Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (25/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5684, 5678, 5661 and 5657 while the resistances are at about 5712, 5722 and 5733. Three likely +WWs give about 5698, 5714 and 5734 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5684 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A DT seems to have broken out and can give 5800+ if nifty doesn't go below 5634.

The daily candle is a bearish inside bar. Nifty needs to close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue the uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500. Thursday being expiry day, trade carefully. Otherwise trade in Nov series fut/options.

2.         Considering the inside bar candle of Tuesday, buy > 5722NS and sell < 5658 (risky sell < 5681). Unfortunately nifty may remain within this range and hence no trade unless you are carrying a trade overnight. In that case, I feel one should cover longs at about 5700 and shorts at about 5660. Best gamble may be to buy 5700pe below 5, which could come after 1.30 pm since I feel expiry may be around 5675.

3.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 13.71. Pre-open high/low at 5702.85/5667.95 and close at 5688.80. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate an uncertain and volatile nifty after a flattish opening.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5707, TARGET 5730/44 SL 5677.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, went up a bit and then reacted sharply before recovering again. However, in spite of being an expiry day, total range was only about 31. The target of first +ww of the first post was met but neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was met. The daily candle is once again an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (23/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5711, 5693, 5669 and 5627 while the resistances are at about 5726 and 5784. Three likely +WWs give about 5726, 5739 and 5758 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5703, 5684 and 5638 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A DT seems to have broken out and can give 5800+ if nifty doesn't go below 5634.

The daily candle is a bullish engulfing one. What's more, it seems to have formed a "Last engulfing Bottom", which is bullish, though it is not exactly at the bottom of a downtrend. Hence bulls still seem to be in some control.

Nifty closed above 5713 but needs to close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue the uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500. Expiry being 2 days away, trade carefully. Otherwise trade in Nov series fut/options.

2.         PCR up at 1.03 and VIX down at 13.04. Pre-open high/low at 5777.90/5713.85 and close at 5715.65. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer (topping tail) and may indicate a flat to -ve nifty after a flat opening, accompanied by volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5694, TARGET 5672/56 SL 5724. BE CAREFUL AS SL MAY BE HIT DUE TO VOLATILITY. BEST TO ENTER CLOSER TO SL THAN USUAL 30 DIFFERENCE.

4.         Target of first -ww of first post met.

5.         Target of second -ww considered met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, barely made a lower high and higher low than those yesterday but closed -ve and also below yesterday's close as was indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met. However, target of 9.30 strategy trade was not met. The daily candle is an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (22/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5678, 5662/60, 5650, 5647 and 5632 while the resistances are at about 5687/89, 5697, 5708/09 and 5755. Four likely +WWs give about 5700, 5753, 5764 and 5835 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5672, 5655 and 5615 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5708 unless killed below 5670.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5770. A DT can give 5800+ if it breaks out and remains above 5708.

 

The daily candle is an Inside Bar, which could be bullish. The weekly candle is a bullish Doji. However, while daily charts shows hints of a rounded bottom, the weekly charts shows hints of a rounded top. The +ve sign in favour of an uptrend is that daily candles consecutive three days have longer lower wicks, which may mean that bulls are still in some control.

 

Nifty closed just below 5686 and needs to close baove higher levels to confirm end of the recent downtrend. To start an uptrend, to begin with, nifty must close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.wever, while daily chart shows hints of a rounded bottom, the weekly chart shows hints of a rounded top. The +ve sign in favour of an uptrend is that daily candles of consecutive three days have longer lower wicks, which may mean that bulls are still in some control.  may take it down to 5500 H

The daily candle is an Inside Bar, which could be bullish. The weekly candle is a bullish Doji. However, while daily chart shows hints of a rounded bottom, the weekly chart shows hints of a rounded top. The +ve sign in favour of an uptrend is that daily candles of consecutive three days have longer lower wicks, which may mean that bulls are still in some control.

Nifty closed just below 5686 and needs to close above higher levels to confirm end of the recent downtrend. To start an uptrend, to begin with, nifty must close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 1.01 and VIX at 14.54. Pre-open high/low at 5948/5658.80 and close at 5667.60. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5694, TARGET 5712/29 SL 5664.

4.         First target of 9.30 strategy met. Targets of first +ww and first -ww also met.

5.         Second target of 9.30 strategy considered met.

6.         At last NS made a new high and closed above 5713.

7.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, made a higher high and lower low than those on Friday (though nifty fut made a slightly higher low) and closed +ve and also above Friday's close as was indicated by pre-open data. In the process, targets of first +ww, first -ww and bullish flag of the first post were met. Both the targets of 9.30 strategy were also met.

