Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/08/12

LEADER POST for Monday (06/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5208, 5190, 5185 and 5168/67 while other levels to watch are 5154 and 5077. Resistances are at 5217/21, 5226/27 and 5240 while other levels to watch are 5247/57/67. An upper zone of strong resistance is 5286-95. Nifty has been struggling to cross recent highs of about 5257 (19/07) and 5267 (13/07). Two likely +WWs give about 5252 (once above 5206) and 5306 while two likely -WWs give about 5191 (once below 5212) and 5118 (once below 5209). The other -ww with lower level is not mentioned.

Nifty has moved in a very narrow range in the last few days. It is important to note that Friday's candle was once again a hanging man. Hence, it is important to see opening and closing levels on Monday to confirm the bearish signal of hanging man or otherwise. However, considering the way global markets behaved on Friday, we will most probably see a gap up opening on Monday and then the gap created on 12/07 (5306) could be filled up. But, as of now, nifty doesn't seem to have enough steam to go to much higher levels unless we see a series of +ve actions from the Govt.

2.         PCR at 1.11 and VIX at 16.12.

3.         Pre-open high/low 5260.85/5203.55 at while close at 5260.85. This is probably the first time in many days that pre-open closed at high. Though nifty has gone down once with such a pre-open, it was during a downtrend while it is opposite this time and hence nifty may move up today. But that will bring it close to strong resistance levels. So, be careful in your trades.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5267NF TARGET 5247 SL 5297. BUT BE CAREFUL IN VIEW OF THE BULLISH UNDERTONE.

5.         If SL is hit, buy immediately with target 5326/39NF and SL 5276. But no haste.

6.         Having crossed all resistance levels stated in first post, we need to see how zone of 5286-95 resists.

7.         Day's close above 5250NS is good, above 5267 is very good and above 5295 is excellent.

8.         I feel one should carry longs today.

9.         As stated in the first post, nifty opened gap up but then remained flat, possibly indicating distribution with rsi showing -ve div upto 15tf. As mentioned after pre-open, it could not cross upper resistance level of 5295. The first +ww target was met in the opening itself but the gap of 19/07 was not filled. It closed +ve and also above Friday's close but within the resistance zone. However, the fact that it closed above the previous high of 5267 makes it look bullish enough for a further rise.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (03/08/12)

1.         The support is in the zone 5225-22 while other levels to watch are 5212-04, 5154 and 5077. Resistances are at 5230-34, 5246, 5264 and 5364. Nifty is struggling to cross recent highs of about 5257 (19/07) and 5267 (13/07). A likely +WW gives about 5260 while two likely -WWs give about 5169 and 5124 (once below 5205). The other -ww with lower level is not mentioned. Two likely rising wedges, which were mentioned yesterday did break down and may give 5155 and 5078 unless 5295 and 5333 resp. are taken out.

         Nifty has moved in a very narrow range in the last two days and, as mentioned yesterday, nifty now seems set to break out above crucial level of about 5250 or break down below about 5150. Thursday's candle is once again a hanging man. Hence, it is important to see opening level on Friday to confirm the bearish signal of hanging man or otherwise. Market's future now seems to depend on outcome of ECB meeting on Thursday evening. If it is good, we may see a gap up opening on Friday and then the gap created on 12/07 (5306) could be filled up. If news from Europe is not good, nifty will react.

2.         PCR at 1.11 and VIX at 16.77. Pre-open high/low at 5227.75/5184.70 and close at 5195.60. It may indicate that, though it will open gap down, it may remain flat or mildly +ve.

3.         One more +ww gives 5238 but looks difficult considering today's mood in market.

4.         Freak opening shows opening at 5100 and high of 5220. There is no 9.30 strategy for NF due to freak opening but as per NS data, sell above 5178NS target 5156 SL 5208. As per another web based software target is 5160NF. Hence, those who have carried their shorts may hold same with 5225NF/5208NS, whichever comes later, as SL.

5.         A bearish flag may give 5160NS.

6.         First -ww target met. NF not remaining below PP level. Short sellers be aware. Itching to buy with 10-15 point SL, quite against morning call considering nifty movement as of now. Bought a little. Nifty is flat for 3 hours and just around PP level and hence the contra trade.

7.         If 5207NS is crossed then 5221 and 5230 may come. A likely (bullish) flag gives 5213NS. Carry (longs) only if NF seems to be closing above 5252 and NS above 5230. remember yesterday also it looks like closing above that but did not.

8.         Flag target met. (Nifty) not crossing 5221NS mentioned above yet but I feel it should. To be safe, keep SL at 5233NF and get out at 3.28pm if it doesn't go to 5248NF. Sold.

9.       In view of bad news from ECB, nifty opened gap down in line with global markets but, as commented after the pre-open, it recovered to close mildly +ve though below yesterday's close. In the process, today's candle is once again a hanging man. The target of first -ww was met while that due to break down of first rising wedge was missed by about 10 points. However, NF showed a freak opening value and hence 9.30 strategy had to be based on NS values but its target was missed by 9 points and then the SL was triggered due to a 55 point rally from the lows.

