Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/09/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (05/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5263, 5230, 5181 and 5162. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which was only partially filled on Tuesday and is under threat of being filled. Resistance is at about 5295 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Two likely +WWs give about 5343 (once above 5251) and 5353 (once above 5301) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). -WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently. A flag gives about 5300 unless killed below 5250.

Nifty may have closed mildly +ve on Tuesday and daily candle may be hammer but its likely direction seems down and seems to be in a mood to fill up the gap at 5215. The long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away and much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5296 and then 5360 is a must to imply bullish trend. Liquidity is the only hope that will support market but seems to be scarce as of now. The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent with a -ve bias. Nifty closed between a dicey zone of 5273-76 and can move either or both ways. I feel Wednesday may be very volatile.

2.         PCR flat at 0.91 VIX down to 16.59. Pre-open high/low at 5274/5246.75 and close at 5243.90. This indicates a -ve market. If market is going to go up as some believe, one possibility is that it will open with a gap down and that would be the bottom today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5253NF TARGET 5235/20 SL 5283.

4.         NS is in a small ST with appx. at 5252.90 and is moving within this ST for the last 70 min. BO/BD should come soon.

5.            Nifty opened down with a gap and, contrary to the bullish sentiment of some in the market based on late recovery yesterday, continued to go down as stated in the first post and as indicated by the pre-open data. Finally, it managed to fill the gap created on 3rd/6th August. In spite of that, the target of 9.30 strategy short trade was missed by about 5. The trend seems to be down unless we see a big Green candle tmrw.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-04/09/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (04/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5245, 5236/34, 5203 and 5188. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which is now under threat of being filled. Resistances are at about 5260 and 5284 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5341 (once above 5354), 5343 (once above 5286) and 5356 (once above 5316) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). -WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently.

Nifty may have closed only mildly -ve on Monday but its likely direction seems down only and now seems to be in a mood to fill up the gap at 5215. The long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away and much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5360 is a must to give hope. Liquidity is the only hope that will support market but seems to have vanished as of now. The period till 12/13th Sept. looks turbulent with a -ve bias.

2.         PCR at 0.91 and VIX at 17.28. Pre-open high/low at 5265/5223.25 and close at 5249.15.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5272NF TARGET 5244/25 SL 5302.

4.         Short sellers should lower SL to cost as nifty is not making a new low ..... as yet. If it closes above 5250NS, it may not go down further.

5.         A flag gives higher level unless killed below about 5247.

6.         If SL is triggered, target 5319/5323NF SL 5266. ‎5276NS is crucial intermediate level to be crossed to maintain up move.

7.         NS opened slightly -ve while NF opened slightly +ve, made a lower high and lower low than Monday but closed +ve and also above Monday's close thereby giving a hint that it may have reversed. The second support zone held in spite of three attempts to cross it and may imply accumulation. The SL of 9.30 strategy's short trade was hit but target of reverse long trade was not met. Today's candle is a hammer and may indicate trend reversal i.e. uptrend.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/09/12

LEADER POST for Monday (03/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5246/44, 5232, 5228/26 and 5207. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled if nifty moves further down. Resistances are at about 5261 and 5304 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Two likely +WWs give about 5337/49 (once above 5356) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). -WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently. A likely inverted flag with 64 high mast gives lower level unless nullified above about 5280.

Nifty lost more ground on Friday and now seems to be in a mood to fill up the gap at 5215. On daily charts, it closed below 34 ema and 89 ema is at about 5215. The lower TL from June low also gives 5215. A daily close below 5234 will be bad. The long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away and much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5360 is a must to give hope. Liquidity is the only issue that will support market. The period till 12/13th sept looks turbulent.

2.         PCR at 0.90 but VIX up at 17.30.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5307NF TARGET 5341/61 SL 5277.