The bullish close also obeyed hints given by Friday's inside bar and last week's doji confirming that bulls are still in control. The daily candle is not only bullish engulfing but its close is also above Friday's high.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (19/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5716, 5702, 5688, 5652, 5644, 5632 and 5616 while the resistances are at about 5718, 5726 and 5770. Four likely +WWs give about 5733, 5750, 5792 and 5825 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 5701, 5687, 5680, 5663 and 5632 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5744 unless killed below 5673.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900 while a falling channel seems to have broken out and can give 5815 unless nifty goes below 5650 again. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. Another smaller rising wedge can give 5687/5651 if it breaks down unless nifty remains above 5730.

Nifty closed above 5686 (posted as the first condition for an upmove) in the thread for Wednesday but it needs to close above higher levels to confirm end of the recent downtrend. For example, it must go higher than 5752 and close +ve on Friday to give a weekly bullish engulfing candle. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR up at 1.07 and VIX down at 14.76. Pre-open high/low at 5985.25/5676.20 and close at 5703.30. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer or a topping tail and may indicate negative nifty after a slightly gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5704NF, TARGET 5674/54 SL 5734. The first 5tf candle is a hammer so trade carefully.

4.         First -ww target met.

5.         First target of 9.30 strategy met. Targets of first four -WWs also met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and continued to go down, staging a small recovery at the end as has been the case in the last few days. It finally closed -ve and also below yesterday's low as indicated by the pre-open data. In the process, targets of the first four -WWs of the first post were met as also the first target of 9.30 strategy. The daily candle is an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (18/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5654/51, 5642, 5638, 5633, 5624 and 5572. Resistances are at about 5671, 5683, 5703 and 5719. Five likely +WWs give about 5669, 5692/96, 5744 and 5788 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5657, 5640, 5615 and 5574 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5685 unless killed below about 5647.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900.

Though nifty fut closed above 5656 on Wednesday, an important number as per one number theory, market still looks nervous. 5630 to 5730 remains a crucial zone. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800, though on immediate basis, a daily close above first 5686 and then 5730 is required to begin with. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 1.00 and VIX at 15.17. Pre-open high/low at 5675.30/5462.05 and close at 5675.30. This is the second lowest pre-open low in a month. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5668NF, TARGET 5642/28 SL 5698.

4.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, could not make a new low and then rose suddenly to make a new weekly high before closing +ve and also above yesterday's low as indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first three +WWs and first -WW of the first post were met. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. NS closed above important level of 5710 but it's just the first step towards confirmation of further upmove.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (17/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5638, 5634/32 and 5582. Resistances are at about 5701, 5708 and 5760. Three likely +WWs give about 5722, 5770 and 5792 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5628 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag can give 5580 unless killed above about 5685.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900 while a falling channel can give about 5815 unless nifty goes and remains below 5589. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900.

The daily candle has formed a bearish "outside bar' and this may imply continuation of the present downtrend. 5630 to 5735 remains a crucial zone and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. Market looks nervous and may not show clear direction till major corporate results are out. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.96 and VIX at 15.57. Pre-open high/low at 5709.20/5648 and close at 5681.10. The 10tf candle is like an inverted hammer and may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5669NF, TARGET 5643 SL 5699.

4.         Nifty opened gap up but then started sliding down, making a lower high and low than those yesterday. It recovered a bit late in the day but yet closed -ve, though above yesterday's close. The targets of 9.30 strategy and -ww of the first post were just missed.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (16/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5683, 5657/55, 5633 and 5596. Resistances are at about 5691, 5695, 5709, 5722 and 5746. Five likely +WWs give about 5703/12, 5737, 5742 and 5760 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5669 and 5615 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give higher target unless killed below about 5667. An imperfect IHnS can give 5757 and 5815 once nifty remains above 5720.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A falling wedge seems to have broken out and can give about 5815 unless nifty falls and remains below about 5600.

5630 to 5735 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. Market looks nervous and may not show clear direction till major corporate results are out. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.97 and VIX at 15.90. Pre-open high/low at 5714.75/5687.25 and close at 5705.60. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         Targets of first two +WWs as well as that of flag.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5747NF, TARGET 5767/82 SL 5717. However, chart data gives opposite trend, so be careful.

5.         If SL is hit, sell above 5704NF, target 5682, SL 5734.

6.         SL is hit.

7.         Target of first -ww met. Target of 9.30 strategy almost met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap but made a higher high and lower low than those yesterday and closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process, targets of the first two +WWs, first -ww and the flag of the first post were met. The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered and target of reverse trade was met. The daily candle is bearish engulfing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.