div on rsi on daily chart posted earlier gave its result and I feel nifty may consolidate till a +ve div develops. However, there is consolation for bulls in that there is no such -ve div on any indicator on weekly chart. Volatility will continue to be high intraday due to expiry next week unless a definite trend develops from Tuesday. Monday's open level and subsequent movement of nifty in the week will confirm bearishness signaled by the last week's candle or otherwise. Nifty will have to give a major breakout next week to sustain its upmove.

2.         PCR at 1.30 and VIX at 16.16. Pre-open high/low at 5393.70/5362.75 and close at 5387.85. The 10tf is a long legged doji and may indicate flat but volatile nifty today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5386NF TARGET 5362/45 SL 5416.

4.         I feel NS may find it difficult to cross 5362/64 and if it does then 5339.

5.         An inverted flag gives 5354NS unless killed above 5376.

6.         Inverted flag target met. (9.30 strategy) Target met. If it doesn't recover now then close will be at the lows of the day.

7.         Nifty opened flat and tended to give an impression that the -ve signal given by last week's shooting star may have been negated. But, it kept on sliding slowly and closed -ve and about 36 below Friday's low. Target of the first -ww was met as was that of 9.30 strategy. Fortunately the zone of 5347-5339 held but since it came at the end, it is not clear whether it will hold on Tuesday. An inverted flag identified during the day also gave its target.

The optimists will take solace form (a) nifty did not open gap down, (b) it closed above psychological level of 5350, (c) NF closed above important number of 5353, (d) all indicators are at oversold level and (e) it seems to have made a double bottom with low of 17th August.

The pessimists will simply see that it closed below last week's low.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (24/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5413, 5407, 5392 and and 5365 while other previous lows to watch are about 5346/30/09 and 5295. Resistances are at about 5418, 5434, 5457 and 5464. Two likely +WWs give about 5421 and 5446 (+WWs with much higher levels are not given). A number of likely -WWs give about 5377 (but point 5 is at about 5460), 5349, 5339 and 5327 (once below 5408) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A huge likely bullish flag gives levels in excess of 5600 unless killed below about 5200. An inverted flag gets nullified above about 5425. A likely rising wegde, breaks down, gives about 5295.

Nifty made a new high on Thursday and but could not close at a new high. However, the fact that it once again closed above 5400 indicates bullish tendency albeit a bit tired. But 5480-5500 is a stiff resistance zone. What's more, the -ve div persists on rsi on daily chart and I feel nifty may consolidate till a +ve div develops. Volatility will continue to be high intraday. Friday's move will most likely give indication for next week's trend. In the short term, nifty will have to give a major breakout to sustain its upmove.

2.         PCR at 1.30 and VIX at 16.12. Pre-open high/low at 5415.35/5308.85 and close at 5392.60. This may indicate a flat to mildly -ve nifty today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5395NF TARGET 5371/5351 SL 5425. But I wonder whether NS will go below 5364.

4.         In spite of apparent bearish undercurrent, today's range is only 34 points and market is just 30 down. That shows something is amiss.

5.         Nifty opened down with a gap as expected, remained in a small range of about 38 points (in spite of a bearish undertone) and closed -ve and below yesterday's low. The range being small, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy call was triggered. The fourth support level was not breached but the target of first -ww was met. But as was stated in the morning 5364 was not broken.

Today's candle is, therefore, once again a doji. Also, weekly candle is an inverted hammer but being at the top of an uptrend, it is not a reversal sign. However, being at the top, it is also called by many as a shooting star, which is reversal pattern.

We will have to see whether Monday opens with a gap down and gives a big fall. Unfortunately, since we are talking about weekly candle, it doesn't help till we have seen next week's candle, which is too late considering that it is an expiry week. Personally, I feel nifty may move up from Tuesday and negate the "shooting star".

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (23/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5412/09 and 5385 while other previous lows to watch are about 5346/30/09. Resistance is at 5436-40. A +ww gives much higher level but will be posted once nifty nears such a level. Two likely -WWs have been combined and give about 5332 (once below 5403) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A huge likely bullish flag gives levels in excess of 5600 unless killed below about 5200.

