Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/08/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (01/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5726 and 5703 while resistances are at about 5758, 5807 and 5950. Three +WWs can give about 5859 (once above 5791), 5923 (once above 5850) and 5957 (once above 5874) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5577 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge/channel break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5778.

Nifty recovered after a gap down but could not above 5750 and is clearly very bearish. Monthly chart is bearish showing -ve div. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Also, daily candle is a hammer cum long legged doji cum imperfect morning doji star, a likely reversal sign. To confirm reversal, nifty must close on Thursday well above 5755, preferably above 5796, preferably after a gap up open. Higher levels are possible only if it closes above 5900. A close below 5723 can result in much lower levels as weekly support lies at 5612/5548. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5777 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5800NF, TARGET 5842, SL 5770.

4.         SL hit.

5.         Since SL is hit, sell above 5799NF, target 5755, SL 5829.

6.         Target of reverse trade met without giving chance of an entry.

7.         Earlier, target of original trade was missed by just 1 point.

8.         Target of reverse trade was met after getting an entry.

9.         Nifty opened gap up, rose further to make a higher high but reacted sharply thereafter thanks to problems on NSEL exchange. It barely managed to make a higher low than yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. Volatility was so high that SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit after its target was missed by only 1 point, then target of reverse trade was met without giving chance of an entry and then again it was met after giving a good entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (31/07/13)

1.         Support is at about 5723 while resistances are at about 5802, 5817, 5869 and 5950. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5682. Four +WWs can give about 5859 (once above 5791), 5917 (once above 5849), 5954 (once above 5879) and 5977 (once above 5794) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5577 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge/channel break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5800.

Nifty fell again and closed below 5800 and is clearly very bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Support exists at about 5750 and some recovery is possible as nifty has fallen for five straight days but higher levels are possible only if it closes above 5900. A close below 5723 can result in much lower levels as weekly support lies at 5612/5548. Wednesday's close is important as it will be a monthly close. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall. Fed policy being on 31/07, trade carefully.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 5739 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5796NF, TARGET 5736, SL 5826.

4.         Target met without giving chance of an entry.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, fell further to make a lower low but rose sharply later in the day to close slightly +ve but below yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a long legged doji cum hammer cum imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (30/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5797, 5789 and 5728 while resistances are at about 5856, 5923, 5950, 5983 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5750 and 5630. However, 50wma is at about 5803 and nifty may take support around that level. Four +WWs can give about 5949 (once above 5828), 5952 (once above 5884), 6016 (once above 5950) and 6044 (once above 5939) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5776 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5850.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap down open and closed below 5850 and, particularly, below 200dma, which is clearly bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Also, an imperfect morning star has formed in daily candle. To satisfy this likely bullish sign, nifty must close well above 5900 on Tuesday, preferably with a gap up open. About 5800 can be the SL for longs while about 5950 the SL for shorts, both SLs being on daily close basis. A close below 5800 can result in much lower levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall. Tuesday being the RBI policy review and Fed policy being on 31/07, trade carefully.

2.         PCR flat at 1.0 and VIX up at 18.25. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to +ve nifty after a slightly gap up open unless it remains below 5836 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5866NF, TARGET 5839, SL 5896.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5900NF, target 5927, SL 5870.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Target of original trade met.

8.         Target of -ww of the first post met.

9.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap and rose a bit before tanking after RBI policy review to make a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process previous lower gap at 5816 was filled. The target of -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side before giving the original target.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/07/13

LEADER POST for Monday (29/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5840 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5935, 6002 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5830, 5750 and 5630. However, it may be noted that 200dma is at about 5852, 26wema is at about 5861 and 50wma is at about 5792. Also, TL joining lows of shoulders of IHnS gives about 5851. Hence and nifty may take support there. Four +WWs can give about 5942 (once above 5888), 5951 (once above 5893), 6010 (once above 5953) and 6022 (once above 5946) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5817 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling wedge break outs can give about 6045/85 if nifty remains above 5878.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap up open and closed below 5900 and is clearly bearish. Also, a mild -ve div is seen on weekly chart. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs and a mild recovery is likely. About 5850 can be the SL for longs while about 6110 the SL for shorts, both SLs being on daily close basis. A break below 5830 can result in lower levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         PCR unchanged at 1.0 and VIX up at 16.78. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it remains above 5870 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5895NF, TARGET 5871, SL 5925.