Target of a bearish flag identified in the morning was missed by 5 points. A reverse/contra "buy" trade, taken after nifty remained flat around pivot point level for 3 hours, proved to be successful yielding about 60 point gain. A bullish flag identified in the afternoon also gave its target. To summarise, a satisfactory day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-02/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (02/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5238 and 5229 while other levels to watch are 5154, 5077 and 5032. Resistances are at 5246, 5252 and 5263. Nifty is struggling to cross recent highs of about 5257 (19/07) and 5267 (13/07). Four likely -WWs give about 5229/21, 5207, 5127 (once below 5189) and 4988 (once below 5220). Two likely rising wedges give appx. 5155 and 5077, if they break down.

As mentioned yesterday, nifty now seems set to break out above crucial level of about 5250 or break down below about 5150 as indicated by above mentioned -WWs and rising wedges. If Wednesday's outcome of FED meeting is good, we may see a gap up opening on Thursday but previous highs will pose resistance. If they are taken out, the gap created on 12/07 (5306) could be filled up.

2.         (Post by LLK) -ww target of 5229/21 NS achieved.

3.         (As per ) 09:30 strategy, SELL 5235 NF target 5209 SL 5265.

4.         A falling wedge break out gives 5242NS while a +ww gives 5247.

5.         +ww target raised to 5255NS.

6.         Note that NF stopped at an important "number" 5252. If it crosses it, it becomes a buy as per that number theory. Also, if and only if ECB news is good, we may see a gap up tmrw and further rise. All short sellers will be killed then. That's why I said don't fight liquidity. At the same time, if there is no good news from ECB, nifty may not crash although will surely react. I feel it may be a good idea to have a hedged position by end of day if NF/NS doesn't seem to be closing above 5252/5247.

7.         we may see nifty closing so that we see a plus/minus 150 point move tmrw (onwards) depending on ECB news and how global markets behave.

8.         Nifty once again opened slightly down, made a lower high and low than yesterday and also closed -ve and below yesterday's close. Target of one -ww was met while that of second was just missed by 3. However, like Wednesday, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered with nifty remaining in a small range of 25 points, clearly waiting for news from ECB today evening.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (01/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5221, 5194/90 and 5160 while other levels to watch are 5154, 5077 and 5032. Resistances are at 5234/37 and 5273 while other levels to watch are 5239 and 5256. Four likely -WWs give about 5202 (once below 5227), 5136 (once below 5180), 5102 (once below 5152) and 5015 (once below 5197). A rising wedge seems to have formed, which, if true and breaks down, gives appx. 5150.

Tuesday's candle is a Hanging Man. Although it is a green (white) candle, it is still a bearish sign. However, this bearish sign will be confirmed only if Wednesday closes below Tuesday's close. If Wednesday also opens gap down and/or it's a red (black) candle, it will be a stronger bearish sign. Nifty now seems set to break out above crucial level of 5250 or break down below 5150 and Wednesday's nifty movement will be important from that point of view. Note that there is a gap created on 12/07 (5306), which could be filled up in case of a break out. Wednesday is also an important event day when Fed may announce some measures in US and its outcome will have a bearing on Thursday's market.

2.         (AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY) TREND UP & BUY BELOW 5252, TARGET 5278, SL 5222 (all NF).

3.         Nifty opened mildly -ve giving hopes that it may confirm the bearish signal given by Tuesday's hanging man but managed to close +ve and also above Tuesday's close thereby negating the bearish sentiment for the moment and actually making it slightly bullish. But as indicated by the long legged doji candle of pre-open on 10tf, it remained as flat as it can be, remaining in only a 27 point range. However, once again 5250 proved difficult to cross. Obviously, under the circumstances, neither the target of 9.30 strategy was met nor was its SL triggered. Clearly, as mentioned in the first post, nifty is waiting for the outcome of FED meeting on Wednesday night.

Not many posts today as I was away. My apologies for the same.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/07/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (31/07/12)

1.         The supports are at 5194/93, 5184, 5176, 5151 and 5139 while resistances are at 5202/04, 5209/10 and 5219. A likely bullish flag gets nullified below 5184. The target will be known sometime after Tuesday's movement of nifty. Three likely -WWs give about 5172 (once below 5189) and 5048 & 5044 (once below 5180 & 5155). A rising wedge seems to have formed, which, if true and breaks down, gives appx. 5077.

As mentioned in the last post for Monday (30/07), the day candle shows a bullish tendency. However, Tuesday is the day of RBI policy review. Good or bad news from RBI may see break out above crucial level of 5250 or break down below 5150, which would be bearish. Note that there is a gap created on 12/07 (5306), which could be filled up in case of a break out. Always avoid trading on an important event day as RBI policy review or at least trade with caution and SLs.

2.         As it appears now, SLs for positional shorts and longs seem to be 5260 and 5150NS.

3.         PCR at 1.05 VIX at 16.60.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5234NF, TARGET 5203/5184 SL 5264.

5.         An inverted flag can give 5162NS.

6.         First target achieved.

7.         (Post by LLK) -ww target of 5172 achieved.

