Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (19/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5716, 5702, 5688, 5652, 5644, 5632 and 5616 while the resistances are at about 5718, 5726 and 5770. Four likely +WWs give about 5733, 5750, 5792 and 5825 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 5701, 5687, 5680, 5663 and 5632 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5744 unless killed below 5673.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900 while a falling channel seems to have broken out and can give 5815 unless nifty goes below 5650 again. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. Another smaller rising wedge can give 5687/5651 if it breaks down unless nifty remains above 5730.

Nifty closed above 5686 (posted as the first condition for an upmove) in the thread for Wednesday but it needs to close above higher levels to confirm end of the recent downtrend. For example, it must go higher than 5752 and close +ve on Friday to give a weekly bullish engulfing candle. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR up at 1.07 and VIX down at 14.76. Pre-open high/low at 5985.25/5676.20 and close at 5703.30. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer or a topping tail and may indicate negative nifty after a slightly gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5704NF, TARGET 5674/54 SL 5734. The first 5tf candle is a hammer so trade carefully.

4.         First -ww target met.

5.         First target of 9.30 strategy met. Targets of first four -WWs also met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and continued to go down, staging a small recovery at the end as has been the case in the last few days. It finally closed -ve and also below yesterday's low as indicated by the pre-open data. In the process, targets of the first four -WWs of the first post were met as also the first target of 9.30 strategy. The daily candle is an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.