4.         Target met.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, reacted a bit and then recovered again. However, it fell again in the afternoon to make a lower high and low than those on Friday before closing -ve and also below Friday's low. The target of 9.30 strategy trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/07/13

LEADER POST for Friday (26/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5870, 5840 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5935, 6002 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5830, 5750 and 5630. It is to be noted that 50/200 dma are at 5905 and 5851 and nifty may take support there. Three +WWs can give about 5948, 6006 (once above 5956) and 6046 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5889 and 5830 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge break out can give about 6085 if nifty goes above 5927.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap down open and just managed to close above 5900 and is clearly bearish. Also, a mild -ve div is seen on weekly chart. About 5850 can be the SL for longs while about 6110 the SL for shorts. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR crashed to 1.0 and VIX down at 16.72. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains below 5937 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5970NF, TARGET 6000, SL 5940.

4.         If SL is hit sell above 5941NF, target 5910, SL 5971.

5.         (Post by LKL) SL is hitted (sic).

6.         Target of reverse trade met.

7.         Target of first -WW was met around noon.

8.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but that was the end of it. It started sliding and made a lower high and low than those yesterday. It tried to rally late in the day only to retreat again, closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met.

The chart for the week shows further slide possible. However, due to +ve div in lower tf, some recovery is possible.

The intraday and week’s chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/07/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (25/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5967, 5917, 5857 and 5820 while resistances are at about 6001, 6046, 6065 and 6093. Two +WWs can give about 5999 and 6070 (once above 6021) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 5889 and 5857 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty fell sharply in spite of a gap down open and closed below 6000 and seems to be headed down. The evening star and the "coiled spring" pattern mentioned in Wednesday's thread showed its effect. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. This being an expiry day, trade carefully and book trades quickly.

2.         PCR down at 1.29 and VIX up at 16.91. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 5970 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5995NF, TARGET 6025, SL 5965.

4.         SL hit.

5.         Since SL is hit, sell above 5966NF, target 5935, SL 5996.

6.         Bearish flag can give 5924 unless killed above 6010.

7.         Target of reverse trade met.

8.         Target of bearish flag mentioned earlier met.

9.         Nifty again opened down with a gap and kept going down. It made a lower high and low than yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met. Also met was target of a bearish flag posted during the day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (24/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6057, 6030 and 6000 while resistances are at about 6090, 6107, 6157 and 6248. Three +WWs can give about 6094, 6126 and 6200 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 6038 (once below 6088), 6010 (once below 6066) and 5985 (once below 6096) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty rose in spite of a gap up open and closed above 6050 and seems to be headed upwards. Also, the mild -ve div seen earlier in RSI on daily chart has vanished. However, daily candle is an evening star and an imperfect inverted hammer, likely bearish signs. Hence, nifty will have to close at a higher high, preferably with a gap up open, to defeat it. Tuesday was a NR7 day. Repeated small range days have formed a "coiled spring" pattern and we could see a blow-out with big moves.

About 6050 seems to be a tight SL for longs but 6000 is the last SL. If 6150 is not crossed on Wednesday, expiry could be below 6100 but, if it is, then we could see 6200+ by expiry. If 6000 is breached, it could fall sharply. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. VIX and PCR are expected to remain high and can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. This being an expiry week, trade carefully and book trades quickly.

2.         PCR at 6 month high at 1.38 and VIX down at 16.72. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains below 6032 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY BUY BELOW 6063NF, TARGET 6092, SL 6033.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 6031NF, target 6001, SL 6061.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of reverse trade met but without giving a chance of an entry.

7.         Targets of first two -WWs of the first post met.

8.         Target of third -WW of the first post also met.

9.         Thanks to RBI's tough action, nifty opened down with a gap and kept sliding. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. Targets of all the three -WWs of the first post were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and target of reverse trade was met, though without giving chance of entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.