Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/05/13

LEADER POST for Monday (20/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6155, 6137 and 6041 while resistances are at about 6195, 6219 and 6245. A +WW gives about 6230 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs give about 6144 (once below 6183), 6110 (once below 6150), 6043 (once below 6170) and 6033 (once below 6198) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A rising wedge break down can give about 5985 if nifty goes and remains below 6133. A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 6045.

Nifty rose and again closed above 6150 after barely falling short of 6200 and continues to give a very bullish signal. It thus prevented formation of a Hanging man on weekly chart. Also, it is at a new high since mid Nov '10. However, -ve div on daily chart remains and long holders need to be careful. Also, a very high value of VIX and PCR can cause sharp falls and rises as seen this week. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Once again, be careful of high volatility as nifty approaches the all time high.

2.         PCR up at 1.26 and VIX down at 17.57. Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it crosses and remains above 6200 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6207NF, TARGET 6252, SL 6177.

4.         Target of +WW of the first post considered met.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of first -ww of the first post considered met.

7.         Since SL was hit, the trade was to sell above 6206NF, target 6159, SL 6236. As can be seen, target was met without giving a chance of an entry.

8.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and quickly made a new high. But it reacted sharply after 11am and made the same low as that on Friday. The targets of +WW and the first -ww of the first post were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit late in the day and the target of reverse trade was met without giving a chance of an entry. Daily candle is bearish engulfing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/05/13

LEADER POST for Friday (17/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6155, 6133, 6106, 6055, 6041 and 6008 while resistances are at about 6184, 6193, 6219 and 6244. A +WW gives about 6195 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs give about 6137 (once below 6167), 6109 (once below 6142) and 6033 (once below 6183) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A rising wedge break down can give about 5985 if nifty goes and remains below 6133. A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 6045.

Nifty rose again and closed above 6150 and continues to give a very bullish signal. However, nifty has to close well above 6162 on Friday to avoid formation of a Hanging man on weekly chart, a bearish sign. Also, a -ve div has appeared on daily chart and long holders need to be careful. Also, a very high value of VIX and PCR can cause sharp falls and rises as seen this week. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Once again, be careful of high volatility.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a flattish open unless it remains above 6173 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 6173NF, TARGET 6138, SL 6203.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 6196NF, target 6232, SL 6166.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of +WW of the first post met.

7.         Nifty opened flattish, tried to go up but quickly reacted. It then remained in a small range of about 31 points before rising suddenly in the last 30min to close +ve and also above yesterday's close. It also made a new high since 13/11/10 and closed at a new high since 12/11/10. The target of +WW of the first post was met but the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit near end of day and hence the target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is like a Doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/05/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (16/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6125, 6081, 6044 and 5995 while resistances are at about 6175 and 6220. Previous higher level to watch is 6812. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A number of small and big -WWs give about 6128 (once below 6152), 6104 (once below 6135), 6052 (once below 6113), 6024 (once below 6161) and 5960 (once below 6119) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A rising wedge break down can give about 5985 if nifty goes and remains below 6145. A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 6045.

Nifty rose sharply and closed just below 6150 and gave a very bullish signal. However, a -ve div has appeared on daily chart and long holders need to be careful. Also, a very high value of VIX and PCR can cause sharp falls and rises as seen this week. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. Once again, be careful of high volatility.

2.         PCR up at 1.25 and VIX up at 18.13. Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains below 6128 till afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6161NF, TARGET 6206, SL 6131.

4.         Nifty opened down with a small gap but rose sharply to make a higher high and then remained in a range of about 33 points to make a higher low before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. It thus made a new high since 16/11/10 and closed at a new high since 12/11/10. However, target of 9.30 strategy was missed by 8 points.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/05/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (15/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5977, 5928 and 5912 while resistances are at about 6018, 6042 and 6062. Previous lower levels to watch are 5928 and 5867. Four likely +WWs give about 6002, 6032 (once above 5963, which is yet to be reached), 6040 and 6088 (once above 6040) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges seem to have broke down and can give about 5936/5867 unless nifty goes above 6088 again. A falling wedge seems to have broken out and can give about 6088 unless nifty reverses and keeps going down. A bearish flag can give much lower level unless killed above 6045.

Nifty closed below 6000 again. More selling will come in case of a close below 5930. However, daily candle is a Doji indicating uncertainty and nifty can reverse. A close above 6110 is required for resumption of the uptrend. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high as nifty tries to find its bearings.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains above 6020 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6031NF, TARGET 6072, SL 6001.