4.         SL hit now target 5264/61.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but that proved to be the only plus point for the day as it kept going down. It did attempt about 30 point recovery midway but could not scale the morning high and ended -ve and also slightly below the previous close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered but the target of reverse trade was not met. However, the first support zone managed to hold.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. However, unfortunately it is only from 12.30.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (31/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5276/74 and 5240/35. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled if nifty moves further down. Resistances are at about 5320, 5341 and 5350 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5360, 5433 (once above 5363) and 5481 (once above 5354) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). An old -ww gives 5234 (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned). A likely flag with 70 high mast gives higher level unless nullified below about 5297. The falling wedge mentioned yesterday seems to have broken out and may give about 5450 unless it's a false break out.

Nifty recovered after a further fall on Thursday and seems to be in a mood to resume its upward journey. However, there are many ifs and buts. Friday, being the last day of the week, should not have a low below 5250/45 and should close above 5388 to remain bullish. However, 5360-75 is a good resistance zone. Nifty will have to give a break out above that to sustain its upmove for weeks to come. Otherwise, the gap on 3rd August is not far away nor is the "famous" zone since many years 5170-90. A lot of important news events are lined up in next 2 weeks and hence trade carefully.

2.         PCR down to 0.93 and VIX at 16.67. Pre-open high/low at 5315.05/5270.80 and close at 5298.20. The narrow range indicates uncertainty due to important news day. But a small gap down open looks certain.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5301.50NF TARGET 5281/66 SL 5331.50.

4.         Two -WWs give 5282/5240NS.

5.         First -ww target of 5282 met.

‎6.         9.30 strategy's first target considered met although it may go lower!

7.         Nifty opened down once again with a small gap, failed in its attempt to make a higher high than yesterday and then started sliding down to make a new low. It closed -ve and also below previous close. The target of an old -ww stated in the first post was almost met so also the targets of two -WWs identified during the day. The falling wedge break out of Thursday failed again. The first target of 9.30 strategy was also met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (30/08/12)

1.         The support is at about 5271/68 while other previous level to watch is 5270. Also, there is the gap at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled in this down move. Resistances are at about 5295, 5306 and 5312 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5302 (once above 5287), 5325 (once above 5284) and 5337 (once above 5307) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). An old -ww gives 5244. A likely inverted flag gives similar level unless nullified above about 5307. A likely falling wedge may give about 5450 if it breaks out.

Nifty seems to be near its last possible bottom in this downtrend unless it intends to break down for much lower levels. One possibility is that it may fill up the gap mentioned above before recovering or it may start moving up without going there also, after falling a bit from Wednesday's close. Note that it has been falling for 5 straight days. Volatility will be high due to expiry. I won't be surprised by a large range for Thursday considering that expiry days in the last many months have been flat. Nifty will have to give a sharp pullback soon to sustain its upmove for weeks to come.

2.         My guess is 5210 on lower side and 5350 on higher side will be limits on Thursday. Be alert in case of a sudden and huge fall intraday in 5 min., which, if happens, will form the bottom.

3.         PCR at 1.13 and VIX at 16.74.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5262NF TARGET 5240/20 SL 5292.

5.         I feel those short sellers who play for a day or two should cover their shorts today since tmrw may be up. NF is below S3 level and rarely goes to S4 so watch out.

6.         It looks like buying may emerge about 5255NS/5260NF.

7.         I feel NF may go a above 5300 to kill 5300PE buyer!

‎8.         5319NF possible

‎9.         (Post by LLK) "AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY" nifty hits SL 5292.

10.       My apologies to all. I failed to post in today's anxiety that target of reverse buy in case 9.30 strategy SL is hit, is 5319.

11.       Targets of first two +WWs met as also target of inverted flag, both having been mentioned in the first post. If NS made a high of 5342.80 then even the third +ww target met.

12.       Nifty once again opened down with a small gap and continued its downward movement for an hour, making a new low. It then rose a bit but then remained flat till afternoon. However, later, it slowly started moving up and then rose sharply from 3pm, typical of an expiry day. It finally closed +ve and also above yesterday's close, the first such +ve close in a week. The 10tf pre-open candle was a big inverted hammer indicating a possible trend reversal.