Nifty made a new high on Wednesday and but could not close at a new high. However, the fact that it once again closed above 5400 indicates strong bullish tendency albeit a bit tired. But 5430-40 and 5480-5500 are stiff resistance zones. What's more, the -ve div persists on rsi on daily chart and I feel nifty may consolidate till a +ve div develops. Volatility will continue to be high intraday in this week. Further upmove is likely next week.

2.         PCR sharply up at 1.30 and VIX 16.00. Low vix may suggest that only PEs are not being written predominantly.

3.         Pre-open high/low at 5426.20/5366.85 and close at 5426.15. This is a hammer in 10tf and may indicate a +ve market.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5463NF TARGET 5484 SL 5433. I JUST FEEL SL MAY BE HIT AND THEN UPPER TARGET TOO. If SL is hit, target is 5403/ 5393 NF with SL 5456 but I feel it may not go below 5410/06 or 5397NS.

5.         A -ww gives 5432NS.

‎6.         -ww target revised to 5430NS. Inverted flag gives 5327.

‎7.         -ww target met. Inverted flag target met.

8.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered.

9.         First target of reversed trade of 9.30 strategy met.

10.       As expected, nifty opened up with a small gap, marginally crossed resistance level and went to make a new high as suggested by the pre-open values. Later though it reacted, as European markets went down, to make a lower low than yesterday only to close -ve but above yesterday's close. However, it closed once again above 5400 keeping its bullish bias. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered but the target of reverse trade was met. Targets of a -ww and an inverted flag identified during the day were also met. Today's candle is a doji and hence either way movement possible tmrw.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (22/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5413, 5402, 5397/93, 5389/86/84 and 5364 while other previous lows to watch are about 5346/30/09 and 5294. Resistances are in a zone of about 5427-30. A +ww gives much higher level but will be posted once nifty nears such a level. Two likely -WWs gives about 5337 (once below 5406) and 5297 (once below 5361) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A huge likely bullish flag gives levels in excess of 5600 unless killed below about 5200.

Nifty made a new high on Tuesday and also closed at a new high above 5400 indicating strong bullish tendency. But 5430 and 5480-5500 is a stiff resistance zone. What's more, the -ve div persists on rsi on daily chart and I feel nifty may consolidate till a +ve div develops. Volatility will increase this week. Further upmove is likely next week.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5421/5390.65 and close at 5395.75. It indicates likely negative trend with a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5411NF TARGET 5446/67 SL 5381.

4.         Target met.

5.         NS has crossed all resistance levels now time for a pause. NF has also crossed R2 level and has reached crucial number of 5454. So watch out.

6.         A bearish flag gives 5394NS unless killed above 5425.

7.         Nifty opened down with a gap, remained flat till afternoon and then went up to make a new high slightly above the resistance zone. However, it reacted later to close -ve and also below yesterday's close though not as -ve as indicated by the pre-open. The low was within the third support zone. The target of 9.30 strategy was met. The total range was about 38 points. The -ve div persists on daily chart.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (21/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5352, 5340 and 5328 while other previous lows to watch are about 5346/30/09 and 5294. Resistances are at about 5367, 5377, 5404 and above 5430. Two likely +WWs give about 5380 (once above 5341, the point 5 which is not reached yet) and 5430 (+WWs giving higher targets are not mentioned) while a likely -ww gives about 5310 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A likely bullish flag with a mast of about 105 can gives higher levels unless killed below about 5337. Nifty made a new high on Friday but closed lower but at the TL from the low of 26th July indicating some support coming in and uncertainty in the market.

Nifty is looking bullish but 5390-5420 is still a stiff resistance zone. As long as it does not close below 5300 on daily/weekly basis, there should be no worry. Volatility will increase in coming week as nifty approaches expiry. Also, it may remain relatively flat to consolidate in case there is further upside left, which is very likely.

2.         PCR at 1.18 and VIX at 15.73. Pre-open high/low at 5368.70/5310.60 and close at 5368.70 i.e. close at highest. This indicates that nifty may be flat to +ve.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5391NF TARGET 5425/34 SL 5361.