4.         Target met without giving a chance of an entry.

5.         Targets of first three +WWs met. Targets of first three +WWs met.

6.         Falling wedge BO target of the first post.

7.         Target of fourth +WW of the first post also met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and never looked back. It kept rising to make a new high since 5/1/11 and closed at a new high since 4/1/11. It thus closed very strongly +ve and also strongly above yesterday's close. What's more it more than made up the loss on 13th May. The targets of all the four +WWs and that of BO of falling wedge of the first post were met. Also met was the target of 9.30 strategy trade but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a big bullish Marubozo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/05/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (14/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5927 and 5865 while resistances are at about 6011, 6022, 6057 and 6081. Previous lower levels to watch are 5928 and 5867. Three likely +WWs give about 6072 (once above 6043), 6096 (once above 6037) and 6104 (once above 6052) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges seem to have broke down and can give about 5936/5867 unless nifty goes above 6081 again. A falling wedge can give about 6088 if nifty remains above 5974. A bearish flag can give much lower level unless killed above 6045.

Nifty fell sharply and wiped out the gain of last five days. It has thus suddenly turned bearish. More selling will come in case of a close below 5930. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high as nifty tries to find its feet.

2.         PCR down at 1.16 and VIX up at 17.51. Pre-open data suggests a mildly +ve nifty after a slight gap up open, unless it remains below 5986 till afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6011NF, TARGET 6039, SL 5981.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5979NF, target 5949, SL 6009.

5.         SL hit now short.

6.         SL of reverse trade hit. Long again.

7.         Target of 9.30 strategy trade met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but was very volatile in a range of about 56. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing marginally +ve and also above yesterday's close. The SLs of 9.30 strategy trade were hit on either side before finally giving target of original trade. The daily candle is a Doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/05/13

LEADER POST for Monday (13/05/13)

1.         In the absence of NS/NF chart updated till 11/05, I am forced to post taking cue from Saturday's thread.

Supports are at about 6087, 6068, 6043 and 6018 while resistances are at about 6128, 6143 and 6220. Weekly TL resistance is at about 6255 for next week. Previous lower and higher levels to watch are 6025 and 6181. A likely +WW gives about 6130 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 6076 (once below 6126, which is yet to be reached), 6035, 6027 and 6021 (once below 6120, which is yet to be reached) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges can give about 5936/5867 upon BD below 6085.

Nifty rose again and closed at a new yearly high above 6100 and at a new weekly high since 31/12/10. Both the daily and weekly candles are Marubuzo. First sign of weakness and selling will come in case of a close below 6080 and then 6018. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high as nifty tries to rise further.

2.         Targets of all the four -WWs met.

3.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap but quickly reacted and continued to slide. It made a lower high and lower low than previous five days before closing strongly -ve and also strongly below Saturday's close. The targets of all the four -WWs of the first post were met. The daily candle is a big bearish Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/05/13

LEADER POST for Saturday (11/05/13)

1.         Supports are at about 6087, 6068, 6043 and 6018 while resistances are at about 6126, 6142 and 6220. Previous lower and higher levels to watch are 5928 and 6112/6181. A likely +WW gives about 6130 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 6078 (once below 6125, which is yet to be reached), 6036, 6029 and 6023 (once below 6120, which is yet to be reached) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two rising wedges can give about 5936/6857 upon BD below 6070.

Nifty rose again and closed just below 6100, above TL from Nov '10 high and at a new daily high since 5/1/11. The daily candle is a Marubuzo. First sign of weakness and selling will come in case of a close below 6018. Since Saturday is an extended session, a weekly close above 6083 is a must to maintain the trend. Only global cues and/or liquidity (including from DIIs) can take nifty further up. Volatility may remain high. Being a narrow 1.30 hour session, trade lightly.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a slight gap down open unless it goes above 6105.

3.         AS PER 15TF CLOSE STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 6121NF, TARGET 6147, SL 6091.

4.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap but then kept rising to close +ve and also above yesterday's close. Being a short session, none of the targets were met. However, the highlights of session were (a) a new high of 2013, (b) highest close of 2013, (c) highest daily close since 4/1/11 and (d) highest weekly close since 31/12/10. Both the daily and weekly candles are Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty future values with 5 min candles is shown below.