Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/11/12

LEADER POST for Friday (09/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5730, 5724 and 5717 while Resistances are at about 5741, 5745, 5761 and 5811. Two likely +WWs give about 5790 (once above 5746) and 5798 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 5721, 5703 and 5679/71/69 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty once again closed above 5730 in spite of opening down with a big gap. This shows that bulls may still be in control. Nifty did react as posted yesterday. The next few days' move will now show what is in store in short term. Crossing above 5816 and daily close above 5788 is necessary for a clear break out. A daily close below 5680 will take it down further.

2.         Targets of first two -WWs met.

3.         Target of third -ww met.

4.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and quickly made a higher high than yesterday. But soon it reacted to make a lower low to close -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process, targets of three -WWs mentioned in the first post were met. The only consolation is that the day and the week closed above 5680.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/11/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (08/11/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5740, 5731 and 5717 while the resistances are at about 5773, 5788 and 5800. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5728, 5696 (once below 5749) and 5682 (once below 5736) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 5734 while a bearish flag can give lower level unless killed above 5766.

Nifty finally closed above 5730. The nifty clearly looks bullish in near term. However, a reaction seems likely before the next upmove, having gone up about 190 points from the previous low.

2.         PCR at 1.11 and VIX at 14.51. It will be interesting to see these EOD today. Pre-open high/low at 5850.70/5709 and close at 5709. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5759NF, TARGET 5788/5803 SL 5729.

4.         The targets of first -ww and the bearish flag met in open itself.

5.         If low was about 5694 then target of second -ww also met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a big gap based on global cues but that was the end of it. It did not go up much but managed to close +ve as indicated by the pre-open data but below yesterday's close. In the process, targets of the first two -WWs and the bearish flag mentioned in the first post were met. However, the total range being small, the target of 9.30 strategy trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/11/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (07/11/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5705/01, 5675 and 5634 while the resistances are at about 5734 and 5744. Two likely +WWs give about 5761/67 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while three likely -WWs give about 5686/76 (once below 5725) and 5669 (once below 5702) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 5706.

Nifty managed to reach 5730 with a sharp rise and it appears that it could be just a loser’s consolation that it did not cross or close above 5730. Nifty futures also closed above an important number of 5757 as per one number theory. The nifty is now clearly bullish in immediate term and only a -ve and surprise result from US presidential election can reverse the trend.

2.         The 9.30 strategy gave a down trend but got reversed after 9.40.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5770NF, TARGET 5803/06 SL 5740.

4.         Target of first +ww met.

5.         First target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         Target of second +ww met.

7.         Nifty opened down with a small gap but soon started climbing as news about Obama's victory came in. It made a new high and closed +ve and also above yesterday's close. The 9.30 strategy trade saw its SL hit soon after 9.30 but the target of reverse trade was met. Also met were targets of both the +WWs and the bullish flag mentioned in the first post.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/11/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (06/11/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5688, 5675 and 5553 while the resistances are at about 5707 and 5745. A likely +WW gives about 5730 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while two likely -WWs give about 5687 and 5673 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 5693.

Nifty managed to hold 5680 on Monday and also close +ve. The daily candle is an imperfect hanging man, which can be bearish. While it is possible that nifty may revisit 5432, which is the gap created on 13/14 Sept, it may have a few surprises up its sleeve and hence one must trade with proper SLs. Nifty now needs to close above 5730 to give hopes of continuation of an uptrend. A daily close below 5680 and then 5630 will take nifty down further.

2.         PCR up at 1.11 and VIX up at 14.63. Pre-open high/low at 5735/5683.05 and close at 5694.10. This may indicate a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5740NF, TARGET 5771/91 SL 5710.

4.         A -ww has now developed which gives 5697 once below 5717.

5.         Target of -ww identified earlier met.

6.         Targets of +ww and the bullish flag of the first post as well as that of 9.30 strategy met.

7.         Nifty opened down with a small gap but went up thereafter. It did react again but could not make a new low and then rose sharply again to make a higher high, finally closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. In the process, targets of +ww and the bullish flag mentioned in the first post as well as that of 9.30 strategy trade were met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/11/12

LEADER POST for Monday (05/11/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5684, 5649 and 5568 while the resistances are at about 5702, 5706, 5714 and 5720. Two likely +WWs give about 5751 and 5780 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while a number of likely -WWs give about 5690/86/84, 5678 and 5634 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent rising channel seems to have broken down and can about 5600 unless nifty goes above 5800.