During initial fall, the inverted flag stated in the first post gave its target. However, the SL of 'sell' trade given by 9.30 strategy was triggered and target of reverse 'buy' trade was met. Also, the targets of all the three +WWs stated in the first post were met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. However, it is only from 11 am.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (29/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5328, 5321, 5302 and 5298/93 while other previous levels to watch are 5309 and 5294. Resistance is at about 5360 while other previous levels to watch are 5399, 5420 and 5449. A number of likely +WWs give about 5352 (once above 5328), 5387 (once above 5354) and 5418/55 (once above 5369) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). A likely -WW gives about 5310 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A likely inverted flag gives about 5285 unless nullified above 5370. A falling channel mentioned yesterday (with lower limit of 5294 and upper limit of 5315) seems to have broken out and may give about 5398 if it sustains. A likely falling wedge, again mentioned yesterday, also seems to have broken out and may give about 5350/5398/5450 if it sustains.

Nifty now faces a real test having closed below 5340 and a break below 5294 and/or daily close below 5302 will create real concern about immediate future trend. I am still bullish but now cautious. Volatility may continue to be high intraday due to expiry unless a definite trend develops from Wednesday. Nifty will have to give a major breakout this week to sustain its upmove for weeks to come. First sign of strength will be a daily close above Friday's high of 5399.50NS/5414NF in this week. Tuesday's candle is an imperfect hammer and may give trend reversal.

2.         PCR at 1.23 and VIX at 16.35. Pre-open high/low at 5578.45/5319.60 and close at 5343.85. The last time we saw such a high was in July. The pre-open may indicate a +ve trend, perhaps strong too.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5346NF, TARGET 5310/5289 SL 5376.

4.         (9.30 strategy) Target met. (The) ‎-ww target also met.

5.         The rising wedge breakdown stated in Monday's thread gave its target of 5295NS.

6.         Target of inverted flag stated in first post considered met.

7.         Nifty actually opened up with a small gap but that was the end of it. After remaining flat for 2 hours, it started sliding. It broke previous low of 5294 and 5290 stated in the first post and closed below it. However, it did not break 5280, considered by many as last stand for long holders. In the process, it gave targets of 9.30 strategy, the inverted flag and the -ww, the latter two mentioned in the first post. It also gave target of rising wedge breakdown mentioned in Monday's thread.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (28/08/12)

1.         The support is at about 5340 while other previous lows to watch are 5330 and 5294. Resistances are at about 5355, 5363 and 5418. A number of likely +WWs give about 5382 (once above 5349), 5398/5411 (once above 5371), 5422/46 (once above 5357) and 5438 (once above 5363) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). As can be seen smaller +WWs are within larger ones. Two likely -WWs give about 5331/14 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). An inverted flag gives about 5324 unless nullified above 5366. A falling channel (with lower limit of 5341 and upper limit of 5362) gives about 5398 in case it breaks out. A likely falling wedge may give about 5420/5450 if it breaks out.

Nifty now faces a resistance zone of 5347-5339. Break below 5294 and/or daily close below 5339 first and then 5309 will create concern about immediate future trend. In my post in the threads for Thursday and Friday I had said that 78.6% retracement of the last rise is 5302 and that close below 5340 will be worrisome. That view remains. I am personally bullish from Tuesday till then. Volatility may continue to be high intraday due to expiry unless a definite trend develops from Tuesday. Nifty will have to give a major breakout to sustain its upmove. First sign of strength will be a daily close above Friday's high of 5399.50NS/5414NF.

2.         PCR at 1.27 and VIX at 16.47. Pre-open high/low at 5386.45/5328.50 and close at 5348.05. This indicates flat to +ve trend.

3.         ASPER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5343NF, TARGET 5321/05 SL 5373.

4.         First -ww target considered met.

5.         First -ww target considered met.

6.         Nifty opened flat and remained range bound till noon but after that reacted and finally closed -ve and below yesterday's close. It almost made a double bottom with the low of 13th August. In the process, both the targets of -ww were met so also the targets of 9.30 strategy and the inverted flag mentioned in the first post. The slight worry is that it closed below 5340 and, as far as expiry is concerned, tomorrow's market will indicate whether expiry will be above 5400 or below 5300.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.