4.         A flag gives 5420 unless killed below 5378. I missed to mention the first +ww target was met in first 5 min.

5.         Let's see whether we get 5454 today.

‎6.         (Post by LLK) "TARGET 5425/34 " achieved.

‎7.         90 above yesterday's low! +ww target of 5430 considered met as it was appx.

8.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap, did not break opening low and remained flat till 12.30 before making its strong upmove. It took out three resistance levels, gave targets of both +WWs as well as the flag identified during the day, giving a bullish hint as stated in the first post. It gave the target of 9.30 strategy but without giving a chance for an ideal entry. In the process, it not only made a new high but also closed at a new high, that too above 5400. The only worrisome aspect is that -ve div on rsi on daily chart still remains.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (17/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5355/54/51 and 5343 while resistances are at about 5369, 5379, 5394/95 and above 5425. Three likely +WWs give about 5388, 5392 and 5420 (+WWs giving higher targets are not mentioned) while a likely -WW gives about 5314 (once below 5358) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). Nifty made a new high on Thursday but closed lower. The top of the channel that had formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) is at about 5500. Also, a likely bullish flag with a mast of about 60 has formed and can gives higher levels unless killed below 5355.

Nifty is looking bullish but 5390-5420 is a stiff resistance zone. However, with a long weekend ahead, it may react and settle lower on Friday. At the same time, as long as it does not close below 5300 on daily/weekly basis, there should be no worry. Volatility may increase as nifty approaches its peak. Also, it may remain flat to consolidate in case there is further upside left, which is very likely.

2.         There is -ve div on rsi on daily chart and Friday's closing will give us further idea about daily and weekly chart and its indicators.

3.         PCR at 1.18 and VIX at 15.69. Pre-open high/low at 5369.30/5333.45 and close at 5368.60. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate flat to +ve market.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5398NF TARGET 5425/43 SL 5367.

5.         I feel target of 5425NF may not come, may be only 5422 so be careful and raise SL to at least 5386NF if not higher.

6.         First two targets of +ww stated in first post and target of another +ww of 5412NF met.

7.         A bearish flag gives 5368NS unless nullified above about 5392.

8.         Flag target met. may be it will end at 5361/63.

9.         One more flag may give 5356.

10.       Flag target considered met.

11.       I feel it's worth taking a chance and go long for a while. sold for 34 gain.

12.       A bearish flag again may give 5322NS unless nullified above 5376

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (16/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5352/50, 5346/45 and 5328/24 while resistances are at about 5388, 5400 and 5460. Two likely +WWs give about 5385 and 5415 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5323 (once below 5357) and 5293 (once below 5348) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). Nifty made a new high on Tuesday and also closed at its highest since March. The top of the channel that had formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) is at about 5480. Also, a likely bullish flag with a mast of about 55 has formed and can gives higher levels unless killed below 5355.

Nifty is looking bullish but 5390-5420 is a stiff resistance zone. It has been making higher lows and higher highs in the last few days. At the same time, as long as it does not cross below 5280 on the lower side on daily basis, there should be no worry. Volatility may increase as nifty approaches its peak. Also, it may remain flat to consolidate in case there is further upside left.

2.         PCR at 1.21 and VIX at 15.64. Pre-open high/low at 5386.55/5339.55 and close at 5385.95. The 10 tf candle is a hanging man. This may indicate a -ve trend today. But we need to see whether next 10tf candle closes below 5380 to confirm -ve trend.

3.         At least next 10tf candle closed above 5380 thereby nullifying -ve trend indicated by pre-open. However, I feel 5368/65NF is possible on down side.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5391NF TARGET 5367/49 SL 5421.

5.         Nifty opened slightly up, made a higher high (though NF made a lower high) than Tuesday but then reacted to close mildly -ve and also below Tuesday's close. The target of first +ww was met soon after open. However, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered as nifty remained in a small range of about 33. Nifty has closed with indicators near oversold zone and with a mild +ve div on rsi.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (14/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5338, 5326, 5321 and 5314 while resistances are at about 5354/56, 5386, 5400 and 5460. Two likely +WWs give about 5380 and 5410 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5311 (once below 5330) and 5293 (once below 5344) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). Nifty bounced off the bottom of the channel that had formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) on Monday whose top is about 5460. Also, a likely bullish flag with a mast of about 43 has formed and can gives higher levels unless killed below 5325 and an apparent falling wedge formed in the last few days has broken out giving about 5376.