8.         Inverted flag target also achieved.

9.         Nifty opened up with a gap again taking cue from Monday's bullish candle and sentiment. It closed +ve and also above Monday's close. But as indicated by the pre-open candle, it was volatile, thanks to RBI policy review. It fell about 60 points after opening and then recovered smartly by about 78 points.

The first -ww target was met during the fall. Both the targets of 9.30 strategy were met but without giving an opportunity to enter into a trade at specified level, which came only after target was met. A bearish flag identified later also gave its target. Nifty closed with indicators at ovebought levels and in -ve div.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/07/12

LEADER POST for Friday (27/07/12)

1.         On the first day of new settlement, supports are at 5028/27, 5020/17, 4990 and 4940 while resistances are at 5044, 5056/58, 5090/91, 5110 and 5180. Two likely +WWs give about 5093 and 5101. Thursday's big fall indicates further downside but I feel that nifty may not go down by more than 100 points from present levels. Also, nifty has been falling for five straight days and, therefore, some upmove is likely on Friday. Hence, positional shortsellers should be careful with their SLs.

2.         5153 and 5190NS are crucial on upside, ………….

3.         On Thursday (26/07), nifty retraced more 50% of its rise from 4770 and a sharp recovery was expected but it is not clear how much that rise would be. A day close above 5150 will give first hopes. Nifty first rose by 1100 points from Jan, then fell 860 points, then rose 580 points and then fell again 316 points. The margin by which it rose and fell is reducing and hence there could be a big move in future but which way can not be predicted now, until subsequent higher or lower levels are progressively taken out.

4.         PCR at 1.1 and VIX at 16.37. Pre-open high/low at 5218.30/5043 and close at 5124.30. This is an inverted hammer on 10tf similar to Thursday's pre-open and market has gone up only twice in last month with such a pre-open.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5129NF, TARGET 5106, SL 5159. NOTE THAT SENTIMENT IS BULLISH TODAY SO TRADE WITH SL AS IT MAY BE TRIGGERED LATER. ALSO, CHART DATA IS DIFFERENT FROM ODIN DATA AND GIVES A SL OF 5153.

6.         (SL of 9.30 strategy hit) Now buy below 5155NF target 5183/86 SL 5125.

7.         It's so funny that target of down trend (first 9.30 strategy sell call) met after SL was hit.

8.         Nifty opened up with a large gap as was expected but, as predicted after pre-open, reacted to close -ve though well above Thursday's close. The gap was so much that resistances mentioned in the first post became support levels. Both the targets of +ww mentioned in the first post were met at open itself. Volatility was very high and SL of 9.30 strategy (sell) was triggered first but target of reverse trade (buy) was missed by about 3 points. Then SL for this reverse buy trade was also triggered and finally target of first "sell" trade was met. The fact that nifty spot did not cross 5150 and closed below 5100 does not auger well. The first few days of next week may show likely pattern in short term.

Unfortunately, I am unable to attach the intraday chart of nifty spot.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/07/12

LEADER POST for Monday (30/07/12)

1.         The supports are at 5096, 5086, 5071, 5027, 5001/5000 and 4964 while resistances are at 5106/08, 5134, 5141, 5167 and 5187. Two likely +WWs give about 5119 and 5154. The way nifty has behaved on Thursday (a big fall) and Friday (a big gap up and then sizeable fall) and the fact that it may open up with a big gap again on Monday, I wonder whether a bear trap is being created. This is because of a couple of possibilities mentioned below. Nifty seems to be in two channels since 11/7 and thereafter with lower and upper TLs limits at 5062-5167 and 5026-5134. Also, A falling wedge seems to have formed since 19/7, which, if true and breaks out, gives appx. 5250. To me, 5167 seems to be a crucial level now although 5187 is a good (age old) resistance. We can not forget that 29th June took out major resistance zone of 5170-5210 with a big gap up opening. Since nifty is critically poised, one needs to be careful with trading on either side.

2.         PCR at 1.02 and VIX at 16.44. Pre-open high/low at 5239.30/5070.95 and close at 5129.75. In the past market has been flat to -ve on such days except for one day when it went up.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5173NF, TARGET 5195/5210 SL 5143. Buy is already triggered.

4.         Both +ww targets met. A (new) +ww gives 5158 again.

5.         The +ww target mentioned above was met earlier but the target has now gone up to 5177NS.

6.         The first 9.30 strategy target met and new +ww target also.

7.         A flag gives 5204NS unless killed below 5164.

8.         Second 9.30 strategy target met.

9.         As I had stated in the first post, nifty opened up with a gap and continued to go up, closing +ve and also 100 points above Friday's close, contrary to what was felt after the pre-open. It also broke out of both the channels as well as the wedge mentioned in the first post.

It made a high of 5205.70 i.e. near the top of the strong resistance zone. In the process, both the targets of the two +WWs as well as 9.30 strategy were met. Another +ww identified later in the day also gave its target. Even the target of a flag identified later was met.

Today's candle is similar to the one on 6th June. Also, the gap created on 23/7 was filled today. What's more the upper TL from 10/7 was also breached convincingly. In general, a satisfactory day from trading point of view, being trending.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.