Nifty managed to close above 5680 both on daily and weekly basis and thereby gave a bullish undertone. However, daily candle is an Evening Doji Star which is a bearish sign and nifty may go down further if it opens gap down on Monday and also closes well below 5645. In such a case supports of 34 ema and 55 ema/50 sma are at about 5621/5557 and they may hold. Weekly candle is a hammer, which is a bullish sign.

While it is possible that nifty may revisit 5432, which is the gap created on 13/14 Sept, it may have a few surprises up its sleeve and hence one must trade with proper SLs. Nifty now needs to close above 5730 to give hopes of continuation of an uptrend. I feel that next week may be very volatile as bears try to seize control from the bulls. In other words both the evening doji star and the hammer will succeed in that order.

2.         PCR up at 1.09 and VIX down at 13.66. Pre-open high/low at 5945.85/5693.05 and close at 5693.05. The 10tf candle is huge inverted hammer and may indicate a -ve nifty after a flat to slight gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5766NF, TARGET 5716 SL 5796.

4.         Target of first -ww met. Target of 9.30 strategy met without giving entry, thanks to weird O/H values.

5.         Targets of first 3 -WWs met.

6.         Nifty opened 4 points down, remained flat for a while and then reacted. It made a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing slightly +ve and also slightly above Friday's close. On the other hand, nifty fut opened 20 points up, made a higher high and low than those on Friday and closed -ve but flat as compared to Friday's close. In the process, the targets of first three -WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade. The daily candle is an imperfect hanging man, which can be bearish in immediate term.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-02/11/12

LEADER POST for Friday (02/11/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5622, 5574, 5569, 5561, 5546 and 5521 while the resistances are at about 5656, 5664, 5679 and 5712. Two likely +WWs give about 5717 and 5741 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while three likely -WWs give about 5624, 5594 and 5527 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A likely rising wedge can give about 5600 in case of a BD.

Nifty once again closed above 34 ema but can take support at 55 ema or 50 sma or 89 ema, which are at about 5548/5551/5462, if it goes down. While it is possible that it may revisit 5432, which is the gap created on 13/14 Sept, it may have a few surprises up its sleeve and hence one must trade with proper SLs. To begin with, nifty now needs to close above 5680 to give hopes of an uptrend.

2.         PCR up at 1.06 VIX at 14.08. Pre-open high/low at 5700.35/5624.05 and close at 5696.35. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5722NF TARGET 5753/63 SL 5692.

4.         Those who bought on 9.30 strategy, raise SL to 5724 NF and book a bit short of target to be safe.

5.         SL for 9.30 strategy should be 5725NF now.

6.         Raise SL to 5736NF.

7.         Nifty opened gap up, made a higher high and low than those yesterday (and also a new weekly high) but closed flat though above yesterday's close. In spite of that, neither the target of any +ww was met nor that of 9.30 strategy trade since the total range was only about 28 points (about 48 points for nifty fut). The daily candle is an Evening Doji Star (though nifty fut candle is only an Evening Star).

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/11/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (01/11/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5580, 5577, 5570 and 5540 while the resistances are at about 5629, 5664 and 5689. Three likely +WWs give about 5660, 5706 and 5731 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5598 and 5544 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). The daily chart shows a mild +ve div in rsi and the indicators are at/near oversold levels.

Nifty has barely managed to close above 34 ema but can take support at 55 ema or 50 sma, which are at about 5545/48, if it goes down. While it is possible that it may revisit 5432, which is the gap created on 13/14 Sept, it may have a few surprises up its sleeve and hence one must trade with proper SLs. To begin with, nifty now needs to close above 5680 to give hopes of an uptrend.

2.         PCR flat at 1.03 and VIX down at 14.40.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5616NF, TARGET 5595 SL 5646. If SL hit BUY below 5659NF, target 5680 SL 5629.

4.         (posted by others) Sell trade’s SL gone.

5.         Target of reverse trade met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap but went up to close +ve and also above yesterday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. Though today's candle is bullish, the total range was about 47 points only.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.