Nifty is now at a break out level. As long as it does not cross 5280/60 on the lower side on daily basis, uptrend is intact considering that it closed at its highest since 3rd April. Liquidity flow is strong. Tuesday is a day of inflation numbers and will be volatile. Hence trade with good SLs.

2.         I will be away in the morning and will not able to post but will try to post 9.30 strategy through Lalitji. However, I am giving one hint for ease of those interested. Whatever the open (O) value, buy around O-0.75% and sell at O+0.75% (but not short sell). At the same time, I feel NF may not go below 5345 though retesting of previous low of 5320NF is not ruled out. Market could be volatile due to inflation data coming out today.

3.         (Post by LKL) 09:30 strategy SELL ABOVE 5350 TARGET 5330 SL 5380.

4.         (Post by LKL) SL triggered with Nifty 5391+ Future already.

5.         NS made a slightly higher high than previous one on 8th Oct. but 5386 is not crossed yet. In the process, targets of first +ww, flag and falling wedge breakout mentioned in the first post met.

6.         A 39 high mast flag fails below 5345NS.

7.         Nifty almost 90 above yesterday's low. Long holders should keep tight SL now e.g. 5390NF.

8.         If it breaks 5374NS, further fall is possible.

9.         Finally nifty got tired after 90 above yesterday's low, as it always does.

10.       Nifty opened flat and remained mildly -ve till 11.30 and once inflation data was out, it started its much awaited upmove. It made a new high since 16th March, closed +ve and also above Monday's close and its highest since 15th March. The second support and resistance levels held. Nifty met targets of first +ww, flag and wedge breakout mentioned in the first post. Once again, the SL for 9.30 strategy's "sell" call was triggered. Nifty could not go up more than 90 points above Monday's low and could not cross 5387.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/08/12

LEADER POST for Monday (13/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5317, 5308, 5302 and 5280 while resistances are at 5327-30, 5380 and 5454. Four likely +WWs give about 5347, 5372, 5380 and 5400 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5308 and 5275/70 (once below 5300) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). However, nifty closed at the bottom of the channel that has formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) whose top is 5454. Also, a likely bullish flag gives 5346 and an apparent falling wedge formed in the last few days seems to have broken out giving about 5376.

Nifty is now at a crucial junction for a make or break situation. As long as it does not cross 5260 on daily basis, I feel uptrend is intact. The shape of things to come may be known from how nifty closes on Monday i.e. above 5350 (with a possible gap up open above 5320) or below 5295 (with a possible gap down open below 5308). Remember that liquidity flow is strong. Best to trade cautiously with good SLs.

2.         PCR up at 1.17 and VIX 16.07. Pre-open high/low at 5320.40/5163.95 and close at 5316.35. This may indicate a flat to +ve trend.

3.         Immediate trend is down with target 5298NF and SL 5344. Wait for 9.30 call.

4.         Trend reversed but wait for9.30.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5360NF, TARGET 5378/94 SL 5330.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered. as mentioned earlier target now 5297/88 SL 5344.

7.         Unless NS breaks above 5330, nifty may remain flat.

8.         (SL of reverse trade triggered again and trend is up again) second target revised to 5388NF from 5394.

9.         Waiting for +ww target of 5350NS but wonder whether it will come today. Flag target mentioned in first post met.

10.       First +ww target met.

11.       First target of 9.30 strategy considered met as NF made a high of 5377.70

12.       Nifty opened almost flat and remained flat to -ve till 1.40pm before starting its sharp rise. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met. But the second support level of 5308 held while the first resistance area of 5327-30 was easily taken out. It thus not only closed +ve (as was indicated after pre-open) but also above Friday's close.

In the process, the targets of first +ww and of flag mentioned in the first post were also met. Ironically, the SL of 9.30 strategy buy call was triggered first then SL of reverse sell trade was triggered and then target of first buy call was met.

More importantly, though it did not close above psychologically important (to many) level of 5350, it closed at its highest since 3rd April thereby indicating a bullish undercurrent. It should now take out 5369 and 5378 to continue its upward march.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (10/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5317, 5306, 5295 and 5289. Resistances are at 5324/27, 5331, 5336 and 5380. Three likely +WWs give about 5356, 5400 and 5426 while, on the other hand, two likely -WWs give about 5299 and 5274 (once below 5305). The other -WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned. However, 5289 is the bottom of a channel that has formed and I feel it may not be breached, except probably intraday.

Nifty reacted on Thursday due to poor IIP data. The daily candles for NS for last 3 days seem to have formed an evening star although not a perfect one. However, NF daily candles for last 3 days do not show such a pattern. Hence, the trend is uncertain/ confusing. It is still likely that nifty may fall further but as long as it does not cross 5260 on daily basis, I feel uptrend is intact. Remember that liquidity flow is strong with FIIs continuing to buy heavily. And hence trade cautiously.

2.         I forgot to mention that there is a -ve div on most indicators on daily charts and that's why the possibility that nifty may react a bit unless a strong upmove from tmrw negates it.

3.         PCR at 1.15 and VIX at 16.33. Pre-open high/low at 5322.95/5186.50 and close at 5308.20. Pre-open may indicate flat to +ve trend.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5326NF, TARGET 5301/5284 SL 5356.

5.         ………nifty chart seems to be forming cup and handle and if so, it will break out. If it is true and breaks out target is 5380+330 on lower tf and 5350+580 on daily charts.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered. Now buy below 5351NF Target 5381 SL 5321.

7.         First target of -ww already met around 1pm.

8.         Nifty opened down with a small gap according to global clues and closed slightly +ve as indicated by pre-open data. However, it closed slightly below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met. However, the lower end of channel was respected with NS making a low about 5294.

The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but the target of reverse trade was not met. Nifty closing flat was a surprise considering that index heavyweight SBI was very weak, thereby showing that liquidity was high.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (09/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5328 and 5262. Resistances are at 5377, 5383 and 5390. Two likely -WWs give about 5290 and 5225 (once below 5298). The other -ww with much lower level is not mentioned. However, 5262 is the bottom of a channel that has formed and I feel it may not be breached.

Nifty could not reach 5380 mentioned in post for Wednesday and reacted sharply thereafter. The daily candle for NS is an inverted hammer, which is not bad but the same for NF is a doji star. A gap down opening followed by a fall with a close on Thursday well below Tuesday's close will confirm bearishness. At the same time, a close well above Tuesday's close will negate this bearishness. Remember that liquidity flow is strong with FIIs continuing to buy heavily. And hence trade cautiously.

2.         BUY BELOW 5375 NF FOR TARGET 5405 (and may be 5420) SL 5345. As it is IIP data release day, it may be volatile.

3.         SL triggered with 5338 NF low so far.

4.         Surprisingly, contrary to yesterday's candle's bearish sentiment, nifty again opened up with a small gap but could not sustain and finally closed -ve and below yesterday's close, thanks mainly to a poor IIP data. The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but NF did not go down much beyond that, managing to remain above 5330 mentioned yesterday. Today's NS candle seems to have formed an evening star although not a perfect one. However, like yesterday, NF daily candle does not show such a pattern. Hence, the trend is uncertain/ confusing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (08/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5325, 5273/68, 5237 and 5223. Resistances are at 5351, 5368, 5380 and 5406. Two likely -WWs give about 5282 (once below 5327) and 5251 (once below 5304). The other -ww with much lower level is not mentioned.

Nifty finally broke out of crucial zone of 5286-95 to cross above the previous high of 5348 but could not sustain. So to begin with, Tuesday's high of about 5350 must be crossed and sustained to ensure further rise. Otherwise, in the event of a mere retesting and retracement from Tuesday's high will invite selling. Market players seem to be upbeat about new FM's recent announcements considering that FIIs have been buying incessantly. Hence, a bear trap by retracement from Tuesday's high can not be ruled out. At the same time, generally nothing happens when Parliament session is on (though a number of important bills are due for approval) and big players may take a breather. Best is to trade with good SLs or even hedge.

2.         PCR at 1.15 and VIX at 16.21. Both have gone up. Pre-open high/low at 5380.25/5258.50 and close at 5345.25. The 10tf candle is a long legged doji and may indicate uncertainty and volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5371 TARGET 5395/5415 SL 5341. EXPECT VOLATILITY IN VIEW OF CONFUSION AMONG TRADERS/PLAYERS ABOUT FUTURE OF NIFTY. NOTE NS AND NF HAVE CROSSED YESTERDAY'S RESPECTIVE HIGHS.

4.         A likely flag gives 5371NF unless killed below 5354.

5.         Flag target considered reached being only 1.20 below 5371.

6.         Crossing and remaining above 5359 NS now is a must for any further upmove.

7.         First target almost reached. Book at least partially and raise SL to 5364 or cost whichever is higher. Remember change time 2.22pm. Also, 5380NS may be max.

8.         Made a high of 5376.45.

9.         Once again nifty opened up with a small gap, went up to as much as 5376 before reacting sharply. Both NS and NF closed above yesterday's close but slightly -ve w.r.t. to today's open. NS candle formed an inverted hammer while NF candle was a doji star.

The uncertainty and volatility was as indicated by the pre-open candle. The target of 9.30 strategy was almost met. A bullish flag identified during the day also gave its target. NF closed above 5353, an important number as per one number theory and hence it doesn't help being extremely bearish form here.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (07/08/12)

1.         The supports are closely grouped at 5280, 5273/71, 5260/58, 5253/50, 5230 and 5212/10. Resistances are at 5288, 5291/94, 5318 and 5333 while other level to watch is 5295 and 5358. An upper resistance is 5346. Two likely +WWs give about 5313 and 5320 while two likely -WWs give about 5144 and 5114 (once below 5222). The other -ww with lower level is not mentioned.

Nifty finally broke out of crucial level of 5250 to close above previous high of 5267 but closed in the resistance zone. So to begin with 5295 is one crucial level. The gap created on 12/07 (5306) is yet to be filled up. As of now, nifty doesn't seem to have enough steam to go to much higher levels unless we see a series of +ve actions from the Govt. Monday's brief speech by FM seems to have given some hope and it's possible that FIIs may see it +vely. So, we may see another upmove on Tuesday. But remember that strong resistances exist at 5346 and 5380.

2.         PCR at 1.08 and VIX at 16.22. Pre-open high/low 5323.10/5228.65 and close at 5295.40. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate flat trend with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5278NF TARGET 5261/45 SL 5308. BUT REMEMBER TODAY COULD BE VOLATILE IN A FLAT RANGE AND SLs ON EITHER SIDE COULD BE TRIGGERED AS IT HAPPENED JUST NOW WHEN IT TRIGGERED SL FOR LONG TREND JUST BEFORE 9.30. IF SL FOR THIS SHORT TRADE IS TRIGGERED AGAIN, BUY WITH SL 5293 AND TARGET 5341/61. I FEEL EITHER SIDE TARGETS MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED TODAY.

4.         Upper target revised down to 5356 from 5361NF.

‎5.         12th July gap filled up.

6.         A likely bullish flag fails below about 5308NF. First +ww target mentioned in the first post met. Second only a few points away.

7.         Second +ww target also met. Let's see if bullish flag mentioned above gives 5350NF.

8.         First target of 9.30 strategy reached. raise SL to 5323NF. Flag target met.

9.         A +ww target mentioned on 20/07 also met though increased since then.

10.       Nifty opened up with a small gap and, contrary to indication given by the pre-open candle, gradually climbed up to fill up the gap created on 12th July and finally closed +ve and also above Monday's close. It did not break any supports and went past all resistances to marginally break previous high of 5348 (and also the upper TL from Feb high) before reacting a bit. Apparently, buyers took +ve cue from FM's speech on Monday as stated in the first post.

In the process, both the targets of +WWs were met. Also met was the target of a +ww mentioned in the post for 20/07 though it had gone up since then. The SL of initial "sell" trade given by 9.30 strategy was triggered soon after 9.30 and both the targets of reverse "buy" trade were met. A bullish flag identified during the day also gave its target. In short, a satisfactory day for trading.

The intraday chart of nifty fut values with 5 min candles is